what about a 100k sample?

SD for the winning players getting top 5% hands goes down to 0.54 SD.

Bigger sample size = larger # of SDs given the same mean offset.

ok so rather unlikely that a single player would notice then (I'm assuming most winning regs will have 100k hands but probably not 1M)

If we could get sample hands from losing players we could test this though right? There would be a negative correlation between win rate and starting hand strength over a huge sample size, wouldnt there? So on a datamined site, Im not sure this is undetectable, or at least Id have to think about whether it was undetectable when being done at a level that actually made a material amount of money for the site.

These are the right types of places to look though IMO, I think its hugely unlikely that a site is ever rigging the RNG.

but even with datamining you don't have all the hole cards and the sample will be skewed anyway, wouldnt it? the total hole card distribution would be unknown

It's definitely detectable by the individual losing player but he is getting a boost and has no reason to question it. And if he becomes a rigtard for losing then his actual stats will automatically contradict him. I elaborated in later posts, and he would get top 5% hands at 4 SD greater than expected in a 100K sample, or 13 SD greater in a 1 million hand sample. I hope there aren't many losing players with a 1 million hand sample. But the winning players we took the hands from would not have a significant offset because of the dilution, or even a significant effect on their overall win rate.

if an auditing firm runs an analysis on a huge sample and with all hole cards known, would it be detectable? since you're not messing with the RNG and just moving things around a bit the totals would still look legit, no?

It would not change anything when analysing all hole cards or hands together. You'd have to look at the targeted players individually, or know the profiling criteria to separate them into a group (which we made so broad as to make this virtually impossible). If someone went to a lot of trouble and detail, they might stumble on grouping all players who are xSD over expectation for getting top 5% hole cards (or some other %), and then find what else those players have in common (losing at x $ rate over time for y period). The fact that the correlation on one side is they are losers, and on the other side they are getting too many good hole cards, is contradictory and makes it really difficult to find. We're just making them lose a little slower than they would on their own.

I don't think I could find it.

Absolute NO, audits dont work in this way. At sample any industrial audit that i have done so far could be manipulated. And in Industry i could remove any ISO certificate if i look close enough.

A audit check if a site run the business like they descibe it on a special day....and the site know in advance that they make a audit

I know that's not how audits in general work, I'm just saying "what if", could it then be detected.

If it's the licensor making an audit or investigation, I'm pretty sure they can show up unannounced. If it's the standard RNG audit it is of course made on request of the poker site itself, so obv they will know about it. However *if* they were to ask them to do a full review of past hands (and have players verify the authenticity of the HHs, as with the Cigital study), there's really no way they could hide anything, is there?

hi everybody,

since i am new at this forum i was wondering myself if some of u have made the same experience with jokerstars then i did myself.
for me, it seems like jokerstars is trying to get players into the site always the same way.
its been always like this: first, i was on a huge upswing, playing solid poker and winning with the best hands. i have nearly 100x times my buyin and was very happy with my play. then jokerstars striked me and got like 70% of my complete roll back, just in about some days whereas i needed months to build it up the way it was. after that i cashed my remaining out to go atleast with a small profit out of this.
after some months of swearing to pokerstars and the stupid donks playing there and after several months of chatban i decided to recash again and stempled it as just some extremly unlucky case.
then the same story started again from the beginning.
it has even happened a third time now and as from that i once again decided to cash out my remaining small profits.
i may sound like some fishy idiot that cant handly suckouts, but u have to imagine that.
the last 10 minutes and 20 hands this happened:
i lost with middle set against topset
i lost with nutstraight on the flopp against runner runner flush (flop all in)
i lost with a-k against a-q preflopp allin
i lost with jacks against 22 preflopp allin
i lost with a-q on an a-j-6-6 board against k-q turn allin

i mean this is just extremely unreal and it was ALWAYS this way i lost a huge amount of my roll.
those things happened in 5-10minutes play, it is ****ing unbelievable. and i dont play 1231238million tables, i play 2 tables at the same time. and they ALWAYS happened in 20minutes.

now after reading my 1000 pages of whining, did anyone make the same experience as i did? i mean 3 times this unreal **** i seriously cant handle it anymore.

and now the question this whole **** is about: do you recommend any other plattform, maybe fulltilt? or am i just another donkish loser which is not able to handle suckouts?
i am defenitly never going to cash any single cent anymore into this ****ing jokesite.

thats finally it, steam is gone. thx.

This.

you should play on pokerstars, not jokerstars

AHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH JOKERSTARS I GET IT

Let me guess, you've never heard the term "bankroll management" before.

You don't say.

Admitting your problem is the first step.

yeah, and now pls anyone with a good advice.
and yes i heard about bankroll management and yes i did severall backsteps on blinds and no it didnt happen on 1 day cause once i am steaming i immediatly log off and take a break for 1-2days.
but thx for ur great advices poker pros.

What kind of advice do you want? Don't you think if they were going to rig it they would shave off a very small % of AA vs KK/QQ etc., requiring a massive sample to prove the bias, instead of getting hit with set over set etc?

Figure out your win rate and standard deviation, and find an appropriate bankroll plan based on that criteria.

Merge your thread, yo!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAwO1okR074

i was asking for an advice for maybe trying another plattform and ur personal experiences on those. could u mb recommend full tilt or some other plattform?
thx for the serious answer btw.

My experience is variance occurs everywhere they deal poker, so it doesn't matter where you play because IF the competition is equal your results will be the same.

no way that can happen to anyone...just no way

Please tell me that you checked your downswing button in options,is it on?

if you'd read the whole thing you'd seen i am not aware of beeing badbeat or something i am just wondering that out of 10hands where u are smth like 80% fav to win losing all is strange, you agree?

The platform has nothing to do with it. Bankroll management and your anger management are the only issues.

You may also not be as good as you think, and frankly you do not communicate in a way that indicates that will ever change. Never reproduce.


http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...-graphs-61228/

shows plenty of players who lose at a healthy rate from start to finish. The fact you ran hot early on is just a matter of math, some players will get lucky, while most poor players will simply lose. We rarely hear from those that lose all the time, since they never believed they were ever good to start (due to some good variance).

If playing on a different platform makes you feel better go for it, but that will do nothing to fix the actual problems, and after a few bad beats you will assume the other sites are out to get you as well.

Again, never reproduce.

Hope this helped.

yeah i guess u are right, thx for the advice.
actually to figure this out i dont think i am one uber talanted player, just a random student that enjoys playing some hands online and making some dollars, thats it
thx anyways

Soft sites do eas the pain more and turn some losers into winners so i wouldn't say platforms have nothing to do with it. A lot of rigged folk wouldn't exist if they were playing on the old pacific. rec winners dont think its rigged or really care much.