The goal of this post is to help/educate even one single person and help them make the right choice to save them money and/or become a better poker player. Please read this, it is going to be lengthy but it is worth 10 or so minutes read, I promise.
I'm going to start off by saying that; I am not paid by any site/group or anything to make this post. I favor absolutely no group or company and that I am writing this as I sit in my home at 4:43AM on October 6th, 2020. I am a real person and everything you are about to read is the 100% truth. Please read these before you decide to play or continue to play online poker (or any online form of gambling for that matter. Don't play online casino games either, total scam).
I'm in my 30s and I have been playing poker for about 15-16 years (half my life). I started like most of us by playing at home with family/friends and grew to love the game. Like most of us gamblers, I was excited to be a winner when I first started but as we all know, winning the first time you gamble is a curse ha.
Anyways, after months of playing as a rec, I started to play online as a teenager. I played on Full Tilt Poker and was a profitable player, even winning 2K in a single tournament at one point. That may not sound like a lot, but when you are 16/17 and have $200 in your bank account, it is a big deal.
So I go on to college and continue to play online for a couple more years. Now, I will admit, back in the 2000s, I didn't know anything about how online poker worked or anything like that. I just played the game to the best of my ability and didn't think otherwise about anything good or bad that happened. I assumed I was just better than the average duck.
So, years go by from when I first started and finally Black Friday in April 2011 rolls around. I remember I was in a tournament on Full Tilt when it happened. I was sitting in my girlfriends dorm room senior year playing in a tournament while she was in class. It was how I helped pay for food and everyday expenses while everyone else had a part time job. I remember thinking the internet froze but when I restarted the client, the FBI logos showed up and I nearly shat my pants. Eventually, like the rest of us, I learned what really happened. (FYI, I had about $1K in my account if I remember correctly and I never received any money after that).
So now poker in the US is a hot button issue for years to come. As time went on, I learned the game more, studied and actually became what is considered a pretty good player. I played at casinos on occasion and eventually started playing online when sites like Bodog, Ignition and Americas Cardroom started becoming popular. As I started playing online again, I noticed things were a lot different.
Now, of course there were bad players pre Black Friday. But for some reason, the players seemed to start getting worse bet also luckier. It became quite frustrating. Eventually, I decided to stop playing online for awhile. At this point, I have become a profitable player at casinos and was profitable online pre Black Friday but when it came to online years later, I began to lose money quite frequently.
Now, you can argue that I was falling behind while others were getting better but I could tell it wasn't me being outplayed, it was a lot of being out drawn, waayy to much. Even when I would win, I would be getting way luckier than I should be (runner runners, 3 or less outers, lower pocket pairs sucking out, etc.).
So after years of on and off again online poker, I decided enough was enough and that I was done. The so called "variance" online was just way to much and not worth my time and money. However, I continued to play at casinos and home games and continued to be profitable.
Now, with the COVID pandemic going on since March, Casinos have closed and poker games have stopped. Online poker is legal in my state so I decided to give it another go, ignoring any ill thoughts I had from past experiences. Big mistake.
So PokerStars is one of the legal sites in my state. After playing for about six months, I finally hit my breaking point, although I should have learned my lesson sooner. I have won quite a few MTT and plenty of SNGs. However, the so called "variance" was just too much. The forced action hands that pit mega draws (straight flush draws) against full houses, sets vs over sets, stragiths vs flushes, etc. was remarkable. Over pairs preflop against lower pairs (AA vs KK, KK vs QQ, etc.) AK vs AQ, AQ vs AJ, AK vs AA, etc. happened at way too high of a rate. I realized after about a month that the so called "RNG" was clearly flawed or "rigged" as some would say.
I read some stories on forums and of course a lot of people seem to think it is flawed while others seem to think it is just variance. Now, I understand that I am playing more hands online than I am in person because I play multiple tournaments and what not but it is still not at a realistic rate the bad beats and setups that I have seen. It is 100% clear that Pokerstars is forcing action with set up hands to build pots and move action along quicker, all the more making us play more. Also, I have read about a "fair play" algorithm that does its best to help players win/loss at a consistent rate to keep people interested and playing while the site banks off the rake. I can't prove that is the case, but in my honest opinion I 100% belive that is the case.
So about a month into my "legal" Pokerstars expiernce, I began to track my hands to see if something is indeed fishy or that I am being paranoid and a sore loser. After about 4 months of tracking all-in preflop hands on Pokerstars, I found out that over a course of over 45,000 hands, my average % all in was 59% in my favor compared to 41% against my opponent. That is a very high rate. So what percentage of those hands do you think I won? 58%, 57%? HELL NO! Try 42.3%! Over a sample size that big, I am losing 16.7% more hands than I should, which is remarkable.
So I begin to think that something is obviously wrong with the Pokerstars algorithm because clearly this is no true RNG, this is a forced "RNG" that is clearly trying to even money out as much as possible. Naturally, I stop playing on PokerStars and move to Ignition and ACR.
I play both sites fairly equally for about 1-2 months. From the start, I track my hands to see if it is Pokerstars that is the issue or what. After about 12,000 hands on Ignition, my all-in preflop % was 57%. I won 49% of those hands. On ACR, my all-in preflop average % was 60% across almost 14,000. I won 53% of those hands.
So, Pokerstars fell 16.7% of EV, Ignition was down 8% and ACR was down 7%. Now, either I am the unluckiest person alive, or something is clearly not right with these online poker sites. Now I'm not one to argue bots or superuser or anything like that. The point I am trying to make is that online poker is 100% clearly not the same as real life poker. You can argue "variance" all you want but when you play over 45,000 hands and lose nearly 17% more hands that what you realistically should in that span, that is not variance, there is something more sinister in the works.
I talked about my poker history to inform you that I am not some one month player who is upset because his aces got cracked twice. No. Quite the opposite. I have tracked the results myself and have spent weeks doing so, going through them and calculating the results. It is 100% that ALL online poker is rigged.
Sure, there are people who win more than others but the same could be said about the lottery. Eventually, someone gets lucky and hits the jackpot. A very select few actually have a profitable online poker career over the past five years or so. A lot lower percentage that the amount of profitable players in live poker.
The point of all of this is to inform people that online poker is not like live poker. The "variance" isn't realistic. It is clearly forced, and therefore rigged, to even out the playing field. Watch some YouTube videos of PokerStars/Party Poker/WSOP replays and notice the runs that players go on. For about a month, you'll notice a lot of the same players are making the final tables of events. Then, for a number of months after that, they never seen to make final tables again. Then, all of a sudden they start making a bunch of final tables all at one. Variance? No. That is the algorithms giving them money, and then distributing it for a while until they give a certain percentage back and then they start to receive it back from other players, all while eqaullt distributing the money while the poker sites profit. Youll notice players constantly getting bad beat and the players that are constantly giving out the bad beats. You can tell who is going to win by how they are running at the final table and how often they suck out.
Sam Grafton's WCOOP event win on Pokerstars is a perfect example. Watch the final table of that event from about a month ago and you will see exactly what I mean. If you have watched any of his commentary on the Pokerstars Twitch streams, you know he isn't that great of a player and is talking out of his azz 99% of the time. Even his co-hosts laugh at him. He is proof of a fair-play algorithm after losing so often and so much, he finally got his lucky payoff to keep him thinking he is a good player and therefore keep him playing.
So before you start, or decide to keep playing online poker, just know that you are not playing real poker, you are essentially playing a slot machine. Think of it as a 90% slot payout machine as opposed to 96-97% payout of an actual slot machine. Ask any slots player how much money you will lose after hours or playing on a 96-97% payout machine, its only worse for lower payout machines, which is essentially what online poker has become.
So in this COVID era where live poker is scarce, do your best to avoid online poker. Trust me. I and many other successful live players I know have lost their azzes online. You will two. Use online poker to practice and study. Play micro stakes and play money. Don't play trying to actually make money. Because unless you hit the jackpot, you wont. And nobody plays slots hoping just to hit the jackpot, if they do, they go broke fast. Don't let the results of online poker discourage you from playing the game live. Sure, bad beats happen and variance is a real thing, but when it comes to online poker, it is exasterbated and meant to take your money over time, just like a slot machine. Be smart, don't waste your money on something that is trying to scam you. Wait for casinos to open back up and go out and play live poker for real if you think you are good enough. At least there, if you lose, you will know it is because of lack of skill or actually variance, not a rigged algorithm.
In live poker, it is 80% skill and 20% luck. Online, those numbers are reversed. Don't rely on luck. Even if you are on a winning streak now, eventually, the algorithm will get you. Thanks for reading. Good Luck everyone.
Last edited by Mike Haven; 10-06-2020 at 07:45 AM.
Reason: Added link to Sam Grafton stats