Quote:
Originally Posted by jagnje
Trillion hands? I think you are pushing it a bit. If somebody got 20 pocket aces in 25 hands, we would all conclude that the site is rigged, correct? Of course, this example goes into another direction, I am just questioning your "trillion hands" number.
People have suggested things like the above have happened. One guy said he lost his aces 17 times in a row preflop. Yet when asked for any proof (which should be very easy to provide if it happened) all we get is anger and shock that the story is not believed by everyone at face value.
There was also a guy in here doing what he called a "thought experiment" where he suggested if something impossible can be shown as possible then maybe it was no longer impossible and something was up.
Well, duh. Sure if you get aces every hand of the day that will prove it is rigged. Similarly if you transform into a 500 foot lizard, that will prove you are a 500 foot lizard.
The sample sizes needed depend on what is being proven. Ask the guys in the stats forum what you need.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jagnje
I understand the logic behind "the online poker is not rigged". However, there are good arguments also for rigging it.
First of all, I don't think that smart (almost undiscoverable) rigging is something, that would be very hard to accomplish. There are a lot of smart people and online poker sites have a lot of resources.
What about all of the people who are in on it. For hundreds of sites. For many years now. Unless you are proposing the software is doing it by itself somehow with zero human intervention, the odds are one of these guys would talk by now, especially since many of the poker rooms have collapsed and they are out of work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jagnje
Secondly, does anybody really check on sites? I mean really check. Do you trust Kahnawake and others? Because I clearly don't. FWIW, my "rigged feeling" started on Absolute Poker when I was suffering incredible beatings (just before I'd be eligible for 500$ prize). Few months later I hear that they were cheating. What a coincidence, right?
Yes, the players do who have a lot more skill at analyzing data then you or I. Even if you pretend that there is not a single bit of independent auditing done (which plenty is done), the market place and the players will check on the sites. Hell, other rooms probably keep an eye on the competition since the best thing that could happen to Tilt is a rigged scandal at Stars and vice versa.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jagnje
I played extensively on Paradise and Party Poker and these sites never felt rigged to me. On a bad day sure, but these really bad days were rare back then and there were very good days also.
Competition was much weaker then so you probably did better, and since you probably think you are a skilled, winning player the sites "felt" right. Reality is your game probably stunk bad (I know mine did in the Paradise days ) and the average skill level of the games passed you by if you did not adjust.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jagnje
Thirdly, I am not saying that all sites are rigged. There could be bad apples out there among tons of legitimate sites. Let's found out who they are and bust them. Corporations where known that they pursue any path that would make them more attractive to their customers. Why would online poker be any exception? And why would sites refrain to rig the games? Fear of catching them doing that won't do it, since nobody is going after them anyway (especially true in limit poker).
If a site will be crooked they will choose much quicker and easier ways to do it. Not paying cashouts for instance (has happened many times on smaller sites).
Other sites as well provide minimal customer service and monitoring of their games to prevent collusion and bots, generally to save costs. That is why looking at all of these factors is important when choosing where to play.
All the best.