Obvious shill for Magic Online and the avatar proves it.
Nah I'm just kidding, will be interesting to see the stats if someone does this analysis.

Low enough to call BS on anyone who clains it's happened.

It turns out that the OP had played for much more than 2 days at the site (he PM'ed me and told me he had been there for two years). It is still relatively unlikely unless he plays 5k hands a day, but probably not astronomical.

One day a riggedologist will post a statistic that isn't cherry-picked, but not today..

I ran pretty good from day 1 of playing Poker online, and I felt relatively invincible when I cashed out. I built $30 into $2,300, and my cashout left me with $1,300. I was playing $25 nl full ring, so I was well rolled for the stakes. The dip in my roll had no effect on my playing.

I began playing poorly after a few weeks of epic runbad. It wasn't the size of my roll that made me tilt, it was consistently losing 80/20 races.

LOL.

The day the sun rises in the West here I'll be scanning the posts.

I believe you in what you say with regard to the timing of these events, though the odds are significant that they are completely unrelated events.



It likely is a bad run of variance, and the few who have offered hand histories have been shown that the results are generally within 2 SD and often times 1 SD from expected.

Good chance you started playing well below your A game once you hit a bad stretch of luck and this contributed further to the problem. You even say so later that you tilted a bit. This is not too unusual in that situation.

Technically they are possible, but they are extremely impractical to do as there is no real gain, there is a huge risk to the business if caught, and there are plenty of people who have cashed out a lot without experiencing any sort of curse.

If it was not a cash out, it would be something else if you use this mind set. Losing after a big tourney score. Losing after clearing a bonus. Losing after your birthday.

By picking an unrelated event you are removing some of the responsibility from yourself which may make you feel better, but you also avoid analyzing the factors which may have actually helped cause the downswing.


You pretty much identified the problem with your multiple references to how you tilted. Next time you experience the start of a downturn, just focus on that and see if the results differ, Remove cashouts or other things from the equation.

Otherwise if you think cashing out will cause problems then never cash out or do not play, because believing in those curses will mean you never play your A game anyway.

Good open debate, although im far from a riggedologist, but the gameplay does seem to vary between sites.

I play around 500 - 1000 hands per weekend maximum, so you can imagine why I became a little suspicious of 3 RF's in 2 days.

I wasnt counting the number of other good hands on top of that - rigged or not, the programming obviously differs from app to app and the randomness has to be questionable at least?

Right, I'm sure it's very unlikely, but the point is that there is a big difference between the two situations where

a) you play for 2 days and hit 3 royal flushes, and
b) you play for 2 years and there is a 2 day period somewhere in there where you hit 3 royal flushes.

The second is going to be several hundred times more likely than the first.

How I react to tilt has absolutely nothing to do with the statistics. I simply mentioned the tilt because I am trying to be honest about the different factors that have influenced my swong.

The simple fact is that I cashed out and immediately experienced significant negative variance. This is a fact. I have the graphs to prove it. I have the HH to prove it.

I agree, this alone doesn't mean they are related. But there were repeated requests for HH to analyze. I offered mine up simply because I experienced a similar pattern. If you reread my post you will see that I am not asserting that the two are related. I am simply saying that my experience has followed the patterns described.

I have to be honest, your response kind of annoyed me. You are belittling me and accusing me of superstitions that I do not possess. You took chunks out of my post and straw-manned each one.

Hardly. If I thought you were a full blown riggedologist my reply would have been considerably different. You are not a paranoid nut case like many of them, you are a normal person experiencing normal reactions to a routine downswing, however some of those reactions are not helpful if you want to actually do something about your situation.


You are saying the pattern is related.



Cool. Never cash out any more in future.

Problem solved.

Well another alternative is if you believe in a cashout curse then instead of cashing out a portion of your roll, cash out all of it then deposit the amount you intended to keep playing with on a different site, and play there. Plenty of people believe additionally that depositing on a new site leads to good results so you get the best of both worlds.

Not that I think there is anything to the cashout curse theories at all, but this tactic may have psychological benefits which do lead to better results - a placebo effect if you will.

hmhm of course, as the number of hands played increases 104 fold (based on 2 years).

This hand is one that everyone remembers hitting at some point in their life, and I hit 2 last year, with 3 the year before - all on this one site.

I understand that online gaming means a much quicker game and therefore more hands played, but this discussion in itself is proof that I need to change sites, if only for my own sanity

Thanks for the replies

But there are several problems:

a) It sounds like you only have one data-point to analyze. You cashed out once, and ran badly after that. To do any statistical analysis of whether cashing out and running badly are correlated we would need many cashouts and many sets of subsequent data.

b) Unless we are talking only about running badly in 'all-in' situations it is very hard to analyse anything, as there are pyschological reasons why you might play worse.

Change sites if you want; don't say that the site is rigged. Big difference!

a) From my first post: "I doubt my experience alone settles anything one way or another, but at least it will be a set of data that can be analyzed rather than a bunch of random verbal pissing matches."

Obviously a lot of people's data would be needed to perform a real analysis. I simply offered mine.

b) Totally agree. As I said in my first post "Within about 30,000 hands, on all-in hands alone, I dropped around 16 BI in equity"

Anyway, this is devolving into typical forum jousting. I am not arguing that anything is rigged. I am simply saying my HH seems to follow patterns people described. I am offering my HH for analysis. End of story.

If anybody actually wants to analyze the HH, PM me. I don't really have anything else to contribute to this thread.

50/50
it happens or it doesn't

QFF

hardgeus, if you don't have HM u can download trial version and import your hands. u can check your all-in EV before cashout and after. maybe you just hit downswings after cashout and affected by tilt started to play more spewy than before or maybe u just started to run bad and that can be confirmed by HM graphs.

lemme get this straight, you're quitting the site because you're getting too many royal flushes?

I wouldn't have posted any of this if I hadn't done *some* analysis on my hands

I have used Hold 'em Luck and the EV graphs. There's no question whatsoever that I hit negative variance.

LOL I know but thats the tip of my bad beat iceberg.

On one hand they giveth etc etc... I was thinking that its all about getting rake up, im not suggesting its rigged but merely asking for other opinions on my rather blurred view of it today.

Ive seen AA vs KK vs QQ 3 hands in a row on 2 occassions in the last week also (I usually get the K's lol). Yeah it happens but if im doubting its time to switch sites whilst im up on what has otherwise been a downward spiral.

Ive googled more about the site and my mind is made up after reading some right stories.

Good intro to the forum either way, wish id found it sooner - cheers everyone and apologies for the really crap title / thread...

Play a 45 man turbo and you get qq,kk,aa, ak, all the time in less than 50 hands, meanwhile you play a big mtt with slow structure, you'll be lucky to get 77's in 100 hands.

I'm sure it evens out in the end.

For all you idiots who believe in the cashout curse please take the time to think about something:

Let's say you are up a certain amount, let's say $300 on the day deeply stacked at one table. You then get sucked out AA v QQ and even up breaking even. How do you feel?

Now let's say you're down $300 on the day at one table with $100 in front of you. You get AIPF with vs. JJ, TT and AQ holding KK and win, breaking even for the day. How do you feel?

DUCY?

ban