?

I'll indulge your bait just once. I wouldn't expect someone who is living in denial to let a negative truth about themself they hear affect their level of cognitive dissonance they have for their delusion of superiority and grandeur to begin with. I don't want to clog the forum anymore with chat non related to the debate. Good Day.

The frequency of pocket pairs being dealt would be a straightforward phenomenon to analyze statistically. There is a stickied thread in the Probability Forum which lists the expected pair frequencies from 2 to 10 players at the table.

High school math is sufficient to derive standard statistical tests (e.g. confidence intervals) by using the frequencies of pocket pairs to test if the deal is "random". People can help out in this thread or over in the Probability Forum if you need any help on this front. For example, you may want to test if the frequency of more than one pocket pair is "random".

I believe sites include hole cards of all players in their Hand Histories, so it would not be very difficult to tally the observed frequencies in a specific Hand History sample. Say 1000 hands or whatever. Then compare the statistical test's confidence interval(s) to the observed frequency.

Let us know if you have any questions or need any assistance.

Hey Fett
I responded to this already earlier. They did.

Ignition is the first place I've seen who has changed the structure for them to end faster as they offer hyper turbo tournaments with freakishly short blind levels and starting stacks of 300. I'm not sure if you're just giving me crap for it or really didn't see the response.

I bet stars probably has them too now, but I have only played on US sites since net teller, so this is the only US site i've seen with hyper turbos, so they did in fact do exactly what you asked already.

Oh my. I hadn't read this before my response above. I change my "very close to 100%" response to "100%"

"(rounded to 30 as you cant have .4 of a pocket pair but .4 is more than 0 so it must be treated as a full unit)"

lol

"I think there is much more validity to a 59 pocket pair per 500 rate over 500,000 hands, then over 500 hands, even though its the same ratio."

Hmmm. You might be onto something here though. So you're saying that getting Heads a million times in a row on a coin toss is more meaningful than getting Heads on two consecutive attempts?

"I wish someone played enough volume and had enough interest to test this out."
No way that a database with a significant number of hands has ever existed though. Rather annoying as then someone would be able to prove one of these rigs. Darn it.

Yeah, my bad, I usually am a little more careful than that, sorry. I guess it was so short I breezed right on by.

So my follow-up question would be, if they can so easily do this with rule/format changes, why would they need to come up with some sophisticated algorithm to fraudulently do what they can already do perfectly legitimately?

Hey man! thank you so much for your response. However, without database software, this is by no means easy as the hands would need to be recorded manually. Even with database software, I wouldn't be confident with 1000 hands about any deviation above the normal unless it was insanely out of wack like 4X what the expected deviation is as he mentioned.

I wouldn't feel confident with less than 500,000 hands dealt and comparing the pocket pair numbers then. If I was doing this officially for someone, like writing a statistic in a book, I wouldn't be happy with a sample size less than 5,000,000. What we need here is someone who has a database of about 500,000 hands or more (more preferably obviously) of 9 handed holdem. Then we need to compare that person's stats against the proper mathematical process. Anyone volunteer?

No need for an apology, honest mistake.

Your question can be answered by Frank from Scarface

at 0:54

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmgaJycXmVU

or more simply put

because it makes them more money and its very hard for them to get caught, and not everyone wants to play a hyper turbo tournament, because theres more edge and less gamble in slower blind tournaments

Because a small tweak undetected at 500 hands is glaring at 5 million. There have been studies with many many millions of hands. Half a millions hands is considered the minimum for many studies.

Wait, what?

Any HUD will do this and you can download your hands, use a free trial, and see it for yourself. Regs have many millions of hands and they analyze their play often. They would pick these things up.

first of all your joyful glory at lording over someone because you think you're right, is ugly. Lose that as it makes people care less about your argument, whether you're right or not.

Comparing the variance of poker something based on skill and luck and the things that can cause variance in poker to the variance of flipping a coin, something based entirely on luck, and saying they're identical is just ignorant. I refuse to respond further to someone who won't argue with logical arguments like a mature adult.

Yes this is my point, at 5 million it would be glaring. However. What if the normal amount of pocket pairs given out over 5 million is (and this is not an accurate number) lets just say purely theoretically in the sake of not actually doing the math the normal amount of pocket pairs given out in 5 million hands is 800,000. What if, instead, they gave out consistently, one of the further deviation points on the standard deviation graph, in the anomaly territory, but it was such a small increase, it was tough to catch even with 5,000,000 hands.

Like lets say, the increase was small enough that instead of the 800,000 number we are supposed to get, we find out that the amount being dealt are in the +3.1 standard deviation from norm. or 3.2. JUUUUUST outside the curve and into anomaly territory. Just enough to not rouse serious suspicion, maybe bringing the number closer to 1,000,000, say around 950,000, instead of what it should be around which is 800,000.

What if its even more subtle, and the rig is so slight, it ends up around 910,000?

These numbers are purely theorhetical and not factual, but they demonstrate the concept i'm trying to say. My point is, even if they add a tiny bit more pocket pairs, JUST A TINY BIT more than usual, it still equates to millions in profits over years, even if its just a tiny tiny amount more than what is supposed to be happening.

The kind of variance that is increased is major by this action, as it causes more raises preflop, and more calls, due to people trying to set on higher pps, people with higher pps raising and re-raising, and people having pot odds multiway to hit their set. even though its just a slight increase in the amount of pocket pairs given out- it could still net ignition piles of money over time and would be very hard to prove its rigged. Remember also, more pocket pairs means more multi way pots preflop, which is one of the ideal situations for rake, many people calling before the flop as they get a piece of more players contributing to the rake before the flop. Even if people could prove it, the rig is so slight and technical it would be hard to prove, even with evidence.

Think "office space" when they are taking that fraction of a penny each time. in and of itself, even 100 times, it doesnt seem suspicious at all, even 10,000 times. But over time if you run enough samples or in this case hands... it becomes a pile of money.

Well in that case you're a big poo-poo head.

that was the best thing you've said and is actually funny.

There are hundreds of millions of hands available.

No one tweak is isolated from the rest of the deck, cannot hide it.

I don't use huds or programs, as I think theyre cheating, although I do support poker tracker as its for personal improvement but I still don't use it. I don't play poker as a job, and I still am a winning player playing without it anyways. I understand the advantage to them, but I feel like ignition could shut you down whenever they wanted citing use of unapproved programs if they felt like it and you wouldnt be able to really do **** about it. Sort of like how the federal government could come into any rec weed legal state if they really wanted to, and shut down any dispensary in the united states, overruling state law, if they really wanted to.

Now, many many many dispensaries operate anyways, but it doesn't mean that the federal government still couldn't shut them down and they wouldnt be able to do **** about it anyways. They always can. Ignition is like the federal government here, and you are the dispensary. They probably wouldn't shut you down for using the huds and hand grabbers and **** like that. But they could if they wanted to. They reserve the right to change their TOS at any time, and could ammend that at any time, without notice, and immediately ban people using it after that and confiscate their funds. Who are you going to go to? they aren't licensed by any comission, at least for their RNG. You can't go to the US gov't cause they won't care either. All you will be able to do is make a post on 2+2 where people will doubt you're telling the full story as they seem to do with every thread i've read like that (usually rightfully so)



If I suddenly started becoming a losing player I might consider a hud, but personally I feel like learning how to and being able to beat the game without programs will make you a better player.

I mean live, do you really know someones aggression factor? or their 3-bet percentage?

You just know they raise generally this amount, and 3-bet generally that amount.

And you can still win. The programs are more for people who are doing this for a living and want to push and exploit every edge. I could understand the justification of a program or hud then. But it simply doesn't make sense with the amount of time im putting in, and that im profitable anyways. There are better ways in life that are more fulfilling to make money and are less stressful and time consuming then to take the hud path and try to pay for a living or more than part time.

No, the HUD will enable you to analyze your entire HH. There is no pen and paper stuff. It is automatic and done in seconds.

To analyze, quickly, 25 million hands would literally take less than an entire minute.

hundreds of millions of hands generated by Ignitions RNG 9 handed? Where?

Wait are you saying that ignition has saved all of my hand histories ever in an archive and I can access them instantly by downloading a hud and importing them? without ever using poker tracker or any logging software? seriously?

So in order to increase profit by ~1% in situations involving pockets pairs (and don't forget without that tweak you still would have made a profit during those hands, just not as much, so let's call it an extra 0.5% profit) someone would rig the software?

A number of people would presumably have to be involved, some would have to be paid to do the work, others may expect payment to stay quiet. That 0.5% wouldn't go far, but let's be conservative and just call it 0.25% of profits that we'd have to pay out, so our profit has now increased by just 0.25% from our software rig.

The likelihood of this rig being discovered is small but someone could talk. Once word got out it would ruin the site of course. Let's be VERY generous and put that risk at just a 5% chance.

So our EV from applying this rig, where X, is our current profit is approximately....

0.952375X

hmmm. I hope you don't own a business.

As I stated earlier, one software engineer knowledgeable in the software it is designed in, could easily make changes to the software that were needed for this rig. He/she could be paid a one time amount equivalent to about what he/she would make in 5-10 years would sign a non disclosure agreement in a second to take a job like that, and would never run his/her mouth if the non disclosure agreement is drawn up properly by the lawyer, as he would forfeit his pay and do prison time if he breached the agreement.

I am not sure you understand the power of a non disclosure agreement if drawn up by an intelligent lawyer. Its part of the reason why our current president has not been outed for his various slime dealings he hushed with non disclosure agreements and hush money. You know why he won't release his taxes? because it would show the names of the women (or their families) he has sexually assaulted or the underage women he has been with who he has paid off. Hush money is paid along with the signature of a non disclosure agreement. Also in these agreements are punishments or damages agreed to by both parties (via signature) if any of the stipulations of the contract is breached.

Why would a company make any deal with a programmer(s) where they can be extorted for future payments? This is a gigantic oversight on your part and you do not know much about contractual laws. They would make a contract with a one time payment or a two time payment with a portion up front and a portion when the work is completed. No company with Ignitions wealth would not retain a top of their class contractual lawyer to draw up a contract like this.

Now lets get to the ~1%. You're acting like it matters that the percentage is small when we are talking about literally millions and millions of hands over years that will have more rake taken out of them then normally.

I really can't write another thoughtful response to you dude, you just don't argue intelligently or coherently

I know I said it before but really Im not going to respond to any more of your posts. Youre a hater for the sake of being a hater. There's nothing worth addressing further in what you say.

I'm pretty sure (99.9%) this is true. If you can't find the option in the client you can email support and they should be able to either direct you as to how to access it or email them to you.

This is amazing. I will e-mail them if I can't find it.

Do you have to run the hud with the poker software open to analyze the hands?

Or can you import and analyze them with ignition closed. If you can run it with ignition closed, I will try to do this tonight

Lol, this is all nonsense.

1. If you're paying someone off, you don't fn write it off on your taxes, ffs.

2. A non disclosure is meaningless when laws are broken. Whistleblowers....hello?

3. Software to tweak a hand or player is not done in a vacuum. There will be many hands effected by this.

4. Almost every site, not all, will provide you with your HH. Lost as to how you do not know this.

You're definitely in full blown riggie mode. You're also showing, conclusively, that you really don't know what you are talking about . That isn't meant as a snide comment. You're just saying a lot of things that make no sense. There are only two reasons for it, 1. You're trolling or 2. You are lost. Your questions seem sincere and without hubris, so I'd guess you just are naive to what is available and some poker math

The only reason the client needs to be open is to import/analyze hands in real time. Once you have the hh's dl'd into the hud they remain there and you can do whatever you'd like with them, with the client closed or open.

I'd suggest looking in the client in ignition to see if you can DL them. I've not played there in a while but I know that used to be an option. Or email them but after you get the text files, pick whatever hud you want and then import the hhs, there's a manual function and an auto function which is used for live play. Once they're in there you're good to go.

lol



Oh my God. Of course it matters that it's ONLY 1%, because that 1% is offset by the risk percentage which will be significantly greater than 1%. Dear me.

Finally we have found something to agree on

a simple internet search before speaking would have saved you looking foolish, as you are calling me a fool, when you are horribly uninformed. The settlement hush payments he makes are taxable on the RECIPIENTS end.

The Recipient must then declare where the money came from or they would be very clearly audited by the IRS for any deposited amount over 9999.99$ (but really for any amount over 9000 as they could consider it structuring if its 9999.99$) unless they received it in cash and never deposited it and used it on gas and groceries the rest of their life in which case they would be comitting tax evasion (and even in this situation, the paying party would also have to be compliant in this ruse, which is unlikely, as there was a problem so incurable it required a settlement in the first place).


As I said, it basically depends on the intelligence of your lawyer when he writes the contract, but usually the person paying the hush money will still have to be declared because of the person receiving it having to pay tax on it.

There's even an example here to explain it to you, check the section titled "Are NDA's taxable":

1. https://thedailycpa.com/2018/05/07/a...ments-taxable/


Nice try though bro.

Knowing who you were talking to would help you from looking foolish. Some of the people you are arguing with have been around the industry for decades making piles of $ and also helping people. You on the other hand, don't know how to get hhs, nor have a hud but are in here as the self proclaimed expert. IMO you're being a bit obtuse to say the least when people are trying to help you.