The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition - Page 403 - Internet Poker

You should also think about why the big stack in an MTT might be expected to win more all-in confrontations, on average. As stacks get smaller, shoving ranges get wider. That's basic tournament strategy, and it could easily result in a skew to the big stack, with a completely honest deal. The big stack's calling range is going to be narrower than the short stack's shoving range, on average. This should be true even with players who understand the concept of "effective" stack sizes. And the short stack will face multiple larger stacks at the table, by definition.

This is how you think.

His is more like

Me lose in MTT to big stack when me ahead. Me cheated. Me know - superprogrammers!

As a result, there tends to be a bit of a communication gap when you try chatting with those fellows

Quote:

Originally Posted by spadebidder

Think.

I do admire your optimism.

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10-29-2009 , 11:49 AM

#10052

CrashKid22

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 99

NO................. the question that is being asked is why is the big stacks consistantly winning the all ins at a higher rate which is more than normal when they are dominated or dogs going all in late in mtt's.....?

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10-29-2009 , 11:56 AM

#10053

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrashKid22

Sigh.

Let's assume that trend is true. If you go all in with a 70% favorite once in a tourney, odds are you win 70% of the time. Do it twice in the same MTT, on average you win both 49% of the time. Do it four times in the same MTT, you can be expected to survive only 24% of the time. How often does any player get to the late stages of an MTT without having been all-in 3 or 4 times? This is called survivorship bias. Look it up.

Last edited by spadebidder; 10-29-2009 at 12:06 PM.

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10-29-2009 , 12:10 PM

#10054

Monteroy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 16,729

And the gap widens...

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10-29-2009 , 12:51 PM

#10055

ufnacehole

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 24

My most recent account was at Cake Poker, and let me tell you, they are just as rigged as titan or VC poker. Short stack always has an edge if they push all in, acton flops out the ass... etc.

Sure, u will get your obligitory winning streaks, like the rest of the donks, but you will then be FORCED into coolers. IE, someone pushes on your AA and you end up loosing to 2 pairs, and forced to win back what you just won!

I have lost when all in preflop with dominating hands more times than i have won. This always seems to be the case when i am up, and i'm fed up!

I just want a site that dishes out the proper odds. I don't mind getting sucked out 20% of the time with AA, but it should not be over 20%!.

I'm staring to beleive that i'm jsut a donk that uses the 'rigged' theory to avoid the true reason for my losses because this seems to happen at every site i play at, but how can this be? How can the underdogs always have a friggin edge on me when i have made a decent amount of money?

Quote

10-29-2009 , 12:56 PM

#10056

DrBabyEinstein

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by ufnacehole

I'm staring to beleive that i'm jsut a donk that uses the 'rigged' theory to avoid the true reason for my losses because this seems to happen at every site i play at, but how can this be? How can the underdogs always have a friggin edge on me when i have made a decent amount of money?

It's called the long run, sir.

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10-29-2009 , 12:56 PM

#10057

novahunterpa

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,244

Is that you Lance?

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10-29-2009 , 12:58 PM

#10058

MissPoker

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 219

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10-29-2009 , 01:00 PM

#10059

ufnacehole

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 24

Are there any sites where you guys are satisfied with the odds?

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10-29-2009 , 01:02 PM

#10060

CPOner

adept

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 959

Quote:

Originally Posted by ufnacehole

I'm staring to beleive that i'm jsut a donk that uses the 'rigged' theory to avoid the true reason for my losses because this seems to happen at every site i play at, but how can this be?

this

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10-29-2009 , 01:03 PM

#10061

Ertai2

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 754

Play at a poker site that is Ecogra verified. None of the US-friendly sites are, go figure.

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10-29-2009 , 01:04 PM

#10062

wmwmw

banned

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 36

Quote:

Originally Posted by ufnacehole

Are there any sites where you guys are satisfied with the odds?

Live poker.

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10-29-2009 , 01:05 PM

#10063

thehempy

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 976

Quote:

Originally Posted by ufnacehole

Are there any sites where you guys are satisfied with the odds?

every.single.one.

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10-29-2009 , 01:05 PM

#10064

nineinchal

banned

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 5,616

Quote:

Originally Posted by ufnacehole

I'm staring to beleive that i'm jsut a donk that uses the 'rigged' theory to avoid the true reason for my losses because this seems to happen at every site i play at

This^^^+1

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10-29-2009 , 01:05 PM

#10065

BLAABAR

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,699

Pokerstars is not rigged! specially 100nl 6-max, come and try!

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10-29-2009 , 01:06 PM

#10066

Gerv

Formerly Giantian

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,325

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10-29-2009 , 01:06 PM

#10067

Markusgc

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 8,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skokky

Look at the report done on a million hands of stars all ins elsewhere on this forum.

That independant report also said that bigger stacks were winning 50% of allin hands with atc .

either it happens or it doesn't imo.

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10-29-2009 , 01:09 PM

#10068

ufnacehole

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ertai2

Play at a poker site that is Ecogra verified. None of the US-friendly sites are, go figure.

TY for this suggestion.

Ecogra verified sites are

7 Sultans Poker (FL) Gaming Club Poker (BR)
River Belle Poker (BR) Poker Room
Royal Vegas Poker (FL) Trident Poker (TG)
Aztec Riches Poker (CR) Poker Rewards (CR)
Captain Cooks Poker (CR) Roxy Poker
Golden Tiger Poker (CR) Virtual City Poker

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10-29-2009 , 01:09 PM

#10069

Fistdantilus

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 2,891

OP:

~60% of players are contributors, ~30% can't beat the rake.

Why is it soooo hard to believe you're in the group of 90%?

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10-29-2009 , 01:12 PM

#10070

ufnacehole

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fistdantilus

OP:

~60% of players are contributors, ~30% can't beat the rake.

Why is it soooo hard to believe you're in the group of 90%?

Because i just made my second $1500 cashout from Cake poker in less than a month from a $50 initial deposit.

However, i should have about $2000 more if it wasn't for the rigged software (or just plain bad luck).

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10-29-2009 , 01:15 PM

#10071

jukofyork

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 11,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by ufnacehole

I'm staring to beleive that i'm jsut a donk that uses the 'rigged' theory to avoid the true reason for my losses because this seems to happen at every site i play at, but how can this be? How can the underdogs always have a friggin edge on me when i have made a decent amount of money?

Juk

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10-29-2009 , 01:19 PM

#10072

Fistdantilus

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 2,891

Quote:

Originally Posted by ufnacehole

Right. One cashout makes you a proven winner at your limit, immune to variance forever. I'd wager that you can't show a DB with a 100K sample of you winning.

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10-29-2009 , 01:24 PM

#10073

sure

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 113

OP,

Please feel free to post statistics. Let's be very specific: you mention AA. How often have you had AA at Cake, say, and can you post a screen shot from HEM/PT showing your win percentage with AA over a meaningful sample? You know, just something a little more specific than you saying "this and this happened."

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10-29-2009 , 01:27 PM

#10074

ufnacehole

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by sure

LOL why is this so hard for you people to beleive? Aren't you guys raking in the dough too?

I have no stats, as these programs will get your account closed at cake poker.

But if anyone wants to make a wager, i can post a screenshot of my transaction history.