Quote:
Originally Posted by Weevil99
I took the OP to mean that he failed to pair his non-pair hole cards by the river "31 freakin percent" of the time, while he expected this to happen only 17.4% of the time.
And that makes even less sense, since it should actually happen
44/50 * 43/49 * 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46 = 51.3% of the time,
which means he's running so hot that we'd have to consider whether the site was actually rigged in his favor.
TBH, I can't figure out what he was trying to say.
I'm not going to comment on every post individually, I'm lumping them here. I double checked everything and re-ran everything for 2 hours, mostly because the statistics are "impossible". But everything is in line with PT, and there are no mistakes.
Any other comments besides "I think he made a mistake in calcuations" or possibly "think he is lieing" are invalid. For example : People who say "not big enough sample" or "running really bad" or "playing wrong" do not understand statistics. If I was "playing bad" with these statistics I'd have busted out, lost my house and car long ago.
As for your particular response, since you think I made a mistake or meant something different then what I stated.... I already gave parameters in the original post and follow ups. I don't have the stats in front of me, nor do I feel like going back and finding the OP since it makes no difference. I believe total was about flop maybe 15-18%????? Anyway a specific # of hands of those 15-18% are already paired. Around 4% of the 18%. Anyway, as stated previously, I did not filter. I took only final hand values, which includes the board pairing itself and my hands.
so again I reinterate. 31% of the time no pair. Of the 69% includes board pairing, hole cards are paired, or hit a better hand. Obviously the vast majority of the 31% are played short handed or HU or 6h + were checked on turn / river. Otherwise I would have been in the poor house a long time ago.
Last edited by PJ222; 11-16-2009 at 05:40 PM.