Yes

You see about 60 hands an hour, per table, so you saw 720-1,080 hands. We'll just go for the middle and call it 900. So out of 900 hands, the board had trips 44 times, or about 4.8% of the time. I'm awful at odds and had a tough time Googling the right ones, but that does seem higher than it should be. When it only hits one person, you'll never know because the hands don't get shown down. And if you say it happens once an hour live, you're saying it happens 1/30 hands. When were they all in? If it was preflop, their flop equities are meaningless.

odds of 3 of a kind out of 5 card holding is 1/424 (from 5 card stud - not the board but do not believe this has any bearing on the issue)
So I should be seeing it 2x every 900 hands....not double digits.

Do you have any data that shows its happening every xx amount of hands? If not, what are you basing your statement on?

No, you've misread something somewhere. Triplet *flops* in holdem (3 matched ranks on the board at the flop) should occur at the rate of
(52*3*2) / 132600 = 1/426

Triplets on the full board is much more frequent, approximately 1/47. That is also the chance of 3 of a kind (or quads) in 5-card stud.

So in 900 full boards, you would expect to see 19 on average.

Edit - I should note that in holdem, there are probably some significant card removal effects at work since you only get to the river about a quarter of the time, and player decisions to get there will affect the frequency of a triplet on the board. I haven't given it much thought to see if there might be an effect that alters the frequency. It's possible that 44/900 is normal. The expected probability of 1/47 is only exactly true if all rivers are seen.

Thanks for the math. Like NooooBingo said, do you have the HHs from when this happened, or was it a pencil and paper type thing?

Couple other questions, though:
1) What advantage is there for them to rig it so obviously like this?
2) If it's happening 22 times as often as it should, why has no one else noticed it before?
And spade to the rescue with better math. So you only saw trips on board twice as often as you'd expect to.

That is also assuming his claim of what he remembers he saw is accurate, and I think we all know historically how accurate that type of data presentation has been.

Since he will never provide actual proof or hand history data, I would agree that the biggest questions if somehow his version of reality was true is what benefit it would be (trips on board are not really action hands) and why would no one else have noticed this by now and why would the sites choose such a blatant way to rig it if that is what they were doing.

It's a rigged theory that does not even make sense in the context of other rigged theories (that can at least pretend that it would make the sites more money or punish good players etc).

Perhaps this is a harbinger of rigged theories to come once spade's immense data is available publicly. More pure made up stuff and variations of ninja nanosuperbots. Could be a vintage year of creativity.

Should be 1/425.

Hi guys, first post. I'm a newbie to the poker scene, only been playing a week or so. I've only been playing on Full Tilt in that time.

Today I had a weird set of hands while playing three tables at once on 0.01/0.02. These examples come from about 200 hands dealt.

Example 1
On Table 1 I was dealt 66, then a second later I was dealt 66 on Table 2. On both tables the flops had two picture cards and a middle card. Very similar.

Example 2
Later, on Table 1 I was dealt QQ and a second later I was dealt JJ on Table 2. On both tables the flop was two picture cards and a middle card. Very similar.

Example 3
Later, on Table 1 I was dealt AKo and a second later I was dealt AKs on Table 2. On both tables the flop was QJ and a middle card. Very similar.

Example 4
Finally, on Table 1 I was dealt 55 and a second later I was dealt 66 on table 2. Both flops were three picture cards.

Is this kind of thing wierd/normal? Is it down to variance? It just makes me think that online poker isn't quite random.

Help a newbie out!

And what happened in the other 196 hands? Nothing you say? Weird...

Well I've never seen these kind of nearly identical hands at the same time (literally a second away from each other)

Just wanted to know if it's normal is all...

Dude your delusional. It's all about trust dude. Your telling me a gaming commission, that is independent from US law, would allow a site to rig a deck for business motives? Or let people access super user abilities? What's wrong with you? Havent you heard of morals and ethics? Your obviously just a bad player....

Thanks, guess I rounded wrong before coffee this morning (to get 1/426).

It's almost certainly normal.

Statistics, and randomness, are, I think, two of the most poorly understood subjects in our society, and it's poorly understood because truly understanding this stuff runs directly contrary to billions of years of evolution.

In short, our brains are hard wired to identify patterns quickly, and rely upon those judgements. If our forebears saw a lion running quickly towards us, they needed to very quickly identify it as a threat, plot a likely path of the lion, and get out of the way... and if they didn't identify this pattern, they'd die pretty quickly. Consequently, the only people alive today are the descendants of people who were good at identifying patterns.

However, this same pattern-finding ability in our brains is what messes things up. Precisely the same thing happens in poker - people see several similar hands in a row, and our natural pattern-finding habit kicks in... but this time, it isn't really there.

This is exacerbated by our mind only remembering those things that are notable.

This is the main problem people have imo

Well said! I have nothing else to say.

If you've only been playing a week or so, I'm sure you haven't seen much of anything. But what exactly is it that you find suspicious in these hands?

Only because they were happening at the same time on two separate tables...just seemed a little far fetched that it happened 4 times in 200 hands.

Perhaps I'm just seeing a pattern that isn't there, as some have pointed out. Who knows? I like a good conspiracy though :P

Superbots is a better conspiracy, because it sounds sexier than a pattern recognition belief at the penny tables.

You are just noticing patterns. Shuffle 4 decks of cards together and deal them out at random and you will see patterns in it as well (then you can decide if you rigged it or not).

Watch this video as well

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98OTs...e=channel_page

Trust that newbie dramatic sarcasm tends to suck. Just stick with posting 60/40 single hands as proof of your beliefs.

That's because you did big complicated sums

Chance of flopping trips =

p(first card is anything in the deck) * p(second card is same rank as first) * p(third card is same rank as first)

= 52/52 * 3/51 * 2/50
= 1/17 * 1/25
= 1/425

'Normal' is a bit of a movable feast where poker hands are concerned.

There are so many hand (hundreds of millions per week) being dealt that someone is going to see some veryweird stuff from time to time.

There's nothing particularly odd about your observed hands, though.

People really should be forced to take a course or two, say "Variance 101" and "Randomness - It's not what you think it is", before being allowed to poast anything about rigged games.

Edit: Oh, and "203 forms of Memory Bias" should probably be included as well.

And your new avatar is severely tilting me out, plz to be change?

Well, I did the same thing, almost.

I used (52*3*2) / (52*51*50)
but then rather than reducing it I just plugged it in the calculator, and rounded wrong either by leaving off a significant figure or by reading the display wrong.

So yeah, I guess I did use big sums after all.

LOL!

I was 2 tabling a few months ago, and got KK on one table, AA on the other. I won a huuuuuuuge pot on both tables (just the blinds with KK, the blinds, a limp, and a raise with AA) and then the next hands were dealt. 22 on the table I had KK on, and...AA on the AA table! And if that's not enough, they were the same suit! Unfortunately, the second go-round I lost 33 big blinds to a short stacker who jammed a 2Q5 flop with AQ, and got another Q on the river! So rigged!

Also, and I don't think this "coincidence" can be overlooked, but the person to my right at the back to back AA table? "AArules"!