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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,445 34.94%
No 5,522 56.00%
Undecided 893 9.06%
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:23 PM   #10376
solucky
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Most funny 35% believe its rigged and still play .

I am sure its rigged, i am sure its crime here, i am sure cheating is usual...but i am not so silly to loose my winnings in todays games.
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Old 11-11-2009, 04:41 PM   #10377
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by solucky View Post
Most funny 35% believe its rigged and still play .

I am sure its rigged, i am sure its crime here, i am sure cheating is usual...but i am not so silly to loose my winnings in todays games.
You were one of those guys that never cared about learning to play the game anyway and you milked bonuses for as long as possible while you could even with non winning play, which is perfectly fine, but that was never meant to last.

Many of the other riggedologists actually think they are good at the game. You never deluded yourself into believing that when it was not true. They do.


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Originally Posted by solucky View Post
Money managers get 3-5 % interest, poker players pay 4-23% fees
The winning players accept that cost as part of the equation and factor it in. If they have enough of a long term edge over the competition it works out. Basic business model essentially.
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Old 11-11-2009, 09:13 PM   #10378
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Re: Full Tilt Experiment

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Originally Posted by 5thStreetHog View Post
Possibly the best evidence in this thread that sites might actually be rigged^^^.
...until you look at the SS graph, and see he ran ok for 3k games, good for 3k games, and electrical jesus hot for 3k games, then had a bit of a downswing and breakeven stretch for 1k gamess.
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Old 11-11-2009, 10:19 PM   #10379
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
This all caps guy is probably just donko's latest troll gimmick routine anyway (guessing a moderator could do an IP check if bored), but a common belief within the genuine riggedologist claims is that the sites would of course cheat, I mean why not?

At this point I would be happy if they just explain why the sites would cheat specifically them while helping other players just like them at the same time (micro stakes losing players). Also, if they include more lizard people in their beliefs that would be appreciated.
LOL! No, its not me. I am now 90/10 not rigged/rigged. I used to be 60/40 before you mugs stabbed and beat some common sense into me.
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Old 11-11-2009, 10:42 PM   #10380
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Actually, I am not sure that is correct, I am sure there is a significant chance of it happening but it is not a certainty.

I'll call on spade to show the math behind this ie: what are the odds of a single chosen number being picked out of 1,000,000 after 1 million separate random draws.

I am going to totally guess and say the odds of it being picked at least once is about 70%.
This is a binomial distribution. The chance of a 1/1,000,000 event occuring at least once in 1 million trials is 63.2%. So your guess was close.

To the point of the post you quoted, if we did that million trials every day, we would in fact average seeing the event once per day, even though some days would miss (and some would have 2 or more events).

Last edited by spadebidder; 11-11-2009 at 10:55 PM.
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Old 11-12-2009, 02:44 PM   #10381
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Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

I went over a losing session where I lost 8 buys and a previous one where I lost about 7 with a successful grinder from PS. $2/$4. Neither of us thought there was anything too bad, maybe lost a buyin or two for betting too aggressively. Just looked like I was put in a lot of bad spots and my opps kept sucking out. Looked at other stats. VIP, PFR, 3bet all ok. I felt like my opponents always were making hands and I was not especially short handed. I thought that I just run either hot or cold.

So I looked at my hand stats. I used poker tracker and SQL. Over hundreds of thousands of hands.. Over 50k saw the river. The results didn't make sense to me. I thought I made an error. So I checked my logic a few times and ran them again and then compared #'s to poker tracker. After going through it a few times and going through the data in PT, it is correct.

Here are the stats of hands that made (or saw), the river, or opponents folded on the turn. Compared to statistical probability. Lots of short handed and HU.

No pair..... 31 freakin percent.... expected 17.4%
One pair.... 43.9 %...expected 43.8%
two pair.... 15.3% ....expected 23.5%
3ofakind....3.7% compared to 4.8%
straight.....2.8% compared to 4.6%
flush.........1.8% compared to 3.0%
Boat.........1.4% compared to 2.8%
4ofakind....3x less......straight flushes right on the money...

Even more crazy stats: Win at showdown ..

FH 78%. Straight 74%, 2 pair 48%. Almost 1 in 4 times I get a straight or FH I don't end up with the best hand. 2 pair hit on the flop is a losing hand for me $ wise.

My VIP (short handed or HU +6h +FR) is 24%, saw flop 22%. I'm starting with Pocket pairs 3-4x, which makes my "no pair" statistic absolutely disgusting, UNREAL. In fact, it's all disgusting. Hand selection should increase all these stats above average even with some of these hands only making the turn. I'm really too pissed off to go over my opponents stats, obv they are hitting FH or better 25% of the time when I have a made FH and hitting 2 pair or better more then 1/2 the time I am. I really don't have to, it's fairly obv.

After breaking everything down. My "cycles" are are explained. Everytime I reach a certain level of success or cash out, my "luck" inexplicably plummets and I run horribly bad. I keep hitting big hands on the flop to other players and lose by the river shown by my showdown winning %. Coolers a plenty. This cycle has happened more then 20 times.

I've always suspected there was a handicap as these horrible losing player donkeys keep calling down large bets and spew bluffing and keep winning. Like the computer system is picking a player to do well. I always wondered why horrible opponents making terrible calls (on my all-ins) or spewing when I obv have a very strong hand making my all-in EV graph 30 buys below expected.

OBV. The software is not just an RNG. There is handicapping. On pokertable ratings I see the same thing with a lot of other solid / good grinders. So if you encounter the same things I do, these horrible cold streaks over and over. Go over your play and check your stats. You might just be playing bad and / or tilting off lots of $, but if you find similar results like I have, your clearly being handicapped by software as well.

PS........disagree with me......some of you think it's completely legit, I can respect that. But if you are a clown that trusts unregulated software run by professional gamblers, you should be beaten over and over again. Pocket Kings is a known tax shelter.

There should be a strong movement here for the EU to ban all internet poker sites that refuse to be regulated / audited by the EU and or US.
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Old 11-12-2009, 03:02 PM   #10382
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

How long does the streak typically last?

Cause i really wanted to play today, but having cashed out yesterday, I am a little scared.
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Old 11-12-2009, 03:23 PM   #10383
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

i've cashed out plenty and never experienced this. I'm willing to bet I'm not the only one. It's all in your head OP.
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Old 11-12-2009, 03:25 PM   #10384
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

It boggles my mind how you can even beat a game without understanding some of its basic fundamentals such as variance. Be happy you ever won a penny. Oh yeah, you are not special, you are not preordained to win just because you play. You sound like my friend that loses in Madden every game then insists the computer lets the other team beat him. Narcissism ftw. A+.
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Old 11-12-2009, 03:35 PM   #10385
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 5thStreetHog View Post
It boggles my mind how you can even beat a game without understanding some of its basic fundamentals such as variance. Be happy you ever won a penny. Oh yeah, you are not special, you are not preordained to win just because you play. You sound like my friend that loses in Madden every game then insists the computer lets the other team beat him. Narcissism ftw. A+.
You just compared poker to madden, I can tell your a dimwit.

My sample is large enough to show that I'm not making hands greater then 3 standard deviations below the mean. Do you know what that means? Of course not because your a freakin moron who has no understanding of statistics, probability, or variance.
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Old 11-12-2009, 03:43 PM   #10386
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

maybe if you spent as much time on your game as you did on your op you might have better "luck"
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Old 11-12-2009, 03:43 PM   #10387
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

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Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
On pokertable ratings I see the same thing with a lot of other solid / good grinders.
This would be evidence to the contrary of what you are thinking might possibly be going on.

I'm also gonna go +1 on you not totally understanding variance
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Old 11-12-2009, 04:27 PM   #10388
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

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Originally Posted by TeflonDawg View Post
This would be evidence to the contrary of what you are thinking might possibly be going on.

I'm also gonna go +1 on you not totally understanding variance
If you really think that..... either your not very bright or your an adovcate of FT poker (Red Kings).

Anyway. I didn't do this for myself. This is for other players out there who find themselves running beyond cold losing buys fairly quickly in cycles. I've seen my opponents on PKT ratings going through the same thing. I know some of it is running bad and possibly tilting. Occasionally this will happen.

If this happens to you in cycles. Check out your play and your stats. #'s don't lie. Statistics don't lie. Only people do. SQL is a pretty easy to learn for anyone with 1/2 a brain. Probability is a bit harder, but even then, it's very easy to know when your getting screwed. Don't accept untested / unregulated software as legit. Make your own decision based on facts, your statistics, and finally observations (lastly).
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Old 11-12-2009, 04:33 PM   #10389
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

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Originally Posted by I.M. Baked View Post
maybe if you spent as much time on your game as you did on your op you might have better "luck"
Yes, a poker books would have made me make more hands. Where is this magical book? Mr. Wizard doing his hocus pocus make me hit more 2 pair, straights, flushes, boats?

In reality.... Mr. Wizard only makes you high and if done daily.... burned out.
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Old 11-12-2009, 04:49 PM   #10390
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
You just compared poker to madden, I can tell your a dimwit.
you just wrote this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
I went over a losing session where I lost 8 buys and a previous one where I lost about 7 with a successful grinder from PS. $2/$4. Neither of us thought there was anything too bad, maybe lost a buyin or two for betting too aggressively. Just looked like I was put in a lot of bad spots and my opps kept sucking out. Looked at other stats. VIP, PFR, 3bet all ok. I felt like my opponents always were making hands and I was not especially short handed. I thought that I just run either hot or cold.

So I looked at my hand stats. I used poker tracker and SQL. Over hundreds of thousands of hands.. Over 50k saw the river. The results didn't make sense to me. I thought I made an error. So I checked my logic a few times and ran them again and then compared #'s to poker tracker. After going through it a few times and going through the data in PT, it is correct.

Here are the stats of hands that made (or saw), the river, or opponents folded on the turn. Compared to statistical probability. Lots of short handed and HU.

No pair..... 31 freakin percent.... expected 17.4%
One pair.... 43.9 %...expected 43.8%
two pair.... 15.3% ....expected 23.5%
3ofakind....3.7% compared to 4.8%
straight.....2.8% compared to 4.6%
flush.........1.8% compared to 3.0%
Boat.........1.4% compared to 2.8%
4ofakind....3x less......straight flushes right on the money...

Even more crazy stats: Win at showdown ..

FH 78%. Straight 74%, 2 pair 48%. Almost 1 in 4 times I get a straight or FH I don't end up with the best hand. 2 pair hit on the flop is a losing hand for me $ wise.

My VIP (short handed or HU +6h +FR) is 24%, saw flop 22%. I'm starting with Pocket pairs 3-4x, which makes my "no pair" statistic absolutely disgusting, UNREAL. In fact, it's all disgusting. Hand selection should increase all these stats above average even with some of these hands only making the turn. I'm really too pissed off to go over my opponents stats, obv they are hitting FH or better 25% of the time when I have a made FH and hitting 2 pair or better more then 1/2 the time I am. I really don't have to, it's fairly obv.

After breaking everything down. My "cycles" are are explained. Everytime I reach a certain level of success or cash out, my "luck" inexplicably plummets and I run horribly bad. I keep hitting big hands on the flop to other players and lose by the river shown by my showdown winning %. Coolers a plenty. This cycle has happened more then 20 times.

I've always suspected there was a handicap as these horrible losing player donkeys keep calling down large bets and spew bluffing and keep winning. Like the computer system is picking a player to do well. I always wondered why horrible opponents making terrible calls (on my all-ins) or spewing when I obv have a very strong hand making my all-in EV graph 30 buys below expected.

OBV. The software is not just an RNG. There is handicapping. On pokertable ratings I see the same thing with a lot of other solid / good grinders. So if you encounter the same things I do, these horrible cold streaks over and over. Go over your play and check your stats. You might just be playing bad and / or tilting off lots of $, but if you find similar results like I have, your clearly being handicapped by software as well.

PS........disagree with me......some of you think it's completely legit, I can respect that. But if you are a clown that trusts unregulated software run by professional gamblers, you should be beaten over and over again. Pocket Kings is a known tax shelter.

There should be a strong movement here for the EU to ban all internet poker sites that refuse to be regulated / audited by the EU and or US.
that makes u pretty dumb imo
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Old 11-12-2009, 04:54 PM   #10391
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

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Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
You just compared poker to madden, I can tell your a dimwit.
Actually he compared the behaviors between you and someone he knows who behaves in the same manner. His comparison was valid. You seemed to miss his point.


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Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
My sample is large enough to show that I'm not making hands greater then 3 standard deviations below the mean. Do you know what that means? Of course not because your a freakin moron who has no understanding of statistics, probability, or variance.
Good luck having the real stat freaks back your research. Feel free to also explain why you specifically are a target when others who cash out never experience what you imagine is happening to you.

Feel free to call the world dimwits and morons while doing this if it makes you feel better.
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Old 11-12-2009, 05:20 PM   #10392
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post

Feel free to call the world dimwits and morons while doing this if it makes you feel better.
If you cannot understand facts or ideas, you cannot reach a valid conclusion. In all aspects of life. Probability / statistics are cut and dry. Interpretations can vary, but if you cannot understand the facts or ideas, you cannot have an opinion. Those people need to be called stupid.

People assume the software is truely random / legit. Built by gamblers. Red King a tax shelter. Those people need to be called stupid.

Anyway.

If you check online there are stats that show that middle hands win too often on FTP. Also, it has been shown that the best hand preflop loses significantly more often by the river then statstics would dictate. Those stats are not up for debate, it is fact. So at least, people have to admit that the RNG is flawed.
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Old 11-12-2009, 05:30 PM   #10393
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

I think OP has a point, is kind of stupid to trust blindly unregulated software, we all know they are there for the money not for the satisfaction we get from playing. If you think ft is rigged, you have dissadvantage, etc, etc, just dont play there OP
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Old 11-12-2009, 05:30 PM   #10394
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
If you cannot understand facts or ideas, you cannot reach a valid conclusion. In all aspects of life. Probability / statistics are cut and dry. Interpretations can vary, but if you cannot understand the facts or ideas, you cannot have an opinion. Those people need to be called stupid.

People assume the software is truely random / legit. Built by gamblers. Red King a tax shelter. Those people need to be called stupid.

Anyway.

If you check online there are stats that show that middle hands win too often on FTP. Also, it has been shown that the best hand preflop loses significantly more often by the river then statstics would dictate. Those stats are not up for debate, it is fact. So at least, people have to admit that the RNG is flawed.
lol prove it, it's fact because you read it some where?
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Old 11-12-2009, 05:34 PM   #10395
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
If you cannot understand facts or ideas, you cannot reach a valid conclusion. In all aspects of life. Probability / statistics are cut and dry. Interpretations can vary, but if you cannot understand the facts or ideas, you cannot have an opinion. Those people need to be called stupid.

People assume the software is truely random / legit. Built by gamblers. Red King a tax shelter. Those people need to be called stupid.

Anyway.

If you check online there are stats that show that middle hands win too often on FTP. Also, it has been shown that the best hand preflop loses significantly more often by the river then statstics would dictate. Those stats are not up for debate, it is fact. So at least, people have to admit that the RNG is flawed.
And these sources are from where?

Look OP, I know you tried really hard on your little stats project but let's consider the following conclusions and label them from mostly likely to least likely

(1) You miscalculated somewhere or your expected values were off
(2) You're just running really bad
(3) All poker sites are rigged against you

I'll let you figure it out
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Old 11-12-2009, 05:57 PM   #10396
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

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Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
If you cannot understand facts or ideas, you cannot reach a valid conclusion.
That is indeed the impression you seem to leave with many.


Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
In all aspects of life. Probability / statistics are cut and dry.
People with extreme agendas tend to interpret their numbers in ways that cannot be verified by other sources.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
Interpretations can vary, but if you cannot understand the facts or ideas, you cannot have an opinion. Those people need to be called stupid.
Your theory is one that should be extremely easy to prove in a way that is beyond you shouting a lot. Why not go to the probability forum and propose a project to do this with details as to how the research will be done. The stats freaks there are much nicer anyway.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
People assume the software is truely random / legit. Built by gamblers. Red King a tax shelter. Those people need to be called stupid.
Fine, let's pretend it is not random. Why are you a specific target?




Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
If you check online there are stats that show that middle hands win too often on FTP.
Cool, a new riggedology theory - "middle hands."

Lots have said worse hands win too much or big stacks win too much, but now we have "middle hands" win too much.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
Also, it has been shown that the best hand preflop loses significantly more often by the river then statstics would dictate.
I am assuming this is the study that shows that the best hand preflop in games wins x% of the time. You are leaving out the fairly important point that these were not just all in preflop hands. A lot of time the best hand preflop is folded preflop in games.

That study does not show what you believe it does, but if you have a different study in mind link it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
Those stats are not up for debate, it is fact. So at least, people have to admit that the RNG is flawed.
Sadly for you declaring things facts and saying it is not subject to debate does not actually mean that is correct, and in fact no true stats guy would ever make a declaration like that.

Hope this helps, all the best.

P.S. Thanks for the cool new middle hand riggedology theory
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Old 11-12-2009, 06:03 PM   #10397
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Let me get this straight, these are approximately 50K hands that you've seen to the river. If that's correct, then I don't think you've taken into account the decision making associated with poker and you can't compare your numbers to the expected numbers. That is to say that your sample space is skewed and not representative of a random trial.

If you take an even six sided die, the chance that 1-6 will come up is the same. If I understand you correctly, the same can not be said of your example as there is a previous decision that will affect your hands relative strength on th river and therefore, cannot be classified as a random trial. Imagine for example, a player who always folds the flop without a pair, regardless if he has to call a bet or it is checked to him. In that extreme example, this particular player will have a "No pair" 0% of the time on the river. For your example to work, you would have to get to the river no matter the previous action; however, there is also likely some bias in your preflop play. That is to say, you don't play pocket pairs and non-pocket pairs at the same frequency. It is more likely a function of you floating too often then something utterly wrong with the RNG. Hope this helps someone.
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Old 11-12-2009, 06:14 PM   #10398
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
Probability / statistics are cut and dry.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Twain
"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"
Also, in before merge.
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Old 11-12-2009, 08:55 PM   #10399
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

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If you really think that..... either your not very bright or your an adovcate of FT poker (Red Kings).
If you think THIS, then you're THAT...YAWN

I count two or three posts where you've said that and I believe one of the people you quoted has an IQ bordering genius (not me). Chill.

I typically withdraw from FT on a weekly basis Fri after rakeback comes in and I can tell you that Fri night, Sat, and Sun are not days where my roll magically shrinks compared to Mon-Thurs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PJ222 View Post
Probability / statistics are cut and dry.
Yes, indeed they are. Which is precisely why you're missing the point. This is also beside the fact that the probs/stats you're using are flawed. Someone's already pointed this out to you ITT. And +1 to Monteroy's suggestion, take the OP to a probability/statistics forum and let some poker players pick it apart for you. Hopefully you won't say "If you think THIS, then you are THAT!" b/c the idea of a forum is to not disrespect those you're asking input/help from.
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Old 11-12-2009, 09:08 PM   #10400
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Re: Full Tilt cold streaks / hot streaks ---handicap?

OP you're running hot with one pair hands, quit whining
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