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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,445 34.94%
No 5,522 56.00%
Undecided 893 9.06%
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Old 10-07-2009, 02:34 PM   #8951
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Re: Am I Just Bound to Lose? Along with everyone else who does this....?

This thread is up there with the guy who wants his 20k back from absolute after blowing it all like a moron on blackjack.
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Old 10-07-2009, 02:37 PM   #8952
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Re: Am I Just Bound to Lose? Along with everyone else who does this....?

Yes you are bound to lose.

Just like this thread is bound to be merged in just a few seconds, once I find the great rigging thread for you.
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Old 10-07-2009, 02:38 PM   #8953
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

In after merge.
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Old 10-07-2009, 02:51 PM   #8954
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by tk1133 View Post
So the "reptoid"(I'll be P.C. since perhaps reptillian humonoids might troll this thread) killed your cat so the evidence of the reptoids can't be proven if your cat is no longer alive to prove it. Lizard people are telepathic so if your cat would catch lizards and let them go and not kill them I'm sure the reptoid showed mercy on your cat. Personally I think your an awful cat handler and maybe if you showed more responsibility your cat never would of been in a position to be taken by lizard people. BTW do you live in LA? Perhaps you could search the tunnels for your kitty. I hope you find it, b/c lots of us are waiting for a witness to come forward...
Actually, we still have a telepathic link, so he can communicate what happened. The next door neighbors dog bit him and as he was leaving his furry body he could see that this wasnt a dog after all, it was a lizardman disguised as a dog. We now have proof of lizardmen so that means that we now have proof that online poker is rigged.

On a more serious note, our little Nico was found dead of a dog bite in the back alley, I told the neighbor that I better not see her dog out running around loose in the neighborhood again or I am going to have animal control out to pick it up. This dog hurt another cat a few months ago, but the cats owner stopped it from killing her cat. I like to include our cat in on some jokes because it keeps things light. He was supercool, I will add his pic on my profile here when I get a chance. sigh...
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Old 10-07-2009, 02:51 PM   #8955
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Re: Probabilites and such like.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eddie Mush View Post
All the other sites did not need any court ruling they just stopped even though it cost them milions everyday. I repeat: They are betting millions everyday that Stars and FT are wrong.
Repeating it doesn't make it true.

It's this simple: The companies that pulled out are publicly traded. Those that stayed are privately owned.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend View Post
The website I play on appears to deal a ridiculous number of pocket pairs. I would say especially big pocket pairs, but obviously these hands will end up being played and being shown more often than the smaller pocket pairs, so for now I'm going to assume all pocket pairs.

I realise the odds of getting any particular pocket pair are 220/1. So, you'd expect to receive each particular pocket pair once every 221 hands. If I play 6-man tables, does this mean that each pocket pair should appear at the table every 36/37 hands or so, or is it not as simple as that ?
Sounds about right. Which would mean that someone at your table should receive some kind of pocket pair about once every 2.7 hands or so. Don't trust your own eyes and brain to determine whether this is happening - trust your hand histories. And keep in mind you don't know what your opponents' hole cards are every time, and this will skew the types of hands you see from them. Check the data for your own hands; that would be reliable.

Last edited by Bobo Fett; 10-07-2009 at 03:03 PM. Reason: Typo.
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Old 10-07-2009, 02:56 PM   #8956
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Re: Probabilites and such like.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend View Post
The website I play on appears to deal a ridiculous number of pocket pairs. I would say especially big pocket pairs, but obviously these hands will end up being played and being shown more often than the smaller pocket pairs, so for now I'm going to assume all pocket pairs.

I realise the odds of getting any particular pocket pair are 220/1. So, you'd expect to receive each particular pocket pair once every 221 hands. If I play 6-man tables, does this mean that each pocket pair should appear at the table every 36/37 hands or so, or is it not as simple as that ?

I reckon hands are appearing far more frequently than they should be and wondered if anyone has any ideas about how I could investigate this.

I'm not suggesting online poker is rigged or any of that, but at the same time I don't believe we should take everything we're told as gospel.
also, keep in mind that people are more apt to play and show down pocket pairs as opposed to random hands like 2-7 offsuit, so you may have a skewed view of how many times people really are dealt pocket pairs and the fact that it may be too often.
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Old 10-07-2009, 04:28 PM   #8957
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
Not really. The failure of the third-party processors to use the correct charge code is not what the Party settlement was about, even though it was one of the facts. Party agreed with the U.S. Attorney that they had violated the Wire Act. Their sportsbook operation did in fact violate the wire act, that was not disputed. They chose not to litigate whether that law also applied to poker, and pulled out to protect their stockholders, as they were the only publicly traded company to ever offer poker to U.S. players. They also voluntarily pulled out as soon as UIGEA passed, before the Wire Act charges were even settled. Most legal opinions still say that poker doesn't violate the Wire Act, but that has never yet been tested in court.

Bottom line, Party was not prosecuted for operating a poker site. They were threatened with prosecution over violations of the Wire Act, which may or may not apply to poker. That point was never decided, and still isn't. The DOJ stated opinion that they will apply the Wire Act to poker sites, keeps sites from taking stupid risks and operating from within the U.S. and no one has challenged this in court yet afaik. But there isn't much dispute that no law makes it illegal for individuals to play on foreign sites over the Internet, except in the few states that have such laws.
There was obviously a merge while I was away, but, Party Poker paid the DOJ in fines so they could avoid "Prosecution" I was reading on this before b/c I thought Party was basicly bending over and taking it b/c they wanted the USA to favor them when they reopen the Online Poker Market to US players. They claimed they did not knowingly break the law and when the DOJ told them it was against the law, they stopped accepting US wagers. From what I understood we were pissed off on the way they stated their charges on banking and credit card statements. Not sure but I guess I'll look it up again.
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Old 10-07-2009, 04:36 PM   #8958
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by tk1133 View Post
There was obviously a merge while I was away, but, Party Poker paid the DOJ in fines so they could avoid "Prosecution" I was reading on this before b/c I thought Party was basicly bending over and taking it b/c they wanted the USA to favor them when they reopen the Online Poker Market to US players. They claimed they did not knowingly break the law and when the DOJ told them it was against the law, they stopped accepting US wagers. From what I understood we were pissed off on the way they stated their charges on banking and credit card statements. Not sure but I guess I'll look it up again.
If you do perhaps you could find the proper place to post any information you find.

We get a lot of people posting rigged stuff in other threads but so far no one has been so animal stupid as to post legal stuff in the rigged thread.

Oh, wait ...
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Old 10-07-2009, 04:56 PM   #8959
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by qpw View Post
If you do perhaps you could find the proper place to post any information you find.

We get a lot of people posting rigged stuff in other threads but so far no one has been so animal stupid as to post legal stuff in the rigged thread.

Oh, wait ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josem

...............The way that courts work in the Western world is that they do not give rulings before events. They rule on the facts, after an event. It is not possible to obtain a court ruling before the fact.

This is another pretty fundamental issue in discussing this issue. Your repeated failure to create fictitious explanations for relatively simple issues - when you are quite self-evidently and undeniably wrong - is really quite puzzling.

What law do they break?

Who has been prosecuted for offering online poker services?
Like I said I appreciate Josems views and posts here, but I don't appreciate you referring to his question about online poker sites being prosecuted and legalities of poker as "animal stupid." Is he "animal stupid" for bringing that up? And that's exactly what your implying. I feel it's completely relevent and I'm pretty sure his point was based on if online poker sites were that crooked, then surely one of them would have faced some sort of legal action.

Last edited by tk1133; 10-07-2009 at 04:59 PM. Reason: Perhaps you could edit and retract your statement
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Old 10-07-2009, 05:04 PM   #8960
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Well, it is not the same, but who here has ever said that online poker is 100% clean? Far from it, with all areas that involve money there will be all sorts of crime.

Collusion, fraud, bots (real not super), and rogue sites (that shut down and take player money) are genuine threats in this industry, ones that need a lot of attention.

This is why you will see many of the so called "shills" here asking why a player chooses to play on ponzischeme.com when someone posts how they lost their 50k roll there. Quite a few threads about collusion and forms of fraud as well.

Sure we may not take the threat of mystery superbots or the random paranoid theory of the day seriously, because those are generally just people with their own weird agendas with no evidence whatsoever. Yours is no different - your weird issue is "let me see the RnG running 24 hours a day. Here look at this website I blindly follow" Others were timing issues or entropy effects or mafia issues or superbots etc etc.

If we consolidated all the soapbox people's theories it would be a list several hundred long, many of which directly contradict each other.

Know what? I am happier they are more serious about real crimes like collusion and fraud then the stuff you and your fellow riggedologists create.




Millions of players with databases is a powerful pool of information. While not all use it, some are quite freakish in analyzing the data, which is how a lot of the crimes we have seen have been caught, both big and small. For every superuser scandal there are tons of collusion rings that were caught by players looking at their databases.

A site would have to go through this minefield as well if they chose to somehow alter how the deal was done in an intentional way, while of course needing to kill off all the people who knew about it as well.




We should also ensure that they are not using a ADD mouse click scheme to screw people.

We should also check to make sure that people who play on laptops are not being screwed.

We should also check that people who just completed bonuses are not being screwed.

We should also check that people who play badly are not being helped.

We should also check that big stacks do not win too much.

We should also check that small stacks do not win so much.

We should also check for undetectable super bots

Part of the charm of this thread is there will always be new and fun things that we should check.
Spoken like a true champ Monteroy. You do a good job here. Effective and without being sensitive (or being a dick).
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Old 10-07-2009, 06:06 PM   #8961
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eddie Mush View Post
Keep babling about standard deviation and question my knowledge of statistics if it makes you feel better (by the way advanced statistics is part of my MBA).
Look, compile your own simulation of something random, and graph it. Do this yourself so you can't accuse me or anyone else of running some conspiracy here. Do it using something from outside poker to prove this is a universal concept.

You will see that over time, your graph will look further away from the mean, just as the graph talked about at that other website.
Quote:
I do not disagree that a lot of people without EV graphs, lots of hands and knowledge of variance claims they just know onlinepoker is rigged. This is bad, almost as bad as someone insisting onlinepoker is 100% clean without anything but AP and UB to back this claim up (ironi).
No one is claiming online poker is 100% clean.

My view is that the random shuffle process at PokerStars is fair, random and unbiased. I have that view 'cause that's what I know best. I also happen to think that it's unlikely that any other major site has any problems with their shuffle.
Quote:
You want evidence online poker is rigged. Players only have their graphs and handhistories to back their need for security up.
Yes, exactly. So show some graph or hand history that shows something wrong.

If the shuffle of a site is rigged, it will change the outcome of hands. This will be reflected in hand histories.
Quote:
They have no rights, there is no control, if it turns out to be rigged no one goes to jail and so on.
This is just not true.

I work for an online poker site. If I was involved in rigging a deck or stealing equity from a player in some way, I would expect to go to jail for it.

The USA is not the only place in the world with courts and jails and a legal system. You folks didn't invent these things, and the rest of us largely obey our laws too.

Quote:
Really you should start demanding Stars provide evidence they are using a RNG 24/7 instead of blindly defending them because you do not know for sure if they use a RNG 24/7 you just think they do.
I don't understand how they could not be using a RNG 24/7.

Do you mean that to allege, for example, the deck is rigged only between 1pm and 3pm? Or do you mean something else?

Like, the fact that decks are shuffled and dealt 24/7 is pretty strong evidence that the PokerStars server is shuffling and dealing 24/7. Given that their RNG is self-evidently a fundamental part of their shuffling and dealing process, I don't understand how you could imagine their RNG is only operating part-time.
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Old 10-07-2009, 06:08 PM   #8962
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Re: Probabilites and such like.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by FatedToPretend View Post
The website I play on appears to deal a ridiculous number of pocket pairs. I would say especially big pocket pairs, but obviously these hands will end up being played and being shown more often than the smaller pocket pairs, so for now I'm going to assume all pocket pairs.

...

I reckon hands are appearing far more frequently than they should be and wondered if anyone has any ideas about how I could investigate this.
You can use a piece of software like Hold'em Manager or Poker Tracker.

If you do not have access to either piece of software, you have two options

1) You can buy it

or

2) You can ask someone in this thread to review your hand histories and share the results.

If you want, I would be happy for you to send me your hand histories, and I will do this simple analysis for you. If you would prefer to have someone else do it, then I would not be offended

Quote:
I'm not suggesting online poker is rigged or any of that, but at the same time I don't believe we should take everything we're told as gospel.
Spot on, I agree. Fortunately, this stuff can be easily verified yourself, and you've got a huge network of people here who can help you.
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Old 10-07-2009, 06:15 PM   #8963
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Pyromantha View Post
Assuming you are talking about the sum of independent random variables, which makes sense given the context, standard deviation is not proportional to sample size, it is proportional to the square root of sample size.

Incidentally, Eddie Mush is probably being deliberately vague and talking about the standard error of the mean, not the standard deviation.

To take a coinflipping example, you are saying that the s.d. of the number of heads in 100 flips is higher than the s.d. of one flip. He is saying that the s.d. of the proportion of flips that came up heads is lower after 100 flips than after one flip. You are both correct.

If this was related to EV graphs then Josem's interpretation is better. The lines represent the absolute difference between observed and expected, and 'on average', diverge as sqrt(n). They do not converge as they are not proportions of anything.
But the 'error' between the two lines, expressed as a percentage, should converge to zero. The distinction between absolute error and percentage error is what confuses so many poker players and leads to the gambler's fallacy that things will "even out" eventually.

I was confused by it as well. I kept seeing players talk about how variance would even out for you in the long run, and I kept thinking, "How does variance know what to do? How do the cards know that I'm supposed to get some extra aces to make up for the small amount I've gotten up to now?" On the one hand, it made sense to me that in the very, very long run there would be relatively little difference between my expected results and my actual results. On the other hand, it didn't make sense that the universe would somehow remember and let me hit a few extra straight draws somewhere down the road. I was sure something was decreasing (other than my bankroll), but I couldn't figure out what.

Basically, I couldn't sort it out by myself. But finally, some kind soul in the probability forum explained it for me. It might have been you, in fact. Whoever it was, mucho thanks. It cleared up a lot.
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Old 10-07-2009, 06:18 PM   #8964
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Josem View Post


I don't understand how they could not be using a RNG 24/7.

Do you mean that to allege, for example, the deck is rigged only between 1pm and 3pm? Or do you mean something else?

Like, the fact that decks are shuffled and dealt 24/7 is pretty strong evidence that the PokerStars server is shuffling and dealing 24/7. Given that their RNG is self-evidently a fundamental part of their shuffling and dealing process, I don't understand how you could imagine their RNG is only operating part-time.
I think what he might be saying here is that the RNG could be running during the times when an inspector is coming by and another program could be running other times to manipulate the outcome. He wants proof that this isnt happening. I think that Pstars could take another strong step in gaining everyones confidence by putting a stronger effort into the independent supervision of their site and their games. This would be good for business in my opinion. I would suggest that they dont change what they have in place, they just fortify it using individuals, companies or agencies in other countries outside of the Isle of Man. Maybe Canada, USA, Russia? More oversite (hope I spelled that right), more un announced visits, more readily available data on these audits. If a site like Pstars is serious about it reputation, then something like this would be another star for them in their quest to provide customer service and game security that blows the entire industry completely out of the water. Your thoughts?
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Old 10-07-2009, 06:22 PM   #8965
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt View Post
This is either a lie or you haven't even started it yet. Otherwise I can't possibly understand the amount of fail you are providing in this thread.



Apparently English is not part of your MBA...or maybe it is considering how little you seem to know of statistics.
This last statement in my opinion is a cheap shot. English may not be this posters first language. I wish I could speak and write in a second language as good as he can. Unfortunalely, the Spanish side of my Spanish/Irish ancestory must be too lazy to do so...or is it the Irish side...hmmm...lol
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Old 10-07-2009, 07:53 PM   #8966
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by DonkoTheClown View Post
This last statement in my opinion is a cheap shot. English may not be this posters first language. I wish I could speak and write in a second language as good as he can. Unfortunalely, the Spanish side of my Spanish/Irish ancestory must be too lazy to do so...or is it the Irish side...hmmm...lol
His name is Eddie Mush. You obviously haven't see A Bronx Tale. If I had to guess I would say English is his first language.

Even if it is his second language, I was just taking a shot at his obvious lie that he is in an advanced statistics course and I don't mind if it was cheap because in my opinion you get what you pay for.
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Old 10-07-2009, 08:13 PM   #8967
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Eddie Mush View Post

(by the way advanced statistics is part of my MBA).
Then you should retract your rude and impetuous disagreement with Josem's statement of fact when he said, "Over time, there should be an increase in difference between expected and actual performance."

There is no "context" as you keep alluding to, that will ever make this a false statement. Don't even continue trying to argue this point, he used straightforward words that don't allow misunderstanding here. Either you made a mistake and then tried to dance around it, or you truly don't understand it. He was not referring to a ratio or proportion, he said "difference".

Last edited by spadebidder; 10-07-2009 at 08:21 PM. Reason: I'd guess you also don't know who he is.
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Old 10-07-2009, 09:13 PM   #8968
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Want to see rigged? Just go watch ftp mtts deep. After doubling someone, that new shortstack will just get a big hand right after to double with...they will just keep doubling people in this way repeatedly, making effective stacks a ******edly small amt. Also, they will let a shorty suckout and double from an absurdly low amt, then get a big hand and get sucked out on. Works both ways repeatedly deep.
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Old 10-07-2009, 09:17 PM   #8969
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by bef99hwk View Post
Want to see rigged? Just go watch ftp mtts deep. After doubling someone, that new shortstack will just get a big hand right after to double with...they will just keep doubling people in this way repeatedly, making effective stacks a ******edly small amt. Also, they will let a shorty suckout and double from an absurdly low amt, then get a big hand and get sucked out on. Works both ways repeatedly deep.
I love it! So your theory is FTP wants to keep players in tournaments longer? I'm not sure I've heard this angle before. Bef--could you please explain how this would help the site and why they would do it? Also, your evidence is the fact that your mind sees the patterns right?
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Old 10-07-2009, 09:20 PM   #8970
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by bef99hwk View Post
Want to see rigged? Just go watch ftp mtts deep. After doubling someone, that new shortstack will just get a big hand right after to double with...they will just keep doubling people in this way repeatedly, making effective stacks a ******edly small amt. Also, they will let a shorty suckout and double from an absurdly low amt, then get a big hand and get sucked out on. Works both ways repeatedly deep.
Beautiful. Rigging that costs the site money. Excellent post. Well played sir.

Last edited by spadebidder; 10-07-2009 at 09:30 PM.
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Old 10-07-2009, 09:36 PM   #8971
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt View Post
His name is Eddie Mush. You obviously haven't see A Bronx Tale. If I had to guess I would say English is his first language.

Even if it is his second language, I was just taking a shot at his obvious lie that he is in an advanced statistics course and I don't mind if it was cheap because in my opinion you get what you pay for.
LOL! You do have a good point. Some of you guys must be so sick of seeing the same stuff over and over again. I guess I cant blame you for lashing out...
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Old 10-07-2009, 09:37 PM   #8972
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Beautiful. Rigging that costs the site money. Excellent post. Well played sir.
Doesnt sound like a rig, it sounds like a malfunction...lol
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Old 10-07-2009, 09:41 PM   #8973
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by DonkoTheClown View Post
Doesnt sound like a rig, it sounds like a malfunction...lol
brain malfunction imo
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Old 10-07-2009, 10:10 PM   #8974
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by DonkoTheClown View Post
I think what he might be saying here is that the RNG could be running during the times when an inspector is coming by and another program could be running other times to manipulate the outcome. He wants proof that this isnt happening. I think that Pstars could take another strong step in gaining everyones confidence by putting a stronger effort into the independent supervision of their site and their games.
Think of it this way (and yes this is an attempt at a serious response). What limits do you place on making everyone happy?

You have read this thread, seen all the creative theories. Now a guy is saying small stacks win too much in tourneys. Others say big stacks win too much. How exactly are you going to make both of them happy?

Eventually it comes down to providing reasonable security and also applying a reasonable amount of common sense. There is no way to make any extreme belief happy, because they will always find a new way to be unhappy.

Ok, the RnG is good, but what if it only runs some of the time? What if it only runs when inspectors are there? Now we have extra people who flip the on and off switch who also never reveal the secret (they must be very well paid button pushers). Where does this end?

The reality of the actual customer base is that the vast majority are either satisfied with the security or generally do not care because they are playing for fun. This thread brings out the extreme paranoid people so like selective memory at the tables it feels like more people have these beliefs.

Most do not. Most are quite happy or do not care. Most that are unhappy can never be made to be happy because they will always have another what if.

This thread alone is thousands of posts long of so many what ifs from the semi interesting to the outright insane, tell me Donko in all seriousness - how will you actually make them all happy?
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Old 10-07-2009, 10:15 PM   #8975
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

I hear realdealpoker is getting close now. Their stated target market is the rigtards of the world. They deal real cards on webcam. Enjoy the movie.
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