Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > > >

Discussion of Poker Sites General discussion of online poker sites.

View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,445 34.94%
No 5,522 56.00%
Undecided 893 9.06%
Voters: 9860. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-22-2009, 12:32 PM   #8601
Monteroy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 14,097
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

You cannot even win a debate with yourself.
Monteroy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 12:57 PM   #8602
qpw
banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Pulling the tails of rigtards
Posts: 4,019
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
Sorry the last post, I answered to myself..

Here it goes:


Im talking about beta or alfa error,dont remember, I think is beta error, selection error or someting like that.


What I mean is that if you are chasing rigged hads you have to treot it as a population, there is no sense in analyse the entire population together, you have to focus in the probable rigged hands and analyse that population of hands.
As I said, you appear to know nothing about statistical analysis.

Quote:
That makes pretty sense to me. I hope.
You hope it makes pretty sense to you?

I would have thought it would behove you to at the very least make sure it made sense to you before subjecting the rest of us to it.

As it is, I'm afraid it makes no sense whatsoever.

Are you suggesting that we take all the examples of hands that people think indicate the deal is rigged and analyse them to see if they follow the expected, fair, distribution.

Because I think I can be pretty sure that they won't.

DUCY?
qpw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 12:58 PM   #8603
toltec444
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 496
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
You cannot even win a debate with yourself.
You are the one that is trying to win.

I´m just trying to think and talk.
toltec444 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 01:00 PM   #8604
Monteroy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 14,097
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
You are the one that is trying to win.

I´m just trying to think and talk.
Multi-task less.
Monteroy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 01:15 PM   #8605
qpw
banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Pulling the tails of rigtards
Posts: 4,019
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
You are the one that is trying to win.

I´m just trying to think and talk.
For God's sake don't do that whilst trying to chew gum.
qpw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 01:33 PM   #8606
toltec444
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 496
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by qpw View Post
As I said, you appear to know nothing about statistical analysis.



You hope it makes pretty sense to you?

I would have thought it would behove you to at the very least make sure it made sense to you before subjecting the rest of us to it.

As it is, I'm afraid it makes no sense whatsoever.

Are you suggesting that we take all the examples of hands that people think indicate the deal is rigged and analyse them to see if they follow the expected, fair, distribution.

Because I think I can be pretty sure that they won't.

DUCY?
What I´m suggesting is that a poker room could change the win rate of just a population of hands. For example, they could change the EV of 56s in big pots PF all in AND 75o EV in big PF all in AND the EV of AQo in big pots PF all ins.

That means that only those hands in that particular situation (big pots all in PF) will have their EV altered.

Of course I´m using these hands as an example, the key point of my argumnet is that in these hipothetical situation you would never detect those rigged hands running a billion hands analisys that would include all other hands that are not rigged. You would indeed acomplish the opossite result you were looking for, the rigged hands would be disguised by the non rigged ones.


Another exmple: lets say you go all in PF with AA and for simplicity this hand has 50% EV, so you expect to win 50% at SD.

Lets say you play 100 times this hand all in pre flop, you go to your Pokertracker database and its there, you won 50% of the times, everything seems right. But then, you make a different anaçlisys, and you discover that 100% of the times you played a big pot (200BB or more PF) you lost, but the overall EV in your database was not out of the expected because all those small pots you won took the stats to the right EV.

If your EV is 50% you should´ve won 50% of the big pots all pre flops ith your AA.


Got it now?
toltec444 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 01:35 PM   #8607
Arouet
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Arouet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 6,433
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by qpw View Post
What's the difference between a 'bot and a superbot?
I think it was posited by whatever rigtard (TK?) put it forward that superbots are bots that know everyone's hole cards.

That is to be distinguished from the superduperbots of which the only known, confirmed example is this guy:



No one knows just how powerful these superduperbots are, but please be ever watchful and report any further sightings.
Arouet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 01:52 PM   #8608
toltec444
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 496
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arouet View Post
I think it was posited by whatever rigtard (TK?) put it forward that superbots are bots that know everyone's hole cards.

That is to be distinguished from the superduperbots of which the only known, confirmed example is this guy:



No one knows just how powerful these superduperbots are, but please be ever watchful and report any further sightings.
If you look closely you will notice thi is not a superduperbot, its a disguised liztak!!!!!

But only a lizard people expert could see that.
toltec444 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 02:42 PM   #8609
qpw
banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Pulling the tails of rigtards
Posts: 4,019
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
If you look closely you will notice thi is not a superduperbot, its a disguised liztak!!!!!
By God, he's right!
qpw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 02:45 PM   #8610
alexstat
veteran
 
alexstat's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Got your Clutch sample size!
Posts: 3,442
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
You cannot even win a debate with yourself.
He is lizard people.
alexstat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 03:13 PM   #8611
Markusgc
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Markusgc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Noodles, Hockey & Punk Rock!
Posts: 8,788
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by qpw View Post
What's the difference between a 'bot and a superbot?
a big "S" on their shirt, ldo.
Markusgc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 03:15 PM   #8612
Markusgc
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Markusgc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Noodles, Hockey & Punk Rock!
Posts: 8,788
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
Im pretty sure you work to some poker room, and your job is to try to make any thinking about rigged sites something silly or lunatic, likw I was talking about some UFO conspiracy.
A 16 year-old at McDonalds could do excel at this position between drive-thru orders.
Markusgc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 03:17 PM   #8613
Markusgc
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Markusgc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Noodles, Hockey & Punk Rock!
Posts: 8,788
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
If you want to know if there is an association between cigarette smoke and lung cancer you have to study smokers. If you put people that dont smoke in the group that should be only smokers you are making a selection error, the smokers population is biased.


The same happens to the hands you want to analyse. If you pick the non rigged hands and put them in in the probably rigged hands group you are going to find nothing.


That means that finding possible rigged hands is not as simple as running an "all hands" billion analisys. Such analysis just prove that the entire population of hands taken togheter is ok, but says nothing about specif groups of hands.

The problem gets bigger when you realize the these specific groups can be infinity, because you can add to the speceific hands variable the "point in time" variable.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7w64fbqYQY
Markusgc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 03:27 PM   #8614
ghbond
newbie
 
ghbond's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 36
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

I play Full Tilt (FT), so all my comments are based on that experience.

First, most players at small stakes are losers, for three reasons. Of course, it is hard to beat the rake. Second, there are a lot of players who won't fold a hand, so you will see more suckouts, which tends to reduce the value of good play and increase variance. Third, a combination of a better level of players than you would expect, and sniping by short-stackers makes it tough to beat. Be sure that you take notes on who the donkeys are, and use some kind of player statistics.

HOWEVER, there ARE winners at each level, so if you adjust your play to the level you are working, a really good player will win.

As far as the tables being rigged, I think that most players have the experience of having a real good run, and thinking because you are winning that you are a good player, and then having an equally bad run and losing all that equity. I see it in over half of the player equity charts I see, and I look at them every day. If you went to a casino one night and rolled good dice, and the following night they went cold and you lost it all, would you blame the dice? Would you be looking around for Danny Ocean?

As poker players, we get an exaggerated opinion of how important our skill is. Skill only counts for a small margin. If you estimate that you have an average 60% advantage on all your shoves, and if you consider a series of 6 shoves, Take 40% to the sixth power, and you will find that you're going to lose those six shoves in a row every so often. Pro players who feed their families on-line have losing days, and even losing streaks.

Bottom line to me is this: There ARE consistent winning players on Full Tilt. One of them is a good friend of mine, so they ARE real people. If you are not winning, look to the mirror first before you imagine evil programs in the FT computer designed to beat you.

I see AA vs AA too often, and it makes me suspicious. However, I'm never going to know if FT is skewing the odds to create more showdowns, so all I can do is adapt my game to what I see. I've seen quads vs. quads in live play, and every one-outer suckout there is, so only the insiders will ever know for sure.

For those of you who are convinced it's crooked, FT offers a 500K play chip tournament every night that allows a good player to win $2 by finishing in the top 18, which is not hard for a good player to do about 50% of the time. Win 50 of those, and you can have FT ship you a check for $100, without any risk on your part.
ghbond is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 03:31 PM   #8615
qpw
banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Pulling the tails of rigtards
Posts: 4,019
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghbond View Post
First, most players at small stakes are losers, for three reasons. Of course, it is hard to beat the rake. Second, there are a lot of players who won't fold a hand, so you will see more suckouts, which tends to reduce the value of good play and increase variance. Third, a combination of a better level of players than you would expect, and sniping by short-stackers makes it tough to beat.
Your second observation is not a contributory reason for others (i.e. those who will fold a hand) to be losers.
qpw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 03:33 PM   #8616
Markusgc
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Markusgc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Noodles, Hockey & Punk Rock!
Posts: 8,788
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghbond View Post
For those of you who are convinced it's crooked, FT offers a 500K play chip tournament every night that allows a good player to win $2 by finishing in the top 18,
paging Mikeal_DH
Quote:
which is not hard for a good player to do about 50% of the time. Win 50 of those, and you can have FT ship you a check for $100, without any risk on your part.
what about a pretty decent ok good above average poker player? what could they expect?
Markusgc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 03:48 PM   #8617
toltec444
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 496
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Markusgc View Post
lol.....very good!!!


I think I explained myself better in the other post.

Ahead...
toltec444 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 05:02 PM   #8618
DonkoTheClown
adept
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 741
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
What I´m suggesting is that a poker room could change the win rate of just a population of hands. For example, they could change the EV of 56s in big pots PF all in AND 75o EV in big PF all in AND the EV of AQo in big pots PF all ins.

That means that only those hands in that particular situation (big pots all in PF) will have their EV altered.

Of course I´m using these hands as an example, the key point of my argumnet is that in these hipothetical situation you would never detect those rigged hands running a billion hands analisys that would include all other hands that are not rigged. You would indeed acomplish the opossite result you were looking for, the rigged hands would be disguised by the non rigged ones.


Another exmple: lets say you go all in PF with AA and for simplicity this hand has 50% EV, so you expect to win 50% at SD.

Lets say you play 100 times this hand all in pre flop, you go to your Pokertracker database and its there, you won 50% of the times, everything seems right. But then, you make a different anaçlisys, and you discover that 100% of the times you played a big pot (200BB or more PF) you lost, but the overall EV in your database was not out of the expected because all those small pots you won took the stats to the right EV.

If your EV is 50% you should´ve won 50% of the big pots all pre flops ith your AA.


Got it now?
So simply put, are you saying that hands could be rigged enough to manipulate the bottom line enough to be profitable for the online site, yet still be within the range of statistical norm?
DonkoTheClown is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 05:30 PM   #8619
Monteroy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 14,097
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkoTheClown View Post
So simply put, are you saying that hands could be rigged enough to manipulate the bottom line enough to be profitable for the online site, yet still be within the range of statistical norm?
He is trying very hard to create a master theory out of thin air that would meet these conditions, but his keeps falling short in large part because he has no idea how basic statistical analysis or human behavior works.


I only half joke when I suggest Lizard People as an alternative, because it meets all the same conditions of a wacky rigged theory without having the drawbacks of it being so easily proven false. One can always adapt Lizard People for any counterpoint

People inside would tell:

His theory: Requires hundreds/thousands to never tell, even those out of their jobs.

Lizard People: They do not tell because the Lizard people use their mind control to prevent it from being told.


Why would a company risk it all for minimal gain:

His theory: People/companies are greedy without any concern of any consequence even if severe and completely not worth the risk

Lizard people: No problem, they cannot be caught and if someone discovers them they simply erase their memory



Wouldn't it get caught anyway via statistical means:

His theory: I know nothing of math but I think superbots wouldn't be caught, right? I mean just change a few hands, who notices?

Lizard People: They make sure it would never be caught, if so no problem - poof mind control.


Lizard People are definitely the way to go between these two choices.
Monteroy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 05:33 PM   #8620
LetsGambool
banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 26,578
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
What I´m suggesting is that a poker room could change the win rate of just a population of hands. For example, they could change the EV of 56s in big pots PF all in AND 75o EV in big PF all in AND the EV of AQo in big pots PF all ins.

That means that only those hands in that particular situation (big pots all in PF) will have their EV altered.

Of course I´m using these hands as an example, the key point of my argumnet is that in these hipothetical situation you would never detect those rigged hands running a billion hands analisys that would include all other hands that are not rigged. You would indeed acomplish the opossite result you were looking for, the rigged hands would be disguised by the non rigged ones.


Another exmple: lets say you go all in PF with AA and for simplicity this hand has 50% EV, so you expect to win 50% at SD.

Lets say you play 100 times this hand all in pre flop, you go to your Pokertracker database and its there, you won 50% of the times, everything seems right. But then, you make a different anaçlisys, and you discover that 100% of the times you played a big pot (200BB or more PF) you lost, but the overall EV in your database was not out of the expected because all those small pots you won took the stats to the right EV.

If your EV is 50% you should´ve won 50% of the big pots all pre flops ith your AA.


Got it now?
Why wouldnt this show up in expected value of dollars (not hands) won being off over a large sample? If everyone in this forum collected their AA hands, this is easily detectable.
LetsGambool is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 05:37 PM   #8621
ghbond
newbie
 
ghbond's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 36
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Markusgc View Post
paging Mikeal_DH

what about a pretty decent ok good above average poker player? what could they expect?
Pretty decent ok good above average poker players will bubble out every time, and after losing 4 or 5 500K play chip tourneys, they will come here and write about how play chip poker is rigged too.

So just avoid the hero calls once it's down to 22 players, OK?
ghbond is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 06:47 PM   #8622
alexstat
veteran
 
alexstat's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Got your Clutch sample size!
Posts: 3,442
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Lizard People: They do not tell because the Lizard people use their mind control to prevent it from being told.

Lizard people: No problem, they cannot be caught and if someone discovers them they simply erase their memory

Lizard People: They make sure it would never be caught, if so no problem - poof mind control.

Lizard People are definitely the way to go between these two choices.
PokerStars Professional dress code:

alexstat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 07:14 PM   #8623
toltec444
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 496
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by LetsGambool View Post
Why wouldnt this show up in expected value of dollars (not hands) won being off over a large sample? If everyone in this forum collected their AA hands, this is easily detectable.
Thats a good answer. So the analysis has to take into account not just the frequency the hand won but the amount of money won by the hand.

Is it possible do make such analisys (taking into account the money won?)
toltec444 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 07:18 PM   #8624
Markusgc
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Markusgc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Noodles, Hockey & Punk Rock!
Posts: 8,788
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
Thats a good answer. So the analysis has to take into account not just the frequency the hand won but the amount of money won by the hand.
I think it should also note whether the user likes pickles or not, which everyone knows is the only defense against our Lizard Overlords.
Markusgc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2009, 07:20 PM   #8625
toltec444
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 496
re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

lizards dont like pickles? really?
toltec444 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:14 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive