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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,444 34.94%
No 5,522 56.02%
Undecided 891 9.04%
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Old 08-01-2009, 12:33 PM   #7226
smcdonn2
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
I don't think I expressed any opinion on your sample, other than saying I'd like to see it. Why don't you just export all your flops to an excel or text file (flop cards only) and upload it somewhere, so we can look at it. This needs to be ALL flops in your database, not just ones you were in.
My HH is in text file form, and easy to send but it will include all the pre description and stuff. you know like postion button position, starting chip counts, etc. I dont know how i can get a file without all that stuff in it. I can send that, otherwise tell me how to edit it for flops only text type thing. And I did use all flops in my analysis not just ones i participated in. All flops seen.
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Old 08-01-2009, 12:39 PM   #7227
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

[QUOTE=Pyromantha;12222392]I didn't understand that at all. Can you post it step by step - want to make sure we are doing the same thing.

cash games>>hands>>fliter>>edit>>board texture>>filter by flush cards>>all three one suit

I didnt mess with size of blinds or anything else,i used any for those options
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Old 08-01-2009, 12:41 PM   #7228
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by smcdonn2 View Post

cash games>>hands>>fliter>>edit>>board texture>>filter by flush cards>>all three one suit

I didnt mess with size of blinds or anything else,i used any for those options
Yeah, this is how you find how many hands had a flop which was all the same suit. I get that. How did you find how many flops there were in total?
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Old 08-01-2009, 01:03 PM   #7229
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Pyromantha View Post
Yeah, this is how you find how many hands had a flop which was all the same suit. I get that. How did you find how many flops there were in total?
Thats a great point! I beleive that is where my error is coming from. I need to take

(same suit flop)/(flops seen)

I did

(same suit flop)/(total hands)

I need a count on my flops seen to test it more.
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Old 08-01-2009, 01:06 PM   #7230
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by smcdonn2 View Post
Thats a great point! I beleive that is where my error is coming from. I need to take

(same suit flop)/(flops seen)

I did

(same suit flop)/(total hands)

I need a count on my flops seen to test it more.
You can count the flops as I posted above. In More Filters put 'pot size on bigger than 0 bbs' - if there wasn't a flop the hand gets filtered out, otherwise it's included. There doesn't seem to be any easier way of doing it.
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Old 08-01-2009, 01:18 PM   #7231
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by smcdonn2 View Post
I am a little surprised at the level of discussion in this thread. I spent the last few days working on my final paper for my stats class and found some interesting results...

(yes thats 13 standard deviations from mean)...

and a probabilty of 99.999% to reject the hypothesis that p2 is anywhere near possible

The same suit flop scenerio is an easy one to calculate, but i have many more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcdonn2 View Post
Instead of bashing why not try to explain the fact that my hh was 13 sd off of the mean
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcdonn2 View Post
Can you come up with something better than accusing of making things up?
Quote:
Originally Posted by smcdonn2 View Post
Thats a great point! I beleive that is where my error is coming from. I need to take

(same suit flop)/(flops seen)

I did

(same suit flop)/(total hands)

I need a count on my flops seen to test it more.
Classic
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Old 08-01-2009, 01:44 PM   #7232
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by smcdonn2 View Post
I need a count on my flops seen to test it more.
To test it more? Don't you mean, to correct your huge mistake that you used to justify saying something was wrong with the deal? It happens, but just own up to it.

Last edited by spadebidder; 08-01-2009 at 02:06 PM.
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Old 08-01-2009, 05:02 PM   #7233
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Angry Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
To test it more? Don't you mean, to correct your huge mistake that you used to justify saying something was wrong with the deal? It happens, but just own up to it.
Don't you belong to a poker site/forum that produces and promotes illegal AI programs for poker sites?
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Old 08-01-2009, 05:10 PM   #7234
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

How would it be relevant to smcdonn2's statistics being right or wrong if he was?
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Old 08-01-2009, 05:13 PM   #7235
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

It would be relevent as to why Spade is posting here...
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Old 08-01-2009, 05:32 PM   #7236
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Don't you belong to a poker site/forum that produces and promotes illegal AI programs for poker sites?
No. The folks that run that site also run pokerftp.com which provides a database of hands for statistical research, which I use. You know very well that I participate in that, as do some other posters on this thread, and that is well documented on these forums. I was around here well before that even became available by announcement on 2+2, which was the first time I ever heard of it. You will not find a single post or mention of my name anywhere on the site you speak of, unless it is somehow related to my downloading of their database. If you wish, you can email the administrators of that site and ask them if I have ever participated in any way. I have not.

The person who runs both sites is IndianaV8 on 2+2.

Last edited by spadebidder; 08-01-2009 at 06:00 PM.
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Old 08-02-2009, 03:07 AM   #7237
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Have not posted in a while because it is kind of getting stale, with too many gimmick accounts and bad beat whiners. Not a lot of new, exciting theories for the riggedologist movement the past few weeks.

Still, may as well toss in a simple question or two about this one since it seems to require a ton of rigged theories to pull off, many of which contradict themselves.


OK, so you are deep in the money, so clearly it was not rigged against you to prevent you from making the money (a common rigged theory)???

No. Its not against you making the money 'All' the time. If it's rigging was that obvious then it would be too easy for intelligent people like yourself, and spade to detect.

I'll go ahead and address another question that I can tell by your other questioning your gonna ask. BTW, thanks for responding in a civil manner.

Why do they care when they have already collected your rake???

Simple. numbers. numbers. numbers. You have to look at from the big picture. Just like poker, over the long run of micromanagement and BRM immense gains surface. At least that what Stars would have you to believe when they sling you the ringers and know damn well the outcome of the hand'(s) dealt. What does that accomplish? It helps their roll at the detriment of YOUR roll over the long haul.

How many thousands are coming and going and coming again. They know many will just slam some **** around the room, take 5 and register in something else.




You suffered a few beats before this hand yet were still in it which means you had the higher stack at the time. Most riggedologists believe the software is rigged to help the hher stack so it was not in that case I suppose??


You're not getting the point. It's not all rigged all the time. The point is it can ADAPT. PERIOD. And that is the KEY to unlocking the secrets. What makes it go into this mode of 'holocaust.' lol. I know a lot of you guys play quite a bit and I can assure you I have done nothing but play Stars mtt's 8 mo straight, sometimes 12 to 24 hrs per day.The smoke is there, I just wanna see if there is any fire to go along with it. I'm not busto and have nothing to do other than play and try to get better, while collecting data.

Observing the tone of flops and how many times you got a 4 in 20k hands isn't gonna prove ****. Hell no. Though it may give us signs of something to work with.



Now you get AA and lose to QQ and assume that is because it was rigged against you. Is that because now you are the smaller stack? If so why did you not win when you were the bigger stacks before. Do you think the QQ opponent played badly (ie: rigged for bad players)? Which rigged theory applies here???


You can't think about it such black and white. The point is it adapted to the situation and I was given a fully loaded pistol to play RR with. My playing style doesn't rely heavily on a big stack, a reload in this situation meant I was at least gonna survive another half of the field. You can't tell me what Ive felt and witnessed in these situations over thousands of mtt hands.



Or, do you simply believe that any time you do not win a MTT that it is because it is all rigged against YOU in some masterful scheme? Why are YOU that important for them to set up these elaborate methods of letting you cash but not win? What is their motivation for doing this to YOU? How many of the participants in the tournament are also secretly being manipulated in this way, or is it just YOU???


No it's not only me. I'm sure you've been victim more times than you realize. And maybe' certain playing styles are more prone to run into the situations I've mentioned. If you're a bluffing god and Phil Ivey is your mentor and you have a 300k stack every tourney, then maybe you sidestep some of what goes on. Your just that good, dude. We could also employ the theory of maybe low stakes is where this predominantly happening. Though I highly doubt that. I would say many are being manipulated, I would compare it to the frequency at which a car is stolen in the US.



Basically I am wondering what rigged theory you are even proposing exists here. Is the world out to get YOU? That seems the only one that may apply, but all that means is you are paranoid - yawn???

Yawn back at ya. Some of us think there is a problem. Please quit the sad 'life rig' excuse.




Or are you just whining about a bad beat? There is a forum for people who want to do that though no one will really care about your very routine, unspectacular bad beat of a 4-1 spot when you had about 3 blinds left. Also, that K guy already has the monopoly on pointless whining in this thread so you are not even charting new territory if that is your goal???



Very routine. haha. Lets go flip my AA against your QQ for 1000 times, for one thousand dollars, and then we will see how routine it works for ya. And you can also pay for all the times in which this routine happens when I should have been doubling up moving the board. You're sorta right. It is routine in a stars mtt when they want YOU GONE.



Note, I am not even asking you to prove anything (as you can not and proof is not what matters to guys like you). All I am asking is what are you even suggesting is in place against you here? What rigged theories are at work?

All the best.

Thanks, dude. For your info I do have proof, or at least enough data to prove it to one way or the other to myself. I guess that's all that really matters. Also, I got warned so I guess I'll get back this fall when I get some of this sorted out. I wont post HH here anymore.
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Old 08-02-2009, 03:24 AM   #7238
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

So, it is rigged or not?
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Old 08-02-2009, 04:55 AM   #7239
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Not.

Probably.
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Old 08-02-2009, 05:01 AM   #7240
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Those that actually play online poker are fairly certain it is rigged.
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Old 08-02-2009, 06:17 AM   #7241
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

I play online poker and am not certain that it is rigged, and all the evidence I have seen leads me to believe it is not rigged.
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Old 08-02-2009, 06:54 AM   #7242
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

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Originally Posted by theb00radley View Post
Practice and a commitment to improving does not guarantee results. I've been playing and working on my game for 2 years now but success still eludes me. I consider myself to have a good analytical mind and will usually achieve some measure of success at whatever I apply myself to, but it's just not happening in poker. I understand how people focus on their bad beats and don't remember the suckouts, but after constant analysis of my game i'm pretty sure my luck has not come close to evening out in those 2 years and 100,000+ hands.

I understand how the OP feels, but rather than believing the game is rigged I just believe that even over the long term luck does not even out, and some people are just luckier than others.
Spot on.
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Old 08-02-2009, 07:45 AM   #7243
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by BlisterXists View Post
Thanks, dude. For your info I do have proof, or at least enough data to prove it to one way or the other to myself. I guess that's all that really matters. Also, I got warned so I guess I'll get back this fall when I get some of this sorted out. I wont post HH here anymore.
You can absolutely believe whatever you choose to believe. You can believe the tooth fairy is the one responsible for all the bad things that happen to you in the world if that satisfies some need of yours.

I am a big believer that anyone can believe anything they wish, regardless of how detached from reality their beliefs happen to be. I only pointed out your very odd, inconsistent rigged beliefs because they followed no structure whatsoever which is quite rare for a riggedologist.

Even the most "out there" riggedologists whether it be timing, entropy or mafia theories at least have a consistency to their beliefs. If the mafia was in control they always were in control. Doomswitches were always doomswitches.

They could never prove anything (that goes without saying), but at least their beliefs followed a pattern that they could at least try to explain explain.

Your rigged beliefs do not even do that. You win as a short stack, lose as a short stack, win as a bigger stack, lose as a bigger stack, make the cash (thus making the tourney go longer).

Basically, all of your play goes against many of the conventional riggedologist beliefs, and even if once in a while they do fall into it, they are contradicted by an opposite event earlier in the same tournament (which I would have to assume is a micro/freeroll as that is where most riggedologists exist).

You did not even try to explain what your rigged theories are because you are literally one of the only riggedologists that cannot even do that. You say you have proof (which of course you will not provide), but proof of what exactly? Most riggedologists will never answer why the world is rigged against them, but at least they have a belief about how. You do not even seem to have that.

Note, I am not even asking to see your magical proof, I am just curious what forces you think are at work here?

It just seems like all your theory is is "I did not win in a MTT so it must be rigged." Even hard core riggedologists would be annoyed by that theory. You can do better.

All the best.
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Old 08-02-2009, 07:53 AM   #7244
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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I understand how the OP feels, but rather than believing the game is rigged I just believe that even over the long term luck does not even out, and some people are just luckier than others.
This is a true statement, not by belief but by laws of probability. The belief that "luck evens out" is false, and is not equivalent to saying that outcomes will approach the mean in the long run. Let's say you play a coin flip game betting on heads. You have a very lucky run and after 100 flips you have hit 75 heads. According to the binomial this will happen 1/43000 times the game is played to 100 flips. So you had a lucky run and you are 50 flips ahead of the opponent. Thereafter, there is no reason it will ever be evened out no matter how many more games you play. Your expectation for future games is 50/50 and your expectation is that you will forever be ahead by that 50 flips. The concept of regression to the mean just applies to proportion, not absolute numbers, meaning that the 50 flip lead will become a smaller and smaller part of the total as the trials get larger, thus your proportion is expected to get closer and closer to 50%. But your will never "make up" or "even out" that early winning streak, your expectation is that it puts you ahead forever. Likewise, your opponent is not expected to ever "catch up", he is expected to be behind by 50 flips forever (keep in mind this is a 50/50 game, poker is not). Luck does not even out.

On the other hand, poker is only partially a game of luck, and the luck factor can be exceeded by skillful play.

Last edited by spadebidder; 08-02-2009 at 08:00 AM.
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Old 08-02-2009, 12:53 PM   #7245
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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I play online poker and am not certain that it is rigged, and all the evidence I have seen leads me to believe it is not rigged.
what evidence?
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Old 08-02-2009, 01:33 PM   #7246
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

3 outer is almost a coinflip online
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Old 08-02-2009, 01:58 PM   #7247
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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what evidence?
Just because you ignore anything anyone says that goes against your beliefs doesn't mean it hasn't been said.
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Old 08-02-2009, 03:11 PM   #7248
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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No. The folks that run that site also run pokerftp.com which provides a database of hands for statistical research, which I use. You know very well that I participate in that, as do some other posters on this thread, and that is well documented on these forums. I was around here well before that even became available by announcement on 2+2, which was the first time I ever heard of it. You will not find a single post or mention of my name anywhere on the site you speak of, unless it is somehow related to my downloading of their database. If you wish, you can email the administrators of that site and ask them if I have ever participated in any way. I have not.

The person who runs both sites is IndianaV8 on 2+2.
No doubt, Why is he allowed to have an account on Twoplustwo...I'm not talking about the DB site....you know which one i'm speaking of...
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Old 08-02-2009, 04:04 PM   #7249
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Just my two cents:
I live poker were as loose as normally online play is, there would be a similar amount of frustration among its players.
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Old 08-02-2009, 04:28 PM   #7250
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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3 outer is almost a coinflip online
Easily proven or disproven yet you choose not to bother. Enjoy wallowing in your denial and misery.
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