In order for it to be a million to 1 chance you would have to play one table. Then there needs to be 999,999 other tables. There are not that many players on pokerstars at any given time.

Little over the top, no?

All I did was rephrase your statement to retain the original meaning and make it easier to understand. I didn't even offer my opinion of your statement. But somehow that makes me a "fool" because I took "existing facts" and "reworked them" to promote something. And due to the foregoing you decide I should be referred to as Hitler.

I'd say that is a bit over the top.



And actually I don't know at what hands Stars pays their milestone bonuses. However, I have not seen anyone disagree with your assertion that Stars pays them every million hands.

In the morning when you have sobered up maybe you could tell us just what the hell you are talking about.

And as a result of this, the biggest problem with his 1 in a million assertion is that it assume the hand numbers are random. Of course they aren't; they're sequential. So the people playing for the first 980,000 hands or so after a milestone have 0 chance of winning, and the ones playing for the last 20,000 hands are the ones with a shot at it.

When you take off that pointy white hood with eye slits you may want to read this from pokerstars website,I will not entertain your posts anymore.
Highlighted what you chose to miss.


PokerStars is heading towards dealing its 100 billionth hand, with hundreds of thousands of dollars in milestone hand prizes paid out along the way. There will be a special edition of the Road to 100 Billion for the 10th Anniversary, with cash on the line for every millionth hand from numbers 71,700,000,000-72,000,000,000, including $10,000 for all players dealt into the Mega Milestone hand.

Are you saying that the fact that a milestone hand is dealt once every million hands means that there is a million to one chance of winning the milestone?

I notice you've ignored all of my posts explaining how people playing for the milestone are playing a much greater chance than one in a million. Because if you think back, that's what this was all about originally - you were trying to refute the idea that people would play more to try to win a milestone by saying it was a one in a million shot, when in fact people who are playing extra to win are getting much, much, better than million to one odds. No one is disputing that one hand per million wins.

I won't confuse the issue by getting into the fact that tournament and HU hands not counting improve the odds dramatically as well.

Without reading to much can you provide data or how about the players ROI in these milestones.I am still waiting(insert explination) for how do you replace your biggest customer base with another in 3 months from a 40% reduction with customers from 1 country.

I don't have precise figures, but when you get into numbers like a 1 in 100 chance of winning a prize that can be in the tens of thousands of dollars, I'd expect it to have a pretty good effect on ROI.

I'm not really following you here. What customer base, what 40% reduction, etc.? Sorry if you posted it previously, but I have no idea which of the many changes to the poker landscape that have occurred in the last 5 years you're referring to here.

I will not begin to explain how many tables a player would need to play for this 100/1
100% of players will never get to this or obtain this edge.

After black Friday Pokerstars lost its biggest customer base(US players) almost any business would struggle and take far longer than the three months it took for pokerstars to replace and recover its customers.(Scoop and other data confirms this)Interestingly this was taken by Russian players.

LOLOLOL. I love it in here.Better than any show on tv i can think of.
Keep up the good work riggies.

I'm pretty sure the US playerpool was like 20-25% of their total customer base.

It was nowhere close to the 40% you are claiming. The world is a big place.

This has got to be the most unexpected Godwinning I've ever seen.

It was 28 percent.
Full Tilt closing in that time frame probably had something to do with Stars' increased numbers.Where do you get the information that says they were all Russian? I don't believe it.

If literally every single post in this thread isn't a troll then lol

So as you know that it will be rigged for you I assume you will be depositing big, playing big and gambling it up. So what is the strategy?

get on you-tube and look up the 'gripsed' channel. evan has a ton of micro ring game videos there, all for free. he's not the greatest tourney player but he really explains ring game strategy well, especially 6-max in the TAG school of thought. i'm sure you can get a lot out of it.

evidence?

Hello people.

First I would just like to say I am honored to be a part of this poker community. You know it's not everyday people can truly find a hobby they enjoy so much as well as a forum this big filled with people of all ages that they can share true friendship and advice with.

I come here to only give a point of view for people to think about. I am not on a crusade to take out online poker sites by any means, but I must share what I know and believe you guys should know. I do believe there will be at least 100+ people reading this that are so skilled in poker that the overwhelming bad beats that happen left and right simply will not affect their profiting almost every day they play.

There is no question that some of these websites are not only unregulated in the United States, but have participated in cheating players out of millions of dollars. Where would Ultimate Bet and Absolute Poker be today had that cheater not acted like a complete idiot and exposed himself as a more than obvious cheater? You have to understand the people that operate these sites are so incredibly smart. They can easily spend hours going back and forth heads up with a professional at a $300/$600 NL table before finally they decide to bust him in a monster vs. monster hand. It's just that simple.

The reason these sites operate is to make money, plain and simple. Many of you people on this forum are targets for these companies for the sole reason that YOU PLAY SO WELL. You are their worst enemies! If the average Joe decides he wants to try poker and he decides to sit at a 6 man table with 5 of you casting out your fish hooks waiting for him to bite, does that make the game attractive to newcomers? They'll lose their money in 1/2 hour or less and run for the hills thinking to themselves they've never received such a horrible beating (or they'll develop a compulsion like I had and still sort of have, thank God it's not nearly as bad as when I was 19). Do you think the poker sites want these people to run away? Yes I know that some of these newbies that lose are the ones that keep depositing. I understand there are also novices to semi experts (like myself) are often on the losing side in the long run and find themselves reloading as well, however I am focussing on these new players for a reason. In my 10 years+ of playing I've developed my infallible theory after experiencing some of the shadiest series of beats back to back in unbelievable strings of hands. These sites want your money spread around as often as possible, sort of like a socialist state. The more even everybody is with their bankroll day by day the more you are playing to make a profit, the more hands you play, the more rake they take, and so on and so forth. As for the newbies that I've been mentioning, THE WEBSITES NEED THEM TO WIN IN ORDER TO KEEP THEM COMING BACK! If you sharks keep emptying their pockets, they're going to get fed up and leave. The way you guys play, let's face it, these players don't have a chance unless they catch that miracle ace on the river. It is in the site's best interest to maximize profits by allowing these new players to win in any way possible, be it legitimate or ILLegitimate. And that's where my infallible theory comes into play.

Look, I'm not here to tell you there is no way to profit playing online poker. I am just saying that as some of us are Americans, our choices are limitted to where we can play and these sites know that and can more than easily take full advantage of it. Look what Full Tilt did to you guys! Thank God I was in a hospital recovering from a horrific accident and was unable to play for the longest time. Forget super users, forget bots, these people flat out stole your money and you couldn't do a damned thing about it! What if the DOJ showed 0 mercy on our illegal activities, then what would we have done? What would those poor guys and girls with $50,000+ in their accounts have done? Do you realize how much money that is? I pray everyone gets their money back but that's not the point, the point is, WE CAN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT ANYTHING. The most we can do is keep each other informed and work together. You need to understand that many of these players like myself are not bad players by any means. As nervous as I get before I sit at a table, 9 days out of 10 I would leave the tables making a profit. In fact, on Full Tilt alone (way before black Friday) a high roller gave me $50 to play with because he loved how we talked poker for a long time and I was young at the time and didn't have much money to deposit. I sent him back $40 because despite all the money he had, I try to pay all my debts (gifts or no gifts) back in 1 form or another. Anyway, not only did I give this nice guy his $10 back but in 13 days I had $8,300. I strictly played 6 man short handed tables and heads up sit n gos (no 9 man tournaments, no multi table tournaments). I say this not to impress you or hold myself in high standards, but I say this to tell you that I am not a bad poker player that wants to blame the world for bad play.

Anyway, much respect for you guys for loving poker as much as I do. But I just want to say that these companies are off shore and can literally do anything they want to us. Do you really think that even the most basic programmers can recognize the times people are playing at tables and recent depositers and recent withdrawls, amounts of deposits and so on and so forth? All of these things can be taken into consideration while these companies chomp away at your profits. Just think of Rounders and what Worm would do to his competition. Think of the movie Casino and what Pesci would do to the high rollers at the tables. There are many ways to program software to recognize players and flop, turn, and river certain cards to benefit certain players and rip off others. All I ask is that you keep an open mind.

Anyway I know it's a lot, most of you probably stopped reading but for those that haven't, I admire your quest for knowledge and dedicated players opinions. God bless you all and good luck at the tables!

P.S. Stay away from America's Cardroom. LOL (seriously).

QFT

there all rigged no doubt about it im cashing out most of my profit from merge and got off juicy. The variance is terrible you just dont get good variance while the players that sit in heads up matches do. So iinstead of gettig mad do what hurt these sites the most just leave. Dont come back dont accept bad variance from these site and start playing at the casino. I run bad just like anyone else but the times i been bad beat compared to tiems i bad beat people not even close. its probably 1000 times more for them then for me. the perfect cards come off. Card comes off complete 2 pair for me and a gut shot straight for other guy. i flop 3 queens he has 3 queens better kicker. This heads up nl very odd. All stack off spots. I have over pair board comes paired they have that 3 of ak ind every time another stack fof spot. They set up regs to stack off to fish to create rake and even out the money and that is all there is to it. Just ask yourself whens the last time you had one day you actually ran good without some weird bad beats? Its never.

So, you have the hand histories and stats to share with us right?Lets see them.

When I started on 888poker I doubled my bankroll quite quicky playing 3/6nl, but the last week its almost all gone, just consistent bad beats and bad cards. Every time, and I mean EVERY TIME I commit a lot of chips, I lose despite strong hands. my opponents always end up with a monster.

Every time I have AK, which is often, I never hit a flop, yet when I have under cards, the flop is full of kings and aces that bust me.

Just then I finally hit a flop with AK, yet my opponent with pocket queens hit a set. Of course when I hit my K, he had to get his Q to bust me.

This crap is rigged. These patterns cannot be random, where you start of winning then consistent losing, and Im a better player now than I was a few weeks ago. There is a reason why all these poker companies are regulated by obsure islands in the middle of nowhere with a population of 2000, and thats to rip us off.

I might keep playing though at low stakes just for the run factor but no point taking it serious. My 70 dollar back roll has lasted a few weeks so it was worth the fun. The best tactic I have discovered is that if someone bets big, just fold unless you have an Ace flush because 90% of the time you get beat with some BS.

So you're playing 600nl with a $70 bankroll?