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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
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Old 10-07-2009, 10:29 PM   #8976
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

This conversation is really bizarre, because I think either me or you guys are missing something fundamental.
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Originally Posted by DonkoTheClown View Post
I think what he might be saying here is that the RNG could be running during the times when an inspector is coming by and another program could be running other times to manipulate the outcome.
But one doesn't inspect or verify the RNG by physically standing there and looking at it. I don't understand why you would think that having physical access is even relevant here: it's not.

This is not a car factory where you can see the wheel getting attached to the axel, and the axel to the suspension. The RNG is taking place inside a computer.

Let's say that you ran a random number generator on your home PC. How would you verify it? Certainly not by just standing there and looking at the electrons move around the PC. You'd verify it by taking the results and doing some statistical analysis. Not only is that the only way to actually check the thing, it means having 24/7 physical access to the PC is irrelevant: you only need to look at the end logs and review that.

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He wants proof that this isnt happening.
Well, the idea that some guy looking at a screen 24/7 is relevant here is really weird in my mind. Not only would that probably be the world's most boring job, it'd also be pretty ineffective.

Quote:
I think that Pstars could take another strong step in gaining everyones confidence by putting a stronger effort into the independent supervision of their site and their games. This would be good for business in my opinion. I would suggest that they dont change what they have in place, they just fortify it using individuals, companies or agencies in other countries outside of the Isle of Man. Maybe Canada, USA, Russia? More oversite (hope I spelled that right), more un announced visits, more readily available data on these audits.
Sure - here are links to a couple such audits: http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/rng/

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If a site like Pstars is serious about it reputation, then something like this would be another star for them in their quest to provide customer service and game security that blows the entire industry completely out of the water. Your thoughts?
I think that PokerStars already does all this: it's regulated in a proper western liberal democracy, with independent regulators accountable to a democratically elected government.
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Old 10-07-2009, 10:29 PM   #8977
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Think of it this way (and yes this is an attempt at a serious response). What limits do you place on making everyone happy?

You have read this thread, seen all the creative theories. Now a guy is saying small stacks win too much in tourneys. Others say big stacks win too much. How exactly are you going to make both of them happy?

Eventually it comes down to providing reasonable security and also applying a reasonable amount of common sense. There is no way to make any extreme belief happy, because they will always find a new way to be unhappy.

Ok, the RnG is good, but what if it only runs some of the time? What if it only runs when inspectors are there? Now we have extra people who flip the on and off switch who also never reveal the secret (they must be very well paid button pushers). Where does this end?

The reality of the actual customer base is that the vast majority are either satisfied with the security or generally do not care because they are playing for fun. This thread brings out the extreme paranoid people so like selective memory at the tables it feels like more people have these beliefs.

Most do not. Most are quite happy or do not care. Most that are unhappy can never be made to be happy because they will always have another what if.

This thread alone is thousands of posts long of so many what ifs from the semi interesting to the outright insane, tell me Donko in all seriousness - how will you actually make them all happy?
You cant make them all happy, but you can make more feel better protected. More informed about the process. I find it so curious that most of my poker playing friends, college educated, and pretty good players with lots of final tables in their 5-10 years of playing experience, are somewhere between thinking online poker might be rigged, to being sure that it is. When I play in the brick and mortar, same discussion, same alarming rate of people who are just not sure, or think they are sure, and are staying away. These are potential customers who are not crazy. This tells me that there is just not enough out there to make people like these feel safe enough that they are not getting cheated. I am not talking about the people who have completely abandoned common sense, or who are completely mad. That should be a very small population people that the sites would probably be happy to steer very clear of.
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Old 10-07-2009, 10:32 PM   #8978
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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You'd verify it by taking the results and doing some statistical analysis. Not only is that the only way to actually check the thing, it means having 24/7 physical access to the PC is irrelevant: you only need to look at the end logs and review that.

QFT. The output is the only thing that matters (the dealt cards). The black box, wizard behind the curtain, pixie dust, or RNG mechanism, is totally irrelevant by itself. That's how all regulatory agencies measure it, including the ones in Las Vegas. Nobody ever examines the hardware or even cares. They examine the output statistically, just like players do.

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Old 10-07-2009, 10:36 PM   #8979
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by DonkoTheClown View Post
...This tells me that there is just not enough out there to make people like these feel safe enough that they are not getting cheated. I am not talking about the people who have completely abandoned common sense, or who are completely mad. That should be a very small population people that the sites would probably be happy to steer very clear of.
FWIW, I'm happy to listen to any ideas on this stuff and pass it along.

I've seen people in other threads say that "<insert poker site here> is not transparent enough." Well, what do you want?

A week or two, I offered my services and money out of my own pocket to employ someone to write a Hold'em Manager report to test whatever people wanted tested: That way, you could take the report details, and apply it to your own hand histories, and everyone could actually conduct their own reviews. Of course, no one actually provided any specifics of anything they actually wanted tested. The offer still stands, and I'm happy to contribute to this if anyone wants.
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Old 10-07-2009, 10:46 PM   #8980
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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You cant make them all happy, but you can make more feel better protected.
That is a never ending process, kind of like moving half way to a door over and over. Eventually the incremental gains are close to zero.

Part of the competitive nature of the industry is that the companies need to make their players feel secure, or else they can lose them to a different room. That is why as the market has matured many small rooms have vanished and the barriers to entry have become extremely difficult for a new entity to meet. Players in general feel more secure then ever at the major sites because those sites have earned trust.

If a particular player is still not satisfied they can contact the sites with their specific concerns. Josem keeps posting relevant links as well.

The reality is that those that want to not be secure will never be secure, and more effort to make them secure is kind of a waste of time. Concentrate on the players that matter.


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I find it so curious that most of my poker playing friends, college educated, and pretty good players with lots of final tables in their 5-10 years of playing experience, are somewhere between thinking online poker might be rigged, to being sure that it is.
A lot of relatively sane people believe the US government was behind 9/11. I won't even mention Lizard People. Your sampling of friends about an industry filled with superstitious characters is not as significant as you might believe.

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When I play in the brick and mortar, same discussion, same alarming rate of people who are just not sure, or think they are sure, and are staying away.
Many of those get creamed online, cannot figure out why and figure it must be because it is rigged.


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These are potential customers who are not crazy.
They are probably not superbot crazy, but they are rationalizing away what is likely their flaws. Everyone does that at times.

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This tells me that there is just not enough out there to make people like these feel safe enough that they are not getting cheated..
Here is where you are being a bit optimistic. They will never feel safe no matter how safe it is. Their beliefs are based upon their selected memories, fears and superstitions. A dude sitting watching a RnG to make sure it's random (which - kind of funny) will in no way bring those guys on board to play.

Online casinos had a ton of people who had similar beliefs. They were all rigged or fixed etc. The small casino bonus whoring crowd at the time loved these guys because the more they talked about how rigged it was, the fewer were actually doing the significantly profitable advantage play on them. I know people who grind Video Poker in real life that refused to do it online and all they did was miss the easiest money they could have made.

Some people will never be secure. For online casinos at the time that was ideal.


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Originally Posted by DonkoTheClown View Post
I am not talking about the people who have completely abandoned common sense, or who are completely mad. That should be a very small population people that the sites would probably be happy to steer very clear of.
Ask them specifically, and I mean SPECIFICALLY what it would take for them to play online. You will not get answers like xxxx agency auditing the yyyy. You will get answers like "I want to see it deal like live." "I want to see less bad beats."

That's how they think, that's how they roll. For most, that will never change until they change how they play.
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Old 10-07-2009, 10:48 PM   #8981
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This conversation is really bizarre, because I think either me or you guys are missing something fundamental.

But one doesn't inspect or verify the RNG by physically standing there and looking at it. I don't understand why you would think that having physical access is even relevant here: it's not.

This is not a car factory where you can see the wheel getting attached to the axel, and the axel to the suspension. The RNG is taking place inside a computer.

Let's say that you ran a random number generator on your home PC. How would you verify it? Certainly not by just standing there and looking at the electrons move around the PC. You'd verify it by taking the results and doing some statistical analysis. Not only is that the only way to actually check the thing, it means having 24/7 physical access to the PC is irrelevant: you only need to look at the end logs and review that.


Well, the idea that some guy looking at a screen 24/7 is relevant here is really weird in my mind. Not only would that probably be the world's most boring job, it'd also be pretty ineffective.


Sure - here are links to a couple such audits: http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/rng/


I think that PokerStars already does all this: it's regulated in a proper western liberal democracy, with independent regulators accountable to a democratically elected government.
You dont think that security around the server room is not important? I am not sure anyone was saying that someone would be physically watching electrons leap from one conductor to another 24/7, but I am sure an international team of independent and qualified people could find a way to handle a very thorough job of making sure that everything is on the up and up. I am sure that what Pstars (and just using them as an example because you work for them) has in place could very well be good. But how do you make this crystal clear for normal non mathematically inclined people who are just not quite willing to trust your site 100%. Do you just lose their business? Let them go back to the brick and mortar? That seems to be the approach and there may be a good reason for it. Maybe the extra effort and expense will not bring enough of a return? If that is the answer then I can accept it.
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Old 10-07-2009, 10:52 PM   #8982
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FWIW, I'm happy to listen to any ideas on this stuff and pass it along.

I've seen people in other threads say that "<insert poker site here> is not transparent enough." Well, what do you want?

A week or two, I offered my services and money out of my own pocket to employ someone to write a Hold'em Manager report to test whatever people wanted tested: That way, you could take the report details, and apply it to your own hand histories, and everyone could actually conduct their own reviews. Of course, no one actually provided any specifics of anything they actually wanted tested. The offer still stands, and I'm happy to contribute to this if anyone wants.
I would be happy to contribute to this also if other people were in on it. How much would something like this cost?
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Old 10-07-2009, 11:07 PM   #8983
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This conversation is really bizarre, because I think either me or you guys are missing something fundamental.

But one doesn't inspect or verify the RNG by physically standing there and looking at it. I don't understand why you would think that having physical access is even relevant here: it's not.

This is not a car factory where you can see the wheel getting attached to the axel, and the axel to the suspension. The RNG is taking place inside a computer.

Let's say that you ran a random number generator on your home PC. How would you verify it? Certainly not by just standing there and looking at the electrons move around the PC. You'd verify it by taking the results and doing some statistical analysis. Not only is that the only way to actually check the thing, it means having 24/7 physical access to the PC is irrelevant: you only need to look at the end logs and review that.


Well, the idea that some guy looking at a screen 24/7 is relevant here is really weird in my mind. Not only would that probably be the world's most boring job, it'd also be pretty ineffective.


Sure - here are links to a couple such audits: http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/rng/


I think that PokerStars already does all this: it's regulated in a proper western liberal democracy, with independent regulators accountable to a democratically elected government.
The information on BMM and Cigital does help make me feel a bit more comfortable, but again this just tells a customer that an audit was done, it doesnt prove that someone hasnt built a backdoor into the programming to manipulate the odds outside of those scheduled audit times. I think this is where we start getting into is it really worth it for the site to go this extra mile. The big sites dont have to because they have a huge draw. So Eddie Mush is out of luck I guess.
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Old 10-07-2009, 11:12 PM   #8984
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Ask them specifically, and I mean SPECIFICALLY what it would take for them to play online. You will not get answers like xxxx agency auditing the yyyy. You will get answers like "I want to see it deal like live." "I want to see less bad beats."

That's how they think, that's how they roll. For most, that will never change until they change how they play.
I dont think they necessarily need to see the deal, but I do think that they need something a step further along than what these sites offer to make them feel closer to 100% sure they are safe. I will never reach that 100% mark, but I am closer to that point now than I was when I first started posting here. Although, that fluctuates a bit depending upon my mood. LOL!
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Old 10-07-2009, 11:14 PM   #8985
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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You dont think that security around the server room is not important? I am not sure anyone was saying that someone would be physically watching electrons leap from one conductor to another 24/7, but I am sure an international team of independent and qualified people could find a way to handle a very thorough job of making sure that everything is on the up and up. I am sure that what Pstars (and just using them as an example because you work for them) has in place could very well be good. But how do you make this crystal clear for normal non mathematically inclined people who are just not quite willing to trust your site 100%. Do you just lose their business? Let them go back to the brick and mortar? That seems to be the approach and there may be a good reason for it. Maybe the extra effort and expense will not bring enough of a return? If that is the answer then I can accept it.
Yes.
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Old 10-07-2009, 11:56 PM   #8986
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I dont think they necessarily need to see the deal, but I do think that they need something a step further along than what these sites offer to make them feel closer to 100% sure they are safe. I will never reach that 100% mark, but I am closer to that point now than I was when I first started posting here. Although, that fluctuates a bit depending upon my mood. LOL!
Yeah, but their steps will not be the severity of the RnG auditing process. Their steps will be "get bad beat less" and "less action hands."

Basically, steps that can never happen as long as they want to believe in them.

Well run sites make a ton. These "extra steps" you keep talking about will not mean anything to pretty much anyone, even you to be honest (note how no matter how much is said you are never quite convinced...) If these were that important to the marketplace then the sites would be doing it and advertising it.
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Old 10-08-2009, 12:29 AM   #8987
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Yeah, but their steps will not be the severity of the RnG auditing process. Their steps will be "get bad beat less" and "less action hands."

Basically, steps that can never happen as long as they want to believe in them.

Well run sites make a ton. These "extra steps" you keep talking about will not mean anything to pretty much anyone, even you to be honest (note how no matter how much is said you are never quite convinced...) If these were that important to the marketplace then the sites would be doing it and advertising it.
Well, it seems that at least Pstars is making an attempt to address this because there seems to be more on this now then there was 5 years ago when I first started playing on their site. (meaning more info on audits). I will bet that this will continue to improve over the course of the next 5 years. So there seems to be some sort of need to put that info out there.
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Old 10-08-2009, 02:09 AM   #8988
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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I hear realdealpoker is getting close now. Their stated target market is the rigtards of the world. They deal real cards on webcam. Enjoy the movie.
Wow, they can't be serious about that "single deck" stuff, can they? Their rake is going to be ridiculous if they are.
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it doesnt prove that someone hasnt built a backdoor into the programming to manipulate the odds outside of those scheduled audit times.
The argument from ignorance, also known as argumentum ad ignorantiam ("appeal to ignorance"), argument by lack of imagination, or negative evidence, is a logical fallacy in which it is claimed that a premise is true only because it has not been proven false, or is false only because it has not been proven true.
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I think this is where we start getting into is it really worth it for the site to go this extra mile.
No site can prove a negative.
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Old 10-08-2009, 02:26 AM   #8989
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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You dont think that security around the server room is not important? I am not sure anyone was saying that someone would be physically watching electrons leap from one conductor to another 24/7, but I am sure an international team of independent and qualified people could find a way to handle a very thorough job of making sure that everything is on the up and up. I am sure that what Pstars (and just using them as an example because you work for them) has in place could very well be good. But how do you make this crystal clear for normal non mathematically inclined people who are just not quite willing to trust your site 100%. Do you just lose their business? Let them go back to the brick and mortar? That seems to be the approach and there may be a good reason for it. Maybe the extra effort and expense will not bring enough of a return? If that is the answer then I can accept it.
Re-read what Josem wrote. The RNG isn't a physical thing that needs a "security guard".

The problem is, non-mathematically inclined people who want to believe they aren't just plain bad at poker are always going to believe it is rigged. If you have a million audits etc, they will question them because they weren't actually there for them.

Anyone who has ever done extensive research on RNG's of the major sites has never found anything amiss. This should be good enough for any rationally thinking human to think it is probably on the up and up. More research is awesome though and any major site most likely welcomes it.
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Old 10-08-2009, 03:13 AM   #8990
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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I would be happy to contribute to this also if other people were in on it. How much would something like this cost?
There'd probably be people who would do it for free, imo.
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Old 10-08-2009, 03:14 AM   #8991
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I dont think they necessarily need to see the deal, but I do think that they need something a step further along than what these sites offer to make them feel closer to 100% sure they are safe. I will never reach that 100% mark, but I am closer to that point now than I was when I first started posting here. Although, that fluctuates a bit depending upon my mood. LOL!
Sure, tell us what you want. Everyone likes transparency, and fwiw, I think that as far as businesses go, my employer is pretty decent. I can tell you that my electricity retailer doesn't employ staff to talk about the fairness or accuracy of the electricity meter. I can tell you that when I buy fish at the supermarket, they don't appear to compensate their scales for the weight of the plastic bags.
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Old 10-08-2009, 04:40 AM   #8992
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Like I said I appreciate Josems views and posts here, but I don't appreciate you referring to his question about online poker sites being prosecuted and legalities of poker as "animal stupid." Is he "animal stupid" for bringing that up? And that's exactly what your implying. I feel it's completely relevent and I'm pretty sure his point was based on if online poker sites were that crooked, then surely one of them would have faced some sort of legal action.
tk1133, of all the people on who read this thread, only you could be so animal stupid as to not realise that only you were being alluded to in my comment on animal stupidity.

I'm sure the reasoning will go straight over your head but never mind.
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Old 10-08-2009, 05:00 AM   #8993
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600 pages of useless discussion
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Old 10-08-2009, 05:11 AM   #8994
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600 pages of useless discussion
You're doing it wrong. 180 pages for me.
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Old 10-08-2009, 05:22 AM   #8995
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You're doing it wrong. 180 pages for me.
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Old 10-08-2009, 06:07 AM   #8996
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600 pages of useless discussion
And a big thank you for your own useful^h^h^hless contributions.
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Old 10-08-2009, 08:06 AM   #8997
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And a big thank you for your own useful^h^h^hless contributions.
Your welcome always nice to help
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Old 10-08-2009, 09:23 AM   #8998
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600 pages of useless discussion
I only count 91 pages (with @80 pages being useless). All my posts are useless though, too I just like to jump in occasionally and say something irrelevant with a hint of common sense and truth I'm not a rigtard, conspiracy theorist, shill, online pro, lizard person, poker site employee/rep, superbot controller, RNG specialist, or a statistician, so what can I do?? I can't measure, interpret, or describe how an RNG system really works or provide proof they're being used 100% of the time, so instead I just bs.. and sometimes I'll quote other useless posts such as yours.

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Old 10-08-2009, 09:51 AM   #8999
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Well, it seems that at least Pstars is making an attempt to address this because there seems to be more on this now then there was 5 years ago when I first started playing on their site. (meaning more info on audits). I will bet that this will continue to improve over the course of the next 5 years. So there seems to be some sort of need to put that info out there.
Probably, but not because there is a huge uproar among people who think their aces get cracked too much. Improved technology and increased competition and a strategy to be the best will help push these companies to make all sorts of improvements, including this (although this one is relatively minor in terms of customer demands).

A much more substantial example of improved security is the RSA Token that Stars has available. This is an invaluable security item that the other larger sites/networks should be ashamed not having available at this time. When was the last time you saw a post of anyone who's account got hacked at Stars with a RSA Token?


The audit information is out there for people who really want to know it. Josem keeps linking it, so read it and send detailed questions if concerned, but realize that a tiny portion of the players care about that level of detail on that area, and certainly your poker buddies will never change their feelings about online poker based on the auditing procedures.

In time, more people may feel comfortable playing online (bit different in US with the various legistlations that exist). Some will never be comfortable just like some still refuse to use online banking or even a banking machine.

You will never make everyone feel totally secure.

Donko, you situation though is much simpler.

- You play a good deal of online poker.

- You ran really bad.

- You are trying to come to terms with how running that bad was possible.

- You are exploring all of the rigged paranoid options, trying to feel secure, but you cannot ever quite get there.

- You still have not joined a coaching site or hired a coach or really looked at and analyzed your game to see how it could have been you all along.

Eventually if and when you do something to change the final item, you will sit back and laugh at yourself for all the time you have spent on the rigged or not path. And then when you see someone ask "well, what if they have two different RnGs - one they show the inspectors and one they turn on and off against certain players to alter the deal?" you can be relieved that it is no longer you asking such questions.


Quote:
Originally Posted by LVGambler View Post
I only count 91 pages (with @80 pages being useless). All my posts are useless though, too I just like to jump in occasionally and say something irrelevant with a hint of common sense and truth I'm not a rigtard, conspiracy theorist, shill, online pro, lizard person, poker site employee/rep, superbot controller, RNG specialist, or a statistician, so what can I do?? I can't measure, interpret, or describe how an RNG system really works or provide proof they're being used 100% of the time, so instead I just bs.. and sometimes I'll quote other useless posts such as yours.

Yeah, but your posts are actually funny.
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Old 10-08-2009, 10:38 AM   #9000
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by LVGambler View Post
I only count 91 pages (with @80 pages being useless). All my posts are useless though, too I just like to jump in occasionally and say something irrelevant with a hint of common sense and truth I'm not a rigtard, conspiracy theorist, shill, online pro, lizard person, poker site employee/rep, superbot controller, RNG specialist, or a statistician, so what can I do?? I can't measure, interpret, or describe how an RNG system really works or provide proof they're being used 100% of the time, so instead I just bs.. and sometimes I'll quote other useless posts such as yours.

Page 601 of 601. My opinion is - IF YOU DONT ****** LIKE IT DONT PLAY
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