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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,444 34.94%
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:23 AM   #6826
Pyromantha
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
FWIW I have about 140,000 or so hand history where I was running at or near expectation for the first 90,000 or so hands, with an immediate and rapid drop following my first cashout.
Obvious shill for Magic Online and the avatar proves it.
Nah I'm just kidding, will be interesting to see the stats if someone does this analysis.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:24 AM   #6827
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

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Originally Posted by The_Wizard View Post
What are the odds of hitting a Royal Flush 3 times in 2 days on a well-publicised internet poker site?
Low enough to call BS on anyone who clains it's happened.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:25 AM   #6828
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

It turns out that the OP had played for much more than 2 days at the site (he PM'ed me and told me he had been there for two years). It is still relatively unlikely unless he plays 5k hands a day, but probably not astronomical.

One day a riggedologist will post a statistic that isn't cherry-picked, but not today..
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:25 AM   #6829
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Arouet View Post
Question for those who think they suffer from a cashout curse: do you think cashing out affects your play at all? Ie: seeing a lower balance in your account may tilt you somewhat to try and "get back" to your previous amount?
I ran pretty good from day 1 of playing Poker online, and I felt relatively invincible when I cashed out. I built $30 into $2,300, and my cashout left me with $1,300. I was playing $25 nl full ring, so I was well rolled for the stakes. The dip in my roll had no effect on my playing.

I began playing poorly after a few weeks of epic runbad. It wasn't the size of my roll that made me tilt, it was consistently losing 80/20 races.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:28 AM   #6830
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

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Originally Posted by Pyromantha View Post
One day a riggedologist will post a statistic that isn't cherry-picked, but not today..
LOL.

The day the sun rises in the West here I'll be scanning the posts.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:31 AM   #6831
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
FWIW I have about 140,000 or so hand history where I was running at or near expectation for the first 90,000 or so hands, with an immediate and rapid drop following my first cashout.
I believe you in what you say with regard to the timing of these events, though the odds are significant that they are completely unrelated events.



Quote:
Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
Within about 30,000 hands, on all-in hands alone, I dropped around 16 BI in equity. In addition I started running KK into AA many times (twice in one session IIRC). Obviously that aspect is quite a bit more subjective.

I have been told alternately a) This happens and is just variance
It likely is a bad run of variance, and the few who have offered hand histories have been shown that the results are generally within 2 SD and often times 1 SD from expected.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
b) I just suck and tilt.
Good chance you started playing well below your A game once you hit a bad stretch of luck and this contributed further to the problem. You even say so later that you tilted a bit. This is not too unusual in that situation.

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Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
c) The things I am describing are impossible.
Technically they are possible, but they are extremely impractical to do as there is no real gain, there is a huge risk to the business if caught, and there are plenty of people who have cashed out a lot without experiencing any sort of curse.

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Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
Tilt has definitely been a factor in my current swong, and I definitely started making some serious mistakes, but I think it is safe to say my experience in online Poker following my cashout has been markedly different than my experience prior to cashout.
If it was not a cash out, it would be something else if you use this mind set. Losing after a big tourney score. Losing after clearing a bonus. Losing after your birthday.

By picking an unrelated event you are removing some of the responsibility from yourself which may make you feel better, but you also avoid analyzing the factors which may have actually helped cause the downswing.


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Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
All I can say is that I have had an experience that at a glance seems to be in line with the "cashout curse," and I'm willing to submit my HH and documentation of when my cashout occurred. I doubt my experience alone settles anything one way or another, but at least it will be a set of data that can be analyzed rather than a bunch of random verbal pissing matches.

Finally, I don't want this post used as a straw man to prove that I'm some nut on a crusade to prove online Poker is rigged. Like I said, I know how easy it is to delude yourself so I don't really have an opinion. However, the whole UB thing wouldn't have come to light without the players themselves keeping an eye on the stats. I don't think it would be such a bad idea to do some grinding.
You pretty much identified the problem with your multiple references to how you tilted. Next time you experience the start of a downturn, just focus on that and see if the results differ, Remove cashouts or other things from the equation.

Otherwise if you think cashing out will cause problems then never cash out or do not play, because believing in those curses will mean you never play your A game anyway.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:34 AM   #6832
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

Good open debate, although im far from a riggedologist, but the gameplay does seem to vary between sites.

I play around 500 - 1000 hands per weekend maximum, so you can imagine why I became a little suspicious of 3 RF's in 2 days.

I wasnt counting the number of other good hands on top of that - rigged or not, the programming obviously differs from app to app and the randomness has to be questionable at least?

Last edited by The_Wizard; 07-14-2009 at 10:35 AM. Reason: same ol'
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:46 AM   #6833
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

Right, I'm sure it's very unlikely, but the point is that there is a big difference between the two situations where

a) you play for 2 days and hit 3 royal flushes, and
b) you play for 2 years and there is a 2 day period somewhere in there where you hit 3 royal flushes.

The second is going to be several hundred times more likely than the first.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:49 AM   #6834
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
You pretty much identified the problem with your multiple references to how you tilted. Next time you experience the start of a downturn, just focus on that and see if the results differ, Remove cashouts or other things from the equation.
How I react to tilt has absolutely nothing to do with the statistics. I simply mentioned the tilt because I am trying to be honest about the different factors that have influenced my swong.

The simple fact is that I cashed out and immediately experienced significant negative variance. This is a fact. I have the graphs to prove it. I have the HH to prove it.

I agree, this alone doesn't mean they are related. But there were repeated requests for HH to analyze. I offered mine up simply because I experienced a similar pattern. If you reread my post you will see that I am not asserting that the two are related. I am simply saying that my experience has followed the patterns described.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:51 AM   #6835
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Otherwise if you think cashing out will cause problems then never cash out or do not play, because believing in those curses will mean you never play your A game anyway.
I have to be honest, your response kind of annoyed me. You are belittling me and accusing me of superstitions that I do not possess. You took chunks out of my post and straw-manned each one.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:52 AM   #6836
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
I have to be honest, your response kind of annoyed me. You are belittling me and accusing me of superstitions that I do not possess. You took chunks out of my post and straw-manned each one.
Hardly. If I thought you were a full blown riggedologist my reply would have been considerably different. You are not a paranoid nut case like many of them, you are a normal person experiencing normal reactions to a routine downswing, however some of those reactions are not helpful if you want to actually do something about your situation.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
I agree, this alone doesn't mean they are related. But there were repeated requests for HH to analyze. I offered mine up simply because I experienced a similar pattern. If you reread my post you will see that I am not asserting that the two are related. I am simply saying that my experience has followed the patterns described.
You are saying the pattern is related.



Quote:
Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
How I react to tilt has absolutely nothing to do with the statistics. I simply mentioned the tilt because I am trying to be honest about the different factors that have influenced my swong.

The simple fact is that I cashed out and immediately experienced significant negative variance. This is a fact. I have the graphs to prove it. I have the HH to prove it.
Cool. Never cash out any more in future.

Problem solved.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:53 AM   #6837
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Otherwise if you think cashing out will cause problems then never cash out or do not play, because believing in those curses will mean you never play your A game anyway.
Well another alternative is if you believe in a cashout curse then instead of cashing out a portion of your roll, cash out all of it then deposit the amount you intended to keep playing with on a different site, and play there. Plenty of people believe additionally that depositing on a new site leads to good results so you get the best of both worlds.

Not that I think there is anything to the cashout curse theories at all, but this tactic may have psychological benefits which do lead to better results - a placebo effect if you will.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:53 AM   #6838
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

hmhm of course, as the number of hands played increases 104 fold (based on 2 years).

This hand is one that everyone remembers hitting at some point in their life, and I hit 2 last year, with 3 the year before - all on this one site.

I understand that online gaming means a much quicker game and therefore more hands played, but this discussion in itself is proof that I need to change sites, if only for my own sanity

Thanks for the replies
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:58 AM   #6839
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by hardgeus View Post
The simple fact is that I cashed out and immediately experienced significant negative variance. This is a fact. I have the graphs to prove it. I have the HH to prove it.

I agree, this alone doesn't mean they are related. But there were repeated requests for HH to analyze.
But there are several problems:

a) It sounds like you only have one data-point to analyze. You cashed out once, and ran badly after that. To do any statistical analysis of whether cashing out and running badly are correlated we would need many cashouts and many sets of subsequent data.

b) Unless we are talking only about running badly in 'all-in' situations it is very hard to analyse anything, as there are pyschological reasons why you might play worse.
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Old 07-14-2009, 11:02 AM   #6840
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

Change sites if you want; don't say that the site is rigged. Big difference!
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Old 07-14-2009, 11:05 AM   #6841
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Pyromantha View Post
But there are several problems:

a) It sounds like you only have one data-point to analyze. You cashed out once, and ran badly after that. To do any statistical analysis of whether cashing out and running badly are correlated we would need many cashouts and many sets of subsequent data.

b) Unless we are talking only about running badly in 'all-in' situations it is very hard to analyse anything, as there are pyschological reasons why you might play worse.
a) From my first post: "I doubt my experience alone settles anything one way or another, but at least it will be a set of data that can be analyzed rather than a bunch of random verbal pissing matches."

Obviously a lot of people's data would be needed to perform a real analysis. I simply offered mine.

b) Totally agree. As I said in my first post "Within about 30,000 hands, on all-in hands alone, I dropped around 16 BI in equity"

Anyway, this is devolving into typical forum jousting. I am not arguing that anything is rigged. I am simply saying my HH seems to follow patterns people described. I am offering my HH for analysis. End of story.

If anybody actually wants to analyze the HH, PM me. I don't really have anything else to contribute to this thread.
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Old 07-14-2009, 11:05 AM   #6842
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

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Originally Posted by The_Wizard View Post
What are the odds of hitting a Royal Flush 3 times in 2 days on a well-publicised internet poker site?
50/50
it happens or it doesn't
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Old 07-14-2009, 11:22 AM   #6843
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

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50/50
it happens or it doesn't
QFF
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Old 07-14-2009, 11:24 AM   #6844
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

hardgeus, if you don't have HM u can download trial version and import your hands. u can check your all-in EV before cashout and after. maybe you just hit downswings after cashout and affected by tilt started to play more spewy than before or maybe u just started to run bad and that can be confirmed by HM graphs.
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Old 07-14-2009, 11:26 AM   #6845
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

lemme get this straight, you're quitting the site because you're getting too many royal flushes?
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Old 07-14-2009, 11:28 AM   #6846
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by lenasrokas View Post
hardgeus, if you don't have HM u can download trial version and import your hands. u can check your all-in EV before cashout and after. maybe you just hit downswings after cashout and affected by tilt started to play more spewy than before or maybe u just started to run bad and that can be confirmed by HM graphs.
I wouldn't have posted any of this if I hadn't done *some* analysis on my hands

I have used Hold 'em Luck and the EV graphs. There's no question whatsoever that I hit negative variance.
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Old 07-14-2009, 12:08 PM   #6847
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Re: What are the odds... (Royal Flush)

LOL I know but thats the tip of my bad beat iceberg.

On one hand they giveth etc etc... I was thinking that its all about getting rake up, im not suggesting its rigged but merely asking for other opinions on my rather blurred view of it today.

Ive seen AA vs KK vs QQ 3 hands in a row on 2 occassions in the last week also (I usually get the K's lol). Yeah it happens but if im doubting its time to switch sites whilst im up on what has otherwise been a downward spiral.

Ive googled more about the site and my mind is made up after reading some right stories.

Good intro to the forum either way, wish id found it sooner - cheers everyone and apologies for the really crap title / thread...

Last edited by The_Wizard; 07-14-2009 at 12:12 PM. Reason: edit
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Old 07-14-2009, 01:24 PM   #6848
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Play a 45 man turbo and you get qq,kk,aa, ak, all the time in less than 50 hands, meanwhile you play a big mtt with slow structure, you'll be lucky to get 77's in 100 hands.

I'm sure it evens out in the end.
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Old 07-14-2009, 02:21 PM   #6849
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

For all you idiots who believe in the cashout curse please take the time to think about something:

Let's say you are up a certain amount, let's say $300 on the day deeply stacked at one table. You then get sucked out AA v QQ and even up breaking even. How do you feel?

Now let's say you're down $300 on the day at one table with $100 in front of you. You get AIPF with vs. JJ, TT and AQ holding KK and win, breaking even for the day. How do you feel?

DUCY?
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Old 07-14-2009, 03:39 PM   #6850
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by K13 View Post
Play a 45 man turbo and you get qq,kk,aa, ak, all the time in less than 50 hands, meanwhile you play a big mtt with slow structure, you'll be lucky to get 77's in 100 hands.

I'm sure it evens out in the end.
ban
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