Quote:
Originally Posted by latanyawilliams
This has been in palce from the very begining of online poka. The ole time pro call is the ACTION SHUFFEL.
and it is easy to prove. the atempts to prove online is rig shuld analize how offen the underdog wins through the riva card.
IT WILL NOT BE THE RANDOM AMOUONT.
You're correct that the river cards (and all board cards) are not totally random, but for entirely the wrong reasons. There's no need to look at underdogs or winners to check this, simply check the distribution of river cards to see if it looks skewed.
Players choose when to see flops, then when to continue to the turn, then when to continue to the river. Only a portion of boards are dealt. If they were all dealt, they would be totally uniform and random and every card would show on every street at a rate of 1/13 (1/52 considering suit). But since we have a
well-known removal effect where players tend to see flops when holding high cards, the board will contain more low cards than high cards. And this effect becomes more pronounced for the turn, and even more pronounced for the river, as player requirements to continue in the hand become more strict at later streets.
Notice in the graph below that the three flop cards are essentially uniform for each rank, with a smooth transition from low to high. Then the turn shows more difference between low and high, the river more still. Players who get to the river tend to hold about the same number of Tens thru Kings, but significantly more Aces, leaving fewer that can hit the board. Eights, the median card, are exactly on the expected average. And going down from Eights, the lower cards increasingly show up on the board.
This graph is part of a larger analysis that goes much further than this gross distribution, breaking down card patterns related to poker hands. I'll be publishing it soon. I also have this distribution for various table sizes and various stakes. This one is full ring excluding high stakes and micro stakes, and represents the typical structure for the vast majority of online NLHE cash games. Click to enlarge.
and to see a more pure version of the removal effect with less noise, just look at heads-up games. Here you can see that Kings are favored more than other broadway cards, and Aces still more (as expected). And players don't like to play hands containing a deuce thru five. All very reasonable.
Last edited by spadebidder; 10-26-2009 at 09:24 AM.