Quote:
Originally Posted by bravadomacho
As expected, after posting about Michael Josem of Pokerstars, I am met with a drastic and sudden spike of "variance" on pokerstars random and fair tables. Randomly and fairly of course because they are unable to effect the outcomes, even though there are strong signs signifying otherwise
There is a reason why these sites were shut down by the DOJ
there is also a reason why njdge has delayed issuing pokerstars a license for so long. even after the amaya takeover and supposedly cleaning house of those involved with black friday shady stuff. one thing which might explain some of the delay is waiting for pokerstars to finish reimbursing (or come very close to) those it took responsibilty as part of the post black friday dealings with the USA.
if you ask me the key to unravelling the hand histories is very tricky. you have to look for high %'s of clear tilts both to win % lose. probably easiest to do looking at the flow of the mtt's vs cash games. many of us have clearly seen the tilts and some very ridiculous ones in which players simply could call anything at times an not lose.
its the timing of these tilts and the frequency which make many players very suspicious. some players seem to have a monolopy (or close to it) of winning tilts day in and day out. either way win or lose tilts there r bound to be some imbalance where some accounts have a skewed high % of these occurences naturally. however if those doing whatever audits were to tie into the accounting factors along with the frequency of the tilts - a new pattern might start to emerge clearly. other accounting factors they might want to look at play volume, amount contributed to rake, stakes level, win/loss %, deposit/withdrawals and analyzing the timing. then they might be able to find the factors (or rule out) which may be by whatever means being used to manipulate accounts to win or lose more.
i think the real focus should be looking into the stats and hand histories of the legal US market since it became legal again. in the limited player pools finding evidence of certain accounts clearly being tilted (to win easily) and repeatedly would be far easier if one looks at the mtt's and the story of how those players on winning hot streaks were dealt the cards throughout those tournies. some accounts flop set after set ridiculously in these limited markets. interestingly these seem to be mostly either those who put the most time playing, and contribute more to rake. ie- those most likely to be playing for a living or trying to. (few exceptions aside of course) some of these players arent very good at all they just have super luck day in day out for long stretches. other players have to deal with the ups and downs more often and work much harder to cash.
so here comes the surge of bs from the shills and all the insults and other stupidity as usual. i will say one thing for the shills- sometimes the tilts r just random and nothing more than being the lucky account selected to receive the tilt for the tourney. but some people seem to have all the good luck of all of the Irish combined (too many repeatedly to be just a luck factor variance, and in babysat ways with little skill required)
those who have seen it and experienced it understand. problem for the sites is its a fine line and balance to be had and the way their software rigged or not randomly dishes out the good/bad luck crosses the line for too many players