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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
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Old 09-14-2009, 10:21 PM   #8501
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Re: Poker Rigged Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post

Is Full Tilt rigged for action?




Yes
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Old 09-14-2009, 11:41 PM   #8502
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Re: Poker Rigged Question

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Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
PLO - I have been playing PLO cash for the last few months. I keep seeing 3 of a kind on the board (flop, turn and river). Generally, with the action, the winning player is counterfeited by the OP when the third card (say 10) hits the board giving the player with the pocket pair the winning full house. The counterfeited player normally had aces or kings up. I counted 44 trips on the board in a 6 hour period, playing two or three tables.
You see about 60 hands an hour, per table, so you saw 720-1,080 hands. We'll just go for the middle and call it 900. So out of 900 hands, the board had trips 44 times, or about 4.8% of the time. I'm awful at odds and had a tough time Googling the right ones, but that does seem higher than it should be.
Quote:
In both PLO and NL, the turn card hits everyone in the hand. Everyone - it puts up the flush, two pair open ended straight draw.... I see this happen repeatedly (play a micro limit rebuy tournament and just keep pushing all in so you get to see all the cards) on-line but generally only see it once an hour in live action.
When it only hits one person, you'll never know because the hands don't get shown down. And if you say it happens once an hour live, you're saying it happens 1/30 hands.
Quote:
NL Tournament - when players are all in, the number of times the winner goes runner runner for a flush or a straight after being significantly behind on the flop.
When were they all in? If it was preflop, their flop equities are meaningless.
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Old 09-15-2009, 08:32 AM   #8503
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

odds of 3 of a kind out of 5 card holding is 1/424 (from 5 card stud - not the board but do not believe this has any bearing on the issue)
So I should be seeing it 2x every 900 hands....not double digits.
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Old 09-15-2009, 08:47 AM   #8504
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
odds of 3 of a kind out of 5 card holding is 1/424 (from 5 card stud - not the board but do not believe this has any bearing on the issue)
So I should be seeing it 2x every 900 hands....not double digits.
Do you have any data that shows its happening every xx amount of hands? If not, what are you basing your statement on?
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Old 09-15-2009, 09:00 AM   #8505
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
odds of 3 of a kind out of 5 card holding is 1/424 (from 5 card stud - not the board but do not believe this has any bearing on the issue)
So I should be seeing it 2x every 900 hands....not double digits.
No, you've misread something somewhere. Triplet *flops* in holdem (3 matched ranks on the board at the flop) should occur at the rate of
(52*3*2) / 132600 = 1/426

Triplets on the full board is much more frequent, approximately 1/47. That is also the chance of 3 of a kind (or quads) in 5-card stud.

So in 900 full boards, you would expect to see 19 on average.

Edit - I should note that in holdem, there are probably some significant card removal effects at work since you only get to the river about a quarter of the time, and player decisions to get there will affect the frequency of a triplet on the board. I haven't given it much thought to see if there might be an effect that alters the frequency. It's possible that 44/900 is normal. The expected probability of 1/47 is only exactly true if all rivers are seen.

Last edited by spadebidder; 09-15-2009 at 09:15 AM.
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Old 09-15-2009, 09:00 AM   #8506
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
odds of 3 of a kind out of 5 card holding is 1/424 (from 5 card stud - not the board but do not believe this has any bearing on the issue)
So I should be seeing it 2x every 900 hands....not double digits.
Thanks for the math. Like NooooBingo said, do you have the HHs from when this happened, or was it a pencil and paper type thing?

Couple other questions, though:
1) What advantage is there for them to rig it so obviously like this?
2) If it's happening 22 times as often as it should, why has no one else noticed it before?
Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
No, you've misread something somewhere. Triplet *flops* in holdem (3 matched ranks on the board) should occur at the rate of
(52*3*2) / 132600 = 1/426

Triplets on the full board is much more frequent, approximately 1/47. That is also the chance of 3 of a kind (or quads) in 5-card stud.

So in 900 full boards, you would expect to see 19 on average.
And spade to the rescue with better math. So you only saw trips on board twice as often as you'd expect to.
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Old 09-15-2009, 09:45 AM   #8507
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by otatop View Post
Thanks for the math. Like NooooBingo said, do you have the HHs from when this happened, or was it a pencil and paper type thing?

Couple other questions, though:
1) What advantage is there for them to rig it so obviously like this?
2) If it's happening 22 times as often as it should, why has no one else noticed it before?


And spade to the rescue with better math. So you only saw trips on board twice as often as you'd expect to.
That is also assuming his claim of what he remembers he saw is accurate, and I think we all know historically how accurate that type of data presentation has been.

Since he will never provide actual proof or hand history data, I would agree that the biggest questions if somehow his version of reality was true is what benefit it would be (trips on board are not really action hands) and why would no one else have noticed this by now and why would the sites choose such a blatant way to rig it if that is what they were doing.

It's a rigged theory that does not even make sense in the context of other rigged theories (that can at least pretend that it would make the sites more money or punish good players etc).

Perhaps this is a harbinger of rigged theories to come once spade's immense data is available publicly. More pure made up stuff and variations of ninja nanosuperbots. Could be a vintage year of creativity.
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Old 09-15-2009, 10:18 AM   #8508
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
No, you've misread something somewhere. Triplet *flops* in holdem (3 matched ranks on the board at the flop) should occur at the rate of
(52*3*2) / 132600 = 1/426
Should be 1/425.
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Old 09-15-2009, 10:24 AM   #8509
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Interesting set of hands...

Hi guys, first post. I'm a newbie to the poker scene, only been playing a week or so. I've only been playing on Full Tilt in that time.

Today I had a weird set of hands while playing three tables at once on 0.01/0.02. These examples come from about 200 hands dealt.

Example 1
On Table 1 I was dealt 66, then a second later I was dealt 66 on Table 2. On both tables the flops had two picture cards and a middle card. Very similar.

Example 2
Later, on Table 1 I was dealt QQ and a second later I was dealt JJ on Table 2. On both tables the flop was two picture cards and a middle card. Very similar.

Example 3
Later, on Table 1 I was dealt AKo and a second later I was dealt AKs on Table 2. On both tables the flop was QJ and a middle card. Very similar.

Example 4
Finally, on Table 1 I was dealt 55 and a second later I was dealt 66 on table 2. Both flops were three picture cards.

Is this kind of thing wierd/normal? Is it down to variance? It just makes me think that online poker isn't quite random.

Help a newbie out!
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Old 09-15-2009, 10:30 AM   #8510
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Re: Interesting set of hands...

And what happened in the other 196 hands? Nothing you say? Weird...
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Old 09-15-2009, 10:35 AM   #8511
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Re: Interesting set of hands...

Well I've never seen these kind of nearly identical hands at the same time (literally a second away from each other)

Just wanted to know if it's normal is all...
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Old 09-15-2009, 10:45 AM   #8512
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Re: Poker Rigged Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812 View Post
First time post but I wanted to see if there is any research out there to make an informed decision.

Is Full Tilt rigged for action?

I have been playing on Full Tilt regularly for about a year now. I will confess that my on-line poker play is much worse than my live play. I am a winning 2/5 no limit player. In the local live tournament scene I generally make the final table at the deep stack tournaments. My on-line play is more sporatic. Usually when I start a tournament online, I want to leave my office before it is finished. I also use to check the stats of all the other players but no longer do. Also, I generally play too low of limits and make alot more moves than I ever would playing live. Overall, I am a losing tournament player online but I have won seats to atlantis tourni (pokerstars), a seat to the world series and I cashed last year in the main event of the wsop. So dont just write this off as bitching of a losing on-line player....

What I am questioning is some of the things I see over and over again that I consider highly suspicious.

PLO - I have been playing PLO cash for the last few months. I keep seeing 3 of a kind on the board (flop, turn and river). Generally, with the action, the winning player is counterfeited by the OP when the third card (say 10) hits the board giving the player with the pocket pair the winning full house. The counterfeited player normally had aces or kings up. I counted 44 trips on the board in a 6 hour period, playing two or three tables.

In both PLO and NL, the turn card hits everyone in the hand. Everyone - it puts up the flush, two pair open ended straight draw.... I see this happen repeatedly (play a micro limit rebuy tournament and just keep pushing all in so you get to see all the cards) on-line but generally only see it once an hour in live action.

NL Tournament - when players are all in, the number of times the winner goes runner runner for a flush or a straight after being significantly behind on the flop.

Has anyone ever mathmatically compared the number of times these type of events occur on a particular site to compare to the relative probability? Is there any studies of the different sites variances?

Dude your delusional. It's all about trust dude. Your telling me a gaming commission, that is independent from US law, would allow a site to rig a deck for business motives? Or let people access super user abilities? What's wrong with you? Havent you heard of morals and ethics? Your obviously just a bad player....
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Old 09-15-2009, 11:02 AM   #8513
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyromantha View Post
Should be 1/425.
Thanks, guess I rounded wrong before coffee this morning (to get 1/426).
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Old 09-15-2009, 11:23 AM   #8514
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Re: Interesting set of hands...

It's almost certainly normal.

Statistics, and randomness, are, I think, two of the most poorly understood subjects in our society, and it's poorly understood because truly understanding this stuff runs directly contrary to billions of years of evolution.

In short, our brains are hard wired to identify patterns quickly, and rely upon those judgements. If our forebears saw a lion running quickly towards us, they needed to very quickly identify it as a threat, plot a likely path of the lion, and get out of the way... and if they didn't identify this pattern, they'd die pretty quickly. Consequently, the only people alive today are the descendants of people who were good at identifying patterns.

However, this same pattern-finding ability in our brains is what messes things up. Precisely the same thing happens in poker - people see several similar hands in a row, and our natural pattern-finding habit kicks in... but this time, it isn't really there.

This is exacerbated by our mind only remembering those things that are notable.
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Old 09-15-2009, 11:28 AM   #8515
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Re: Interesting set of hands...

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Originally Posted by Josem View Post
It's almost certainly normal.

Statistics, and randomness, are, I think, two of the most poorly understood subjects in our society, and it's poorly understood because truly understanding this stuff runs directly contrary to billions of years of evolution.

In short, our brains are hard wired to identify patterns quickly, and rely upon those judgements. If our forebears saw a lion running quickly towards us, they needed to very quickly identify it as a threat, plot a likely path of the lion, and get out of the way... and if they didn't identify this pattern, they'd die pretty quickly. Consequently, the only people alive today are the descendants of people who were good at identifying patterns.

However, this same pattern-finding ability in our brains is what messes things up. Precisely the same thing happens in poker - people see several similar hands in a row, and our natural pattern-finding habit kicks in... but this time, it isn't really there.

This is exacerbated by our mind only remembering those things that are notable.
This is the main problem people have imo
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Old 09-15-2009, 11:33 AM   #8516
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Re: Interesting set of hands...

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Originally Posted by .TIA View Post
This is the main problem people have imo
Well said! I have nothing else to say.

Last edited by Cry Me A River; 09-16-2009 at 05:18 PM.
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Old 09-15-2009, 11:42 AM   #8517
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Re: Interesting set of hands...

Quote:
Originally Posted by InspiredHack View Post
Well I've never seen these kind of nearly identical hands at the same time (literally a second away from each other)

Just wanted to know if it's normal is all...
If you've only been playing a week or so, I'm sure you haven't seen much of anything. But what exactly is it that you find suspicious in these hands?
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Old 09-15-2009, 11:52 AM   #8518
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Only because they were happening at the same time on two separate tables...just seemed a little far fetched that it happened 4 times in 200 hands.

Perhaps I'm just seeing a pattern that isn't there, as some have pointed out. Who knows? I like a good conspiracy though :P
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Old 09-15-2009, 12:05 PM   #8519
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by InspiredHack View Post
Only because they were happening at the same time on two separate tables...just seemed a little far fetched that it happened 4 times in 200 hands.

Perhaps I'm just seeing a pattern that isn't there, as some have pointed out. Who knows? I like a good conspiracy though :P
Superbots is a better conspiracy, because it sounds sexier than a pattern recognition belief at the penny tables.

You are just noticing patterns. Shuffle 4 decks of cards together and deal them out at random and you will see patterns in it as well (then you can decide if you rigged it or not).

Watch this video as well

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98OTs...e=channel_page

Quote:
Originally Posted by tk1133 View Post
Dude your delusional. It's all about trust dude. Your telling me a gaming commission, that is independent from US law, would allow a site to rig a deck for business motives? Or let people access super user abilities? What's wrong with you? Havent you heard of morals and ethics? Your obviously just a bad player....
Trust that newbie dramatic sarcasm tends to suck. Just stick with posting 60/40 single hands as proof of your beliefs.
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Old 09-15-2009, 12:16 PM   #8520
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
Thanks, guess I rounded wrong before coffee this morning (to get 1/426).
That's because you did big complicated sums

Chance of flopping trips =

p(first card is anything in the deck) * p(second card is same rank as first) * p(third card is same rank as first)

= 52/52 * 3/51 * 2/50
= 1/17 * 1/25
= 1/425
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Old 09-15-2009, 12:22 PM   #8521
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Re: Interesting set of hands...

Quote:
Originally Posted by InspiredHack View Post
Well I've never seen these kind of nearly identical hands at the same time (literally a second away from each other)

Just wanted to know if it's normal is all...
'Normal' is a bit of a movable feast where poker hands are concerned.

There are so many hand (hundreds of millions per week) being dealt that someone is going to see some veryweird stuff from time to time.

There's nothing particularly odd about your observed hands, though.
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Old 09-15-2009, 01:30 PM   #8522
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Re: Interesting set of hands...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josem View Post
It's almost certainly normal.

Statistics, and randomness, are, I think, two of the most poorly understood subjects in our society, and it's poorly understood because truly understanding this stuff runs directly contrary to billions of years of evolution.

In short, our brains are hard wired to identify patterns quickly, and rely upon those judgements. If our forebears saw a lion running quickly towards us, they needed to very quickly identify it as a threat, plot a likely path of the lion, and get out of the way... and if they didn't identify this pattern, they'd die pretty quickly. Consequently, the only people alive today are the descendants of people who were good at identifying patterns.

However, this same pattern-finding ability in our brains is what messes things up. Precisely the same thing happens in poker - people see several similar hands in a row, and our natural pattern-finding habit kicks in... but this time, it isn't really there.

This is exacerbated by our mind only remembering those things that are notable.
People really should be forced to take a course or two, say "Variance 101" and "Randomness - It's not what you think it is", before being allowed to poast anything about rigged games.

Edit: Oh, and "203 forms of Memory Bias" should probably be included as well.

And your new avatar is severely tilting me out, plz to be change?
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Old 09-15-2009, 01:36 PM   #8523
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Unhappy re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyromantha View Post
That's because you did big complicated sums

Chance of flopping trips =

p(first card is anything in the deck) * p(second card is same rank as first) * p(third card is same rank as first)

= 52/52 * 3/51 * 2/50
= 1/17 * 1/25
= 1/425
Well, I did the same thing, almost.

I used (52*3*2) / (52*51*50)
but then rather than reducing it I just plugged it in the calculator, and rounded wrong either by leaving off a significant figure or by reading the display wrong.

So yeah, I guess I did use big sums after all.

Last edited by spadebidder; 09-15-2009 at 01:44 PM.
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Old 09-15-2009, 03:57 PM   #8524
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Re: Monsters vs. Monsters on Full Tilt

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Originally Posted by SwedishMedusa View Post
Grandpa: Are we there yet?
Homer: No
Grandpa: Are we there yet?
Homer: No
Grandpa: Are we there yet?
Homer: No
Grandpa: ........Where are we going?



LOL!
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Old 09-15-2009, 06:54 PM   #8525
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re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by InspiredHack View Post
Only because they were happening at the same time on two separate tables...just seemed a little far fetched that it happened 4 times in 200 hands.

Perhaps I'm just seeing a pattern that isn't there, as some have pointed out. Who knows? I like a good conspiracy though :P
I was 2 tabling a few months ago, and got KK on one table, AA on the other. I won a huuuuuuuge pot on both tables (just the blinds with KK, the blinds, a limp, and a raise with AA) and then the next hands were dealt. 22 on the table I had KK on, and...AA on the AA table! And if that's not enough, they were the same suit! Unfortunately, the second go-round I lost 33 big blinds to a short stacker who jammed a 2Q5 flop with AQ, and got another Q on the river! So rigged!

Also, and I don't think this "coincidence" can be overlooked, but the person to my right at the back to back AA table? "AArules"!
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