He probably mispoke by saying handhistories. When saying "too much of this type of hand is showing up" the least you could do is let us know how many of that type of hand you're seeing, what your sample size is, and how often you think you should be seeing this type of hand.

I'm usually one of the least harsh of the regulars in this thread, so if my comment was harsh then I apologize. However, the poster I was responding too is well versed in this thread and has come up with all sorts of crazy theories, without one shred of evidence himself.

What is beyond comprehension is saying that the sites providing everyone their handhistories is somehow suspicious. Actually, I don't think I was harsh. I don't think I was insulting even. I stated a simple fact that his argument is beyond comprehension. It simply doesn't make sense.

Just because there may be OTHER things a company can do to show they are a clean operation, does nothing to diminish the things they do do. The superusers were caught primarily because the sites allowed the downloading of personal handhistories. Just because there may be some people who don't know what to do with them doesn't mean that there are not some people who do. Several of those are in this thread.

There are plenty of poker players who go over their handhistories with fine tooth combs. Transparency doesn't mean that EVERYONE will know what to do with the data, the fact that many people do allow some degree of a sense of security and more confidence that issues like the AP/UB scandal will come to light.

Posting millions of handhistories will certainly make the dataminers happy, but I suspect most of the online poker players will be ill served by having the mass multitablers knowing that much more about their playing style, without ever having played a hand against them. Plus even then toltec would demand the sites provide a free tracking program and give online courses on how to import the hands and run analysis on them.

I'd say that's an excellent start, Josem. If PokerStat can do that, PT3 and HEM should be able to as well I would think.

I just quickly scrolled through flops that had been seen and counted monotone ones, so it wasn't the most scientific method. Thanks for the actual math, I'll try and figure out a way to filter flops in PT3 to see exactly how many I saw. You're right, actual hand histories would have cluttered the thread up and gotten him bitched out. I just find it odd that he can say that 2 to a flush, 3 to a straight flops are the most common "action flop" on FTP and have nothing to back it up with, even if it is just some cherry picked hands.

I'll finish up the community card analysis within a week or so and publish a statistical breakdown of several hundred million boards. I can tell you now that it doesn't show anything suspicious, just a few interesting removal effects due to when players choose to see flops.

I look forward to the data and also the "nothing suspicious is suspicious - what are the really hiding" creative conspiracy theories it helps produce as well.

2 more weeks? 2 weeks for nothing. The HH's you are analyzing won't prove if a Poker site cheats....kinda mundane doncha think?

See, that did not take long...

I'm not saying they make a living being shills- that would not be reasonable. I am just saying their motivation to post in this thread goes beyond what I have ever seen as far as internet debating on the same subject with new people posting the same arguments against them. Believe me I have wasted huge amounts of time debating politics or whatever on the web. I find it enjoyable and I find it a much more informed debate than discussing things with friends since your friends tend to agree with you anyway and on the internet people have more time to think about their posts (too bad only some people take advantage of that). I've just never seen the same small group of people constantly defend the same topic against a rotating group on the other side.

Maybe they are paid to do it, maybe they work for online poker companies in some way, maybe they make a living playing online and are overly paranoid about fish thinking it is rigged. Whatever their motivation is it is clearly more than just intellectual engagement, especially when you consider they seem to have zero respect for anyone thinking anything other than that those who run quasi legal offshore unregulated gaming establishments are 100% trustworthy. I mean we are not talking about an emotional issue here like does god exist? or is abortion wrong? are gun laws unconstitutional. These are issues people care deeply about on an emotional level and intellectual level. But to just tirelessly talk in circles about this issue for months (years?) doesn't ring true to me unless there was some other extra motivation.

Well put. Keep up the good work

If it was the same people making the same arguments, you might have a point.

I don't think you've seen as much of the 'net as you think you have if you haven't seen Usenet newsgroups or other sites where a group of people keep having the same arguments again and again with an ever changing tapestry of posters.

Different people chat about different things for different reasons. I linked a 9/11 debate thread a few days ago, and if you think the opinions here are unusual just check that one out in the NVG forum. That's just the nature of online discussion threads, nothing more.

This one is not really that much different except the conspiracy guys are a bit dumber than the equivalent conspiracy 9/11 guys, but that makes sense as poker conspiracy guys tend to not get basic math and cannot beat a relatively simple game while 9/11 "truthers" tend to be eccentric in their thinking but on the more smart but nuts side of the spectrum. Ok, the guy who talked about bloodlines was pretty dumb, so it is more a macro observation.

You indicate that you like talking about politics and no doubt many of those discussions gets heated or sarcastic at times. When that happens if someone in the chat starts theorizing that those who do not agree with him is secretly a government spy/shill how exactly are they treated?

I suspect "umm, huh?" with a confused chuckle is the response.

Dude, you one of those guys creating that response here.

All huge threads on any topic will have regulars/semi regulars/casual observers etc. This thread is no different - the fact that routine, mundane behavior in this thread baffles you is a bit odd if you are familiar with the whole internets thing. You are not that oldmoose guy (assuming he is genuine) who is still living in the days where punch cards are used for programming.



If you want respect for your opinions then back your claims with evidence. This thread is a collection of people who have hundreds of different rigged and other paranoid beliefs but have yet to prove a single thing.

How do you handle political debates when posters claim that Obama is the anti-christ or that Bush is the anti-christ because they know it is true and they know other people believe it is true?

A debate about the future of online poker and the ideal state of regulation is welcome, but how can it be based on a premise that every site uses secret ninja style superbots to rig games against people here when they lose $5.



That's you creating a conspiracy out of something you cannot understand (ie: other people's behavior), and your beliefs as to what issues should and should not be important or emotional is totally subjective.

The world does not share your view of it on all things, your inability to realize that different people are motivated by different things for different reasons confuses you when confronted by it, and instead of just realizing it is what it is (ie: people are different), you need to create a creative theory as to why these people are different (ie: they must be secretly paid shills).

In the end you can believe whatever you like, and I do not expect this post to change your thinking one bit. In fact, it likely will make you believe whatever shill conspiracy you have in mind even more.

Perhaps that was the point all along though...

All the best.

Not really.

It's just the same old, lame old: I haven't got any evidence so I'll attack the people who ask for it.

It's just another tired old ad hominem.

I've explained my personal motivations before. I'm a scientist. I'm also a member of skeptics organizations. I'm a science fair judge. Etc. If you haven't picked up on the pattern, it's important to me to promote sound, skeptical reasoning skills. This includes important things like being able to discern crackpot medicine from the genuine article. But it's a generic skill you can apply to almost anything. Seeing how to apply the skills here would allow a person to apply them to all areas of their lives.

And it's not the tinfoil hat wearing people reading this thread I expect to suddenly convert. It's the lurkers reading it I hope learn the underlying scientific methods for tested hypothesis to sift theories to determine truth from nonsense. And that IS something I am quite pationate about, enough to volunteer a lot of my time working on.

Short version: it's far more important to me that people learn how to use skeptical reasoning skills when confronting a questionable assertion then coming to a particular belief about the trustworthiness of online poker dealing.

I just like being arrogant to paranoid and/or emotionally unstable people once in a while to see how they react. I really don't care if anyone changes their mind about anything whether they be riggedologists, lurkers, Lizard Men etc.

Different people have different motivations.

Aaron's is nicer and more productive.

Mine is more fun.

Yeah, that's where we scientists seem to always lose .

Monteroy, QPW, Spadebidder are no doubt shills.

So your taking a "religious crusade" approach towards rigtards. Converting all the heathens and savages into glorious believers in a possible money making scheme. See I think religious converts took up religion to better their lives and the lives of others. So what exactly is it that your trying to accomplish behind converting new rigtards? Is that going to make the Poker World a better place or make it easier for us all to get cheated.
Honestly, this website isn't worth jeopardizing my personal safety. So I keep my mouth shut to that extent....

You could not have done a worse job trying to understand what I wrote. Please try again.

Being not one of those people I would love to place a wager against you.

I suggest you select whichever one you think is most likely to be a shill, and then we wager, say, $5,000 even money? And I suggest we ask said person for a copy of their 1040 in exchange for $1,000 from the winner of the bet with their SSN blacked out. We could have some mutually agreed upon trusted third party keep the $10,000 and check the 1040. Of course this would depend on your shill also agreeing to supply a copy of their 1040 for the sum of $1,000 to the trusted 3rd party.

Since you have "no doubt" about this, this is a lock for you.

You underestimate him.

Interesting wager. However, that would cost whichever pokersite or "software devloper" too much money in lost revenue if they were to reveal they post here for a salary. Let's be honest, if QPW came out and said, I get paid by XXXX.com to post here, one would question the integrity of that site/company and discredit every single post he ever typed IN THIS THREAD.

Josem posts in this thread and is from PokerStars. Not a problem w/ me what so ever. I'm actually glad and think it's great he takes the time to post here and actually be helpful inside and outside of this thread. He has a straight up approach to into a company he believes in. Not only a credible source of knowledge but an honest and trust worthy part of this community.

So to clarify when and whenever I've said, or refferred, to a shill, I never meant that towards MJ.

Haha! Good thing I asked that first, that was only part 1 to what I was getting at. It was in this thread, when the rng discussion was going on about 2 months ago. I was being lazy i guess. I'll be back....

What? The 1040 wouldn't say whether or not he was paid to post here or not it would just say what company he works for. If you discredit everything Josem says because he works for a poker site then you are an idiot.

Of course that would throw everything he every posted into question. He would be shown to be an absolute liar. That's why I'm not suggesting we take his word at it.

In fact if you like we can even insist upon using IRS form 4506-T "Request for Transctipt of Tax Return" to get the prior tax return of your selected shill straight from the IRS instead.