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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,445 34.94%
No 5,522 56.01%
Undecided 892 9.05%
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Old 10-31-2009, 12:25 PM   #10126
SwedishMedusa
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
Well, using my example then the winning players (who are likely to track stats), and sticking to top 5% hands being taken from them at the rate of 3/8000, if my math is right then on a tracked database of a million hands they will only be short 1.7 standard deviations for getting top 5% hands. 2.5 SD with a 2 million hand sample.
what about a 100k sample?
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Old 10-31-2009, 12:32 PM   #10127
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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what about a 100k sample?
SD for the winning players getting top 5% hands goes down to 0.54 SD.

Bigger sample size = larger # of SDs given the same mean offset.
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Old 10-31-2009, 12:34 PM   #10128
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

ok so rather unlikely that a single player would notice then (I'm assuming most winning regs will have 100k hands but probably not 1M)
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Old 10-31-2009, 01:22 PM   #10129
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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A thought experiment just for fun.

Here's how I'd rig the deal to increase rake in a way that is very unlikely to be detected. This is just a brainstorm without working out some of the details.

First, I don't mess with the deal. Use a proper RNG and deal the cards randomly, with one catch that I'll describe. Next, I keep a simple profile of players to know who at the table has been losing too fast lately. I need to slow down his losing a bit so that he can stay in the game longer and generate more rake before he goes broke. The worst players will lose the fastest, on average. My goal is to tilt the odds slightly back in their favor just often enough that they win a few good pots and are able to play a few more hands before going broke. This will also increase the chance that they redeposit after going broke, because they were closer to being a winning player.

I'm going to make up some numbers just to illustrate the idea. Remember that losing players probably don't know bankroll management or how many buy-ins they need to play a certain stake. If a player loses their $500 deposit after participating in (puts money in the pot) 200 hands at .50/1 with a 5% rake, and the average pot size for hands he plays is 12BB, and on average he is in the pot with 1.5 opponents, then his rake contribution should be about $48 (1 * 12 * .05 * 200 / 2.5). But if I can make him last 250 hands before going broke, then his rake contribution goes up to $60. That's a 25% increase in rake from all the targeted players who would be losing too fast. Let's say my profiling algorithm puts 25% of all players in that category. So I've increased total rake by about 6% if I can just get them to last an extra 50 hands per 500BB deposit. It would only take a few large pots won to accomplish this.

So how do we do it? After creating all the hole cards randomly, but before showing them to the players, I find my targeted player at that table. I then swap the best set of hole cards to him, and then play the hand without further intervention. He gets a chance to win a few pots, making him go broke more slowly. I place limits on how often this intervention takes place, and don't repeat it to the same player within certain intervals calculated to just accomplish the goal.

Losing players still lose, winning players still win, and the deal to the whole table is completely random. The only skew is that some players will get a few more good cards than they are supposed to. They are losing players, and they are the least likely to play enough tracked hands (or to track at all) to ever see that they get a few too many good hole cards. If I shifted 3 good hands to him for every 1000 hands dealt (he has VPIP 25%), he would need a large sample size to even notice that he got AA 2 SD more than expected, or AKs 3 SD more than expected. The skew would be balanced between being within the normal tails of the hand distribution, while giving him just enough boost to accomplish the goal of making him last a little longer before going broke. And the players who get the short end of the hand swap are diluted by 1/8 at a full table, so they are so close to normal that nothing would be noticed by them.


Discuss.
If we could get sample hands from losing players we could test this though right? There would be a negative correlation between win rate and starting hand strength over a huge sample size, wouldnt there? So on a datamined site, Im not sure this is undetectable, or at least Id have to think about whether it was undetectable when being done at a level that actually made a material amount of money for the site.

These are the right types of places to look though IMO, I think its hugely unlikely that a site is ever rigging the RNG.
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Old 10-31-2009, 01:25 PM   #10130
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by LetsGambool View Post
If we could get sample hands from losing players we could test this though right? There would be a negative correlation between win rate and starting hand strength over a huge sample size, wouldnt there? So on a datamined site, Im not sure this is undetectable, or at least Id have to think about whether it was undetectable when being done at a level that actually made a material amount of money for the site.
but even with datamining you don't have all the hole cards and the sample will be skewed anyway, wouldnt it? the total hole card distribution would be unknown
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Old 10-31-2009, 01:26 PM   #10131
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by LetsGambool View Post
So on a datamined site, Im not sure this is undetectable, or at least Id have to think about whether it was undetectable when being done at a level that actually made a material amount of money for the site.
It's definitely detectable by the individual losing player but he is getting a boost and has no reason to question it. And if he becomes a rigtard for losing then his actual stats will automatically contradict him. I elaborated in later posts, and he would get top 5% hands at 4 SD greater than expected in a 100K sample, or 13 SD greater in a 1 million hand sample. I hope there aren't many losing players with a 1 million hand sample. But the winning players we took the hands from would not have a significant offset because of the dilution, or even a significant effect on their overall win rate.
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Old 10-31-2009, 01:44 PM   #10132
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

if an auditing firm runs an analysis on a huge sample and with all hole cards known, would it be detectable? since you're not messing with the RNG and just moving things around a bit the totals would still look legit, no?
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Old 10-31-2009, 01:47 PM   #10133
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by SwedishMedusa View Post
if an auditing firm runs an analysis on a huge sample and with all hole cards known, would it be detectable? since you're not messing with the RNG and just moving things around a bit the totals would still look legit, no?
It would not change anything when analysing all hole cards or hands together. You'd have to look at the targeted players individually, or know the profiling criteria to separate them into a group (which we made so broad as to make this virtually impossible). If someone went to a lot of trouble and detail, they might stumble on grouping all players who are xSD over expectation for getting top 5% hole cards (or some other %), and then find what else those players have in common (losing at x $ rate over time for y period). The fact that the correlation on one side is they are losers, and on the other side they are getting too many good hole cards, is contradictory and makes it really difficult to find. We're just making them lose a little slower than they would on their own.

I don't think I could find it.

Last edited by spadebidder; 10-31-2009 at 02:15 PM.
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Old 10-31-2009, 04:00 PM   #10134
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by SwedishMedusa View Post
if an auditing firm runs an analysis on a huge sample and with all hole cards known, would it be detectable? since you're not messing with the RNG and just moving things around a bit the totals would still look legit, no?
Absolute NO, audits dont work in this way. At sample any industrial audit that i have done so far could be manipulated. And in Industry i could remove any ISO certificate if i look close enough.

A audit check if a site run the business like they descibe it on a special day....and the site know in advance that they make a audit
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Old 10-31-2009, 04:03 PM   #10135
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

I know that's not how audits in general work, I'm just saying "what if", could it then be detected.

If it's the licensor making an audit or investigation, I'm pretty sure they can show up unannounced. If it's the standard RNG audit it is of course made on request of the poker site itself, so obv they will know about it. However *if* they were to ask them to do a full review of past hands (and have players verify the authenticity of the HHs, as with the Cigital study), there's really no way they could hide anything, is there?

Last edited by SwedishMedusa; 10-31-2009 at 04:30 PM.
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Old 10-31-2009, 05:45 PM   #10136
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strange experience with jokerstars

hi everybody,

since i am new at this forum i was wondering myself if some of u have made the same experience with jokerstars then i did myself.
for me, it seems like jokerstars is trying to get players into the site always the same way.
its been always like this: first, i was on a huge upswing, playing solid poker and winning with the best hands. i have nearly 100x times my buyin and was very happy with my play. then jokerstars striked me and got like 70% of my complete roll back, just in about some days whereas i needed months to build it up the way it was. after that i cashed my remaining out to go atleast with a small profit out of this.
after some months of swearing to pokerstars and the stupid donks playing there and after several months of chatban i decided to recash again and stempled it as just some extremly unlucky case.
then the same story started again from the beginning.
it has even happened a third time now and as from that i once again decided to cash out my remaining small profits.
i may sound like some fishy idiot that cant handly suckouts, but u have to imagine that.
the last 10 minutes and 20 hands this happened:
i lost with middle set against topset
i lost with nutstraight on the flopp against runner runner flush (flop all in)
i lost with a-k against a-q preflopp allin
i lost with jacks against 22 preflopp allin
i lost with a-q on an a-j-6-6 board against k-q turn allin

i mean this is just extremely unreal and it was ALWAYS this way i lost a huge amount of my roll.
those things happened in 5-10minutes play, it is ****ing unbelievable. and i dont play 1231238million tables, i play 2 tables at the same time. and they ALWAYS happened in 20minutes.

now after reading my 1000 pages of whining, did anyone make the same experience as i did? i mean 3 times this unreal **** i seriously cant handle it anymore.

and now the question this whole **** is about: do you recommend any other plattform, maybe fulltilt? or am i just another donkish loser which is not able to handle suckouts?
i am defenitly never going to cash any single cent anymore into this ****ing jokesite.

thats finally it, steam is gone. thx.
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Old 10-31-2009, 05:47 PM   #10137
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

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am i just another donkish loser which is not able to handle suckouts?
This.
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Old 10-31-2009, 05:50 PM   #10138
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

you should play on pokerstars, not jokerstars
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:00 PM   #10139
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

AHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH JOKERSTARS I GET IT

Last edited by komaromy; 10-31-2009 at 06:01 PM. Reason: in b4 merge with rigtard thread
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:01 PM   #10140
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

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i mean this is just extremely unreal and it was ALWAYS this way i lost a huge amount of my roll.
those things happened in 5-10minutes play,
Let me guess, you've never heard the term "bankroll management" before.

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i seriously cant handle it anymore.
You don't say.

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am i just another donkish loser which is not able to handle suckouts?
Admitting your problem is the first step.
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:10 PM   #10141
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

yeah, and now pls anyone with a good advice.
and yes i heard about bankroll management and yes i did severall backsteps on blinds and no it didnt happen on 1 day cause once i am steaming i immediatly log off and take a break for 1-2days.
but thx for ur great advices poker pros.
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:14 PM   #10142
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

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yeah, and now pls anyone with a good advice.
What kind of advice do you want? Don't you think if they were going to rig it they would shave off a very small % of AA vs KK/QQ etc., requiring a massive sample to prove the bias, instead of getting hit with set over set etc?

Figure out your win rate and standard deviation, and find an appropriate bankroll plan based on that criteria.
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:16 PM   #10143
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

Merge your thread, yo!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAwO1okR074
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:16 PM   #10144
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

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What kind of advice do you want? Don't you think if they were going to rig it they would shave off a very small % of AA vs KK/QQ etc., requiring a massive sample to prove the bias, instead of getting hit with set over set etc?

Figure out your win rate and standard deviation, and find an appropriate bankroll plan based on that criteria.
i was asking for an advice for maybe trying another plattform and ur personal experiences on those. could u mb recommend full tilt or some other plattform?
thx for the serious answer btw.
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:21 PM   #10145
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

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Originally Posted by Simeon333 View Post
i was asking for an advice for maybe trying another plattform and ur personal experiences on those. could u mb recommend full tilt or some other plattform?
thx for the serious answer btw.
My experience is variance occurs everywhere they deal poker, so it doesn't matter where you play because IF the competition is equal your results will be the same.
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:24 PM   #10146
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

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Originally Posted by Simeon333 View Post
hi everybody,


the last 10 minutes and 20 hands this happened:
i lost with middle set against topset
i lost with nutstraight on the flopp against runner runner flush (flop all in)
i lost with a-k against a-q preflopp allin
i lost with jacks against 22 preflopp allin
i lost with a-q on an a-j-6-6 board against k-q turn allin



now after reading my 1000 pages of whining, did anyone make the same experience as i did? i mean 3 times this unreal **** i seriously cant handle it anymore.
no way that can happen to anyone...just no way

Please tell me that you checked your downswing button in options,is it on?
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:26 PM   #10147
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

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no way that can happen to anyone...just no way

Please tell me that you checked your downswing button in options,is it on?
if you'd read the whole thing you'd seen i am not aware of beeing badbeat or something i am just wondering that out of 10hands where u are smth like 80% fav to win losing all is strange, you agree?
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:31 PM   #10148
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

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Originally Posted by Simeon333 View Post
i was asking for an advice for maybe trying another plattform and ur personal experiences on those. could u mb recommend full tilt or some other plattform?
thx for the serious answer btw.
The platform has nothing to do with it. Bankroll management and your anger management are the only issues.

You may also not be as good as you think, and frankly you do not communicate in a way that indicates that will ever change. Never reproduce.


https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...-graphs-61228/

shows plenty of players who lose at a healthy rate from start to finish. The fact you ran hot early on is just a matter of math, some players will get lucky, while most poor players will simply lose. We rarely hear from those that lose all the time, since they never believed they were ever good to start (due to some good variance).

If playing on a different platform makes you feel better go for it, but that will do nothing to fix the actual problems, and after a few bad beats you will assume the other sites are out to get you as well.

Again, never reproduce.

Hope this helped.
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Old 10-31-2009, 06:47 PM   #10149
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

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The platform has nothing to do with it. Bankroll management and your anger management are the only issues.

You may also not be as good as you think, and frankly you do not communicate in a way that indicates that will ever change. Never reproduce.


https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...-graphs-61228/

shows plenty of players who lose at a healthy rate from start to finish. The fact you ran hot early on is just a matter of math, some players will get lucky, while most poor players will simply lose. We rarely hear from those that lose all the time, since they never believed they were ever good to start (due to some good variance).

If playing on a different platform makes you feel better go for it, but that will do nothing to fix the actual problems, and after a few bad beats you will assume the other sites are out to get you as well.

Again, never reproduce.

Hope this helped.
yeah i guess u are right, thx for the advice.
actually to figure this out i dont think i am one uber talanted player, just a random student that enjoys playing some hands online and making some dollars, thats it
thx anyways
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Old 10-31-2009, 09:36 PM   #10150
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Re: strange experience with jokerstars

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The platform has nothing to do with it. Bankroll management and your anger management are the only issues.
Soft sites do eas the pain more and turn some losers into winners so i wouldn't say platforms have nothing to do with it. A lot of rigged folk wouldn't exist if they were playing on the old pacific. rec winners dont think its rigged or really care much.
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