Quote:
Originally Posted by franxic
Simple maths. Look it up. Bernoulli trials and the law of great numbers.
Say you have a fair coin and throw 25 heads in a row. Is that possible? Right, it is. What's the chance that there is another heads? Right, 1/2. When are you entitled to be even in throws? Right, never. Because the coin has no ****ing memory, you know?
Take a dime instead of a fair coin. You win whenever you throw a number that is not a six. You throw ten sixes in a row. Is that possible? Right, it is. What's the chance you throw a six again? Right, 1/6. Are you entitled to throw enough non-sixes to reach the expected value in the future? Right, you are not. Because the dime has no ****ing memory, you know?
Now take poker hands instead of a fair coin. Repeat the process. You had a downswing. Is that possible? Right, it is. Does this mean you are entitled to get lucky in the future? Right, it does not: the probability of another downswing is exactly as big as before. Are you entitled to ever reach your true ev? Right, you are not. Because the cards have no ****ing memory, you know?
The relative deviation from the mean will get smaller the more often you throw the coin/throw the dime/play a poker hand though, but there is no guarantee that you live long enough to ever get "back" to your expected value. Also, the absolute deviation (e.g. money lost) might grow greater without contradicting the law of great numbers.
Expert enough for you?
Not really but thank you anyway. First of all I dont know why anger, arogance, sarcasm, cynicism and all that acting of God in your reply but that is something you should solve on your own (or not, your choice sure, just please dont drag me in to your personal problems and lets all try to stick to the theme or just please ignore my post(s) and skip it).
Thanks other guys for kind replys as well, but must say Im not asking so much about theory and math in here. Im quite familiar with it and I understand general principles of it. Im aware of that IT IS mathematical (and tho in "practice" as well) possible that I throw a head of a coin billion times in a row at a huuuu...uuuge sample, therefor this to happen in my life time is veeeee...eery unlikely, so yes, I know Im not entitled to actually anything.
I would just like to get some opinions, "practical thoughts" from winning poker players - experts (like they are any other yeah:P
based on their experiences and knowledge, not so much theoretical "by the book" explanations. And I would like to say, Im not trying to suggest or judge anything, Im just curious:
- is 500K hands "downswing" so common that every "average" winning poker player should expect "one" now and there in his poker career?
- if yes, than is it possible (but sure not necesary) that (at least) live cash game players like Ivey, Doyle, Ungar, Harman, are just huge luckers?
- furthermore is it, or how common it is that "2 tables" (<- playing aprox. 1K hands per day) winning online holdem players will struggle with such a "unhappy" stretch almost 3 years (a bit more or less, depending on their level of skill sure)?
- if so much luck is really involved in this game is it worth to play it (beatable?) unless you grind 150K hands per month?
Thank you!