mmmmm no

you wouldn't HAVE to play half a billion hands, you COULD do it in only six, its just unlikely


...i was recently playing on ftp and i kept track of the number of times i received pocket pairs....17 times in 158 hands...it seems a bit high but i dont know

also, i had pocket jacks 4 of those times and won only once, lost one to pocket 10s and one to pocket 2s the (someone caught an ace or something on the other one)

there was also a hand in which 3 people had pocket pairs, all beating the board....seems strange to me

incidentally, my reason for looking up this topic was this seemingly out of the ordinary string of hands, but i guess anything is possible

Just remember that the odds of getting any particular sequence of cards becomes astronomical if the sequence is long enough.

When trying to instill some idea of probability into beginners you'll usually find that they feel that if a fair coin is tossed and comes up heads 6 times in a row it's more likely to come up tails on the next toss.

One of the best ways to get the to accept the fallaciousness of this idea is to ask why they think HHHHHHT is any more likely than HHHHHHH. There are 128 possible outcomes for such a set of coin tosses and any one is as likely as any other.

It usually starts to get them thinking along the correct lines (assuming they are not daft).

online poker must be rigged....

You know how lots of micro players moan that the game is rigged because they get sucked out too much, yet noone seems to be the guy that benefits from all these suck outs. Im that guy...

Thats right. Im terrible at poker. I dont know what odds are and I dont really get why people fold. I generally just call to the end. People call me lots of names and according to the % numbers on my screen im always about 5 or 10% chance of winning. But I never lose! Its brilliant, and I dont know why, but I just keep sucking out on everyone i play. Sometimes I feel sorry for all the academics and scholars who study hard, have a perfect game, and yet always lose to me, but at the same time I bet they havent bought a house and a sports car with their micro stakes winnings. Sometimes I think about learning what the cards actually mean but I figure whats the point when all I have to do is call to the end every time.

So there you go. Next time you moan about poker being rigged, and the site being against you, just be content that there are a few of us micro stakes millionaires who always win. After all, with all the rigged sites and all the rigged hands, someone has to profit from it right?

Site and sn? I'll show you how to lose......

Wow, that's probably the worst call I've seen in my life. That's like 99.9% vs 0.1% on the flop. Sick.

Board: Qc Tc Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 97.778% 96.16% 01.62% 952 16.00 {KhTs }
Hand 1: 02.222% 00.61% 01.62% 6 16.00 {6s2d}

just a joke cooper....

Note to those who believe the sites are rigged.

Play something other than holdem. Nobody seems to complain about those games so either they aren't rigged or you can be the first to whine about how Stars rigs badugi or triple draw.

Get a pat 632A badugi heads up against someone who calls all the way drawing three, three, and two then after calling on the ends shows you a 5. Obvious proof.

Still stupid, but at least original.

I think full tilt HU SnGs are now rigged...

Now before you burn me (which I know you guys will anyway), I am a winning player and have won over 20k playing Hu Sngs since this May.

Lately though Ive been on a ridiculous downswing (Redrocket7 is my SN) and this is NOT attributed to bad play but horrendous luck. If you check my graph there is hardly any variance until I hit a certain point which all hell broke loose. I have to be batting .200 on coinflips during that stretch so I have decided to start tallying how well I do on flips (both preflop and on the flop when all the money is in)

So far I am 1-5 in flips and I will keep tracking this in the future...If after 1000 flips I am WAY below .500 in flips I will assume online poker is rigged

Ill keep ya updated

welcome to variance

Is the Main Event rigged since Cada shouldve lost atleast 5 times just at the final table?

Why just now?

no way this is variance for this long...its been bad for a couple months like this now with the horrible record in coinflips, If you look at my graph there are the 4 months where I started playing with decent volume and there is harldy any variance, now all of a sudden I drop 15k over 2 months while hardly ever winning any flips? Just doesnt add up

I guess when better players come along and start beating you, the only explanation is that it could be rigged. You wouldn't lose if it wasn't rigged, not you.

LOL

Why is it that whenever someone is beating the game, they assume that they are outplaying the field. But once they start losing, they obv. are just getting unlucky.

I was destroying the 220s until it SUDDENLY stopped...If over 1000 flips I am well below 50% what will you say then? I am keeping a very accurate reading of these flip situations and we will se where Im at after awhile

Make sure you do this OP

Did you not read the terms and agreements of FTP?

Get PT3 or HEM and import your hands, instead of using pen and paper or whatever the hell else you're going to use to "keep track".

Your SS shows you breaking even for 3,000 games, winning a bit for 3,000 more, then a gigantic heater for 3,000, then a downswing and some breakeven for ~1,000. Why do you only feel your crazy ass heater reflects your true skill/winrate?

It happens once in a while in Omaha but usually when a player flops top set, gets it all in and loses to a draw that may very well be a 60/40 favorite or more. Generally those that complain have no idea how the odds of that game work. I have lost track of the number of times I have been told how bad I was for sucking out when I was a slight (or healthy) favorite when the money got all in.

NL is a bit easier for people to understand (the odds at least) since they have seen it on TV, but you can see in this thread that many tend to exaggerate the odds quite a bit whether on purpose or through lack of knowledge. 97.8% casually becomes 99.9% as if 1 in 48 is the same as 1 in 1000.

I suspect that one of the reasons that some people feel online poker is not random is because they misunderstand just how narrow the edges are in a game of No Limit Hold'em.

confirmed they are rigged, I did the pen/paper thing already

so i dont get it. do you think that you are playing bots purposely put in there by FT, or that they are singling you out, or perhaps the player you are up against is seeing different cards than you and you guys are both losing and FT keeps all the money for themselves?

and most importantly, do you wear a tin foil hat to bed?

Merges can really make some posts seem strange since they break the flow based on the timing of the merged thread.

Anyway, good luck with this guy who plays a lot of HU at higher stakes and keeps track of his results on paper and pencil. Certainly sounds like he is using all of the resources available to analyze and improve his game.

Hopefully it is a #2 pencil, those were the ones that were important for tests if I remember correctly.


Save yourself time since your data is just whatever you write down. Just say you lost 95% of flips or something absurd, then ignore people when they ask for proof beyond what you write with your pencil.

Other riggedologists will believe you without question and you will feel comfortable that the losses have nothing to do with you or how you play.

Of course you will have no money, but you will have some emotional support of paranoid people, and you will not be to blame at all.

Making up your data quicker is also a time saver for everyone as well. Win/win.

Hope this helps.

best theory so far!!