are you really this upset over $44 ? Am I missing something here? It's not worth it man, let it go....

You owe me $1000 for reading your repetitious whining.

If by 'address' everyone's points you mean to post yet more walls of text crying about how you got sucked out on in this hand or that, or you lost more money by butchering another hand, don't bother.

You need to find another game. You don't have the mental aspects that are necessary for this one.

At least move to another site.

Thanks laurents, you seems nice guy, but must say I already red this book (and many others) "long time ago" and Im not struggeling with any particular problem. I just saw a graph and some arguments in two posts which I found interesting so I asked few very simple narrow "innocent" questions and it seems it is impossible to get any concrete answers without blur and fog thrown at me by some guys fighting their own inside wars, complety out of point. Im writting now 3hd time already, so please again, I would just like to get a straightforward clear simple answers from point of view and experience of any winning poker players on simple questions I asked in last post, or just ignore it.

And if you already mentioned that book, and if you studied it carefuly you should see that by the book theory is suggesting that 500K hands of downswing is veee...eery unlikely to happen (but sure not impossible) and here at forum was said more in a way that those kind of "unhappy" stretches are quite usual so more likley to occur and thats really the whole point - "problem". I just found this interesting, so Im writting again in hope to get a straightforward clear answers (opinion) from point of view and experience of any winning poker players on this subject.

Nah I like the gane. When I'm winning.

Anyway I just won 3 buyins back so I'm back above 888's $100 cash game winnings threshold. Plan is now to withdraw bankroll and move it to Stars so they can't screw me again. Will leave a small amount on 888 for the next couple of weeks though because it takes ages to withdraw money.

This hand is played terribly. No wonder you ****ing lose.

[x] Money in as 87% favourite
[ ] Played terribly

Who decides you're an 87% favorite anyway? Isn't that just one guy's opinion? You should have bet more preflop when you knew you had the best hand.

One would think you might consider folding turn also, but I suppose that's not in a calling station's vocabulary.

100% a level. Equity is a matter of maths not opinion.

Just like standard deviations? Oh, wait..

Not everyone might like my tone everytime I post, but noone can deny that I can accurately predict the behaviour of dumb annoying bitches.

Look son, everyone with a brain knows that you are not the brightest bulb at the christmas tree, but can you point out what you think is a contradiction in my post? I sicerely believe that you do not get simple maths, but it's still correct and accepted by like every non-idiot in the world. You are on the way to another Nobel Prize? Please share.

Don't worry about my mental health, I am in therapy. I recommended that poker mindset book to you because I had hope. The one guy with the anamolly and the guy with his IQ in his name are pretty much nothing than hopeless attention whores and deserve to be treated as such.

Standard deviation is basically opinion since not all information is known.

In the case of AA, you just compare it to all possible hands preflop and you know you're the favourite no matter what.

Standard deviation is just a random formula invented to tell us what the guy who invented the formula thinks is a reasonable distribution of results. No, I don't have a PhD in statistics and work with numbers all day, but then again I'm guessing not many people in this forum do either. Common sense tells us though that anyone can write a formula and say this shows what is reasonable. Why is that specific formula correct? Why couldn't we use a different one? We could, evidently. It's just become convention to use standard deviation instead.

It's clearly nothing at all like equity calculations, where all possible outcomes are known in advance and can be calculated.

It's been proven mathematically you ****ing dunce.

Well played Sir, well played..

fyp. A broken longplayer actually is a source of inspiration and wisdom compared to you.

That is just like, your opinion, man..

You mad bro?

unpossible

PokerPlayerWithHisIQ,

I mean it's no biggie that you do not understand the maths behind variance and standard deviation (noone here is surprised anyway), but at least have the decency to either look things up or keep your mouth shut about things you have no clue of. Remember that you discuss with adults here.

*shaking head in disbelief*

Mixer, I play for a living and post here sometimes. I don't get as annoyed as some other posters here probably because I post far less frequently and thus don't have to deal with much of the nonsense that they try valiantly to clear up over and over again.

My answers to your questions. Without any math--if you are seeing such a downswing, then it is possible. Not necessarily likely, but possible and likely means nothing. Why? Because there are a ton of players out there playing a ton of hands, and some of these players will experience this and sad as this may seem to you, you are apparently one of them. That's it.

Is it possible that some or many of the successful live players, especially tourney players (greater swings) are huge luckballs? Yes. Period. I've heard it said that it is possible that a lifetime is not enough to be sure what the actual ev is of a live MTT player. Too much variance, not enough hands. Maybe some of the greats were just on the good side of a huge variance swing. How to tell? One way is to look at cash game results for the same player and online results if they play there as well. Also read what they've written, if anything, on strategy or anything poker related and make your own judgement.

Practical advice? If you're running this badly, variance is NOT the only explanation. The games are tougher and you have to improve steadily just to keep up. Having been a winner 5 years ago says nothing about whether you are one today (or very little). I had a good friend who was better than I was 5 or 6 years ago who went from a 120k winner one year, to 65k the next to breakeven to minus 70k. He then quit. Never complained about rigging or luck, but simply admitted the game was too tough for him because he wasn't willing to put in the work to keep up or keep ahead. And that is what it is, HARD WORK. I work on my game nearly every single day. My strategies and tactics have evolved enough so that I am in many ways a very different player than I was three years ago and wildly different than at any time further back.

Get away from this thread; find a home in an appropriate strategy thread and discuss hands there; listen to players who have results you would like to emulate (not losers whining or complaining of rigs, luck, bad beats, etc.); watch videos from established winners at your game; and determine whether you can still beat the game. If not, quit or do it as a pastime; if yes, get on with it.

To your last question. It's unanswerable as it stands. Which game/s? What buyins/stakes? How good are you truly relative to the game today? How much do you need to make monthly to get by/be happy (depending on where you live/family status/etc.)? And so on. The real question is: Are you willing and able to do the HARD WORK it takes to be a truly successful poker player and are you psychologically able to handle the swings that are a part of it. This thread is full of people who cannot answer yes to both questions and seeing a rig is their way of dealing with that.

That's it. Practical and no anger or sarcasm. Can you do the above? If yes, you'll do fine. If no, I expect to see you trolling youtube poker videos in the near future claiming it's all rigged.

Standard deviation is not a "random formula". It is the square root of variance.

It it used along to calculate the probability that an event can occur by chance alone, given a particular statistical distribution of variables.

Statistical formulae aren't just randomly plucked out of the air. They're derived from basic mathematical principles. They're used because they're proven to be correct.

Your argument is a bit like saying "Oh, well mathematcians say that the circumference of a circle is pi x its diameter. But anyone can pick a random formula and say it's right. We only use that by convention."

It's beyond ridiculous. Seriously man, pick up a basic stats text from the library or something.

(No, I don't have a PhD in statistics either. But I do have a masters degree in astrophysics.)

This is one of the funnier posts I've read in a while. If it's a troll, nicely done. If not, very sad. I will say that statistics and standard deviation play a huge part in how insurance companies go about their multi-billion-dollar industry. Maybe you should try seeking out a top position at any one of them by letting them know you're on the verge of using a different formula you wrote using only common sense that will revolutionize their entire industry and make that silly old standard deviation nonsense obsolete. I'm sure the offers will be flowing your way soon.

Common man, everyone knows a pi is something you eat or the name of a character in a film. And why choose the diameter when the radius or area is just as appropriate? Plus common sense says that circles are simply patterns our mind creates that don't really exist, so attempting to measure them is like a guy in Plato's cave attempting to put out the fire with a flashlight. And who are these 'mathematicians' anyway, Mr. Circle-Formula-Expert?

Hungry now.

A+ post. When czechraiser speaks, you better listen.

So you knew he had 88 in advance when you went all in on the flop. Would you have posted the hand (which you would play the same way) if he had flopped a set instead and had a ton of equity on you? Probably not

Anyway it seems your goal to spend hundreds of hours to win $100 on 888 was finally achieved and you are leaving them just before they can really rig it up on you, and now it is time to move to Stars where given your poor quality of play we will no doubt see beliefs that you think it is rigged in a short period of time. I will enjoy that.

All the best.

I'm done with you I think. I have tried to be helpful to you, but you just don't get it.

You have gone from clueless fish to one of those donks that plays live who read a poker book once and now knows some terminology, even if he doesn't know what it means.

Carry on with your fantasy, carry on playing your hands atrociously, carry on believing that you are entitled to something, carry on blaming someone else for everything.