If you fold postflop how do you know you were beaten, or am I confused?

Note also that if the hand is not all-in preflop, you are going to have a biased sample.

Reason being, if your opponent has Ax, you will usually not see his hand unless he makes a pair, again unless he is the type of player that will frequently show down unimproved ace highs. So the times you see his cards, he has often improved, and will often beat you. Many other times he will fold postflop, you will not see his cards, and you will not realise that your premium pair has beaten Ax. See what I mean?

Huh???

3-outers preflop should win 30% of the times that you both go to showdown. That includes Ax vs any non-Ace pair. When anyone folds, the cards and odds are irrelevant, I'm talking about showdowns. What part of that are you disagreeing with?

Not quite, unless I misunderstand.

3-outers preflop should win 30% of the times that you both go to showdown *and were all-in preflop*. The guy with the weaker hand preflop will often fold unless he hits his 3-outer (presumably a single overcard). So the set of hands that reach showdown that had post-flop betting will be biased toward him hitting.

You're correct, making the point even stronger. They should win more than 30% at showdown. The poster I responded to seemed to think it was remarkable that they win at all. He was talking about hands that reach showdown.

Well when I was putting them into excel I was looking at the pot size also and when blinds are high and you're calling ATC it seems kind of pointless. I am trying to see what kind of equity I have in bigger all-in preflop hands to gauge the luck factor.

Its not BS. Those are my preflop all-ins for today on pokerstars (I was leaving but my check bounced, now they are telling me I can only take out 1,000 at once so the BS continues).

I am a winning player on the site but only because people play so bad. When it comes to luck I just get drawn and quartered day after day after fckn day. I can't wait to compile my HU record with KK to show you guys. It gives me some satisfaction because, since you think it is BS when it isn't, that, in a sense, means that you think online poker is rigged because you don't think the actual results really happened under the assumption of a randomly shuffled deck.

It isn't that at all. I think your recollection or your reporting is probably faulty, simply because the chance of losing 16.5 times out of 18 all-ins with an average equity of 55%, is about 80,000 to 1. It's possible and surely happens with about that frequency, but you claim it is typical. It isn't. Also, your leaving out part of the sample skews the result too, you can't cherry pick it.

Like I said, I would still like to see a massive database of allins, with location information, $ equity, # of tables currently playing, and maybe merge it with Sharkscope information. If I had something like that and I could confirm no Euro bias, new player bias, bad player bias, anti-multitabler bias, etc. that would convince me.

Also a real code audit would do the trick. I just want to know that the shuffled deck object in the code isn't a black box to most programmers, only maintained and accessed by a few old long time programmers. That's the only realistic method I can see to pull off the only realistic kind or rigging I can think of.

I do not think that just showing all board cards to be random is proof of no rigging. Like I said it would be easy enough to cover your tracks on that.

But again, I would bet heavy odds against rigging. I'd just love to be 100% sure, so that I can focus my wrath on the poker gods and not have it split between them and PS.

I was only talking bout all-ins pre, and just rambled bout the postflop junk. U were saying single overcard Ax should win 30% at showdown all in pre. I was saying it felt like a **** ton more, like 2x+ (yeah only remember when u lose blah blah heard it before). Oh wellz I'm done with this thread...just wanted to rant bout the std "rigged-seeming" day where u lose everything to 2-3outs all in pre at showdown.

See post 5242, you can do it yourself (all except player location, which is pretty ridiculous anyway).

Well considering that if you were going to rig, player location might be the number one thing you'd want to rig right now (foster the Euros, pillage the US players since they're gone soon anyway), I don't know about that.

Then provide the complete database of your hands of the day as recorded in your tracking software. Why would you expect people to believe anything you say just because you add "Its not BS."

Strange since you and many others make it clear that the players who play bad win because the site helps them.

If you do that you will be the first riggedologist to ever provide actual data. You are not the first to say you will show us all, many have done that, but that is where it ends. Well, ok - some post 1 or 2 hands now and then.


No, it means that no one believes what you are saying. Also, no one believes you will ever provide data that can be verified and studied.

The results you talk about are certainly possible, but generally a riggedologist likes you uses selective memory and a lot of emotion to stretch the actual truth.

Think of it like this. If a person with a medical degree and 20 years history in surgery tells me he can perform surgery I believe him. If you tell me you can I will not believe you. The fact I do not believe YOU does not mean I do not believe anyone can perform surgery.

Provide verifiable data and people will believe you more, but no one expects you will ever do this.

All the best.

Thank you for seriouse responce.
Could you, please, point me to some of those sites selling hand histories.
Two I've found are pokerftp.com (thanks to Spadebidder) and pokertableratings.
Do you know some more?
pokerftp.com is free for researches, but their hand histories are anonymous
The other sells HH for cash. I sent them email asking if their HH anonymouse or, if they are not, if substitute niknames consistently correspond to real. Only in this case any analyses for identifying winning players make sence. By the way, they charge $175 for 5000 HH. I doubt I can afford several millions of HH.

If it works the way you proposed, it's a very good point. Same moment I realize its really easy, I'm gonna change "religion".

Never mind.
Please, note, I never called you a shill. For me it does not matter who is a poster, shill, poker site CEO, or devil. As long as he sounds reasonable.
I would rather prefer CEO as the most dependable source of information.

Surely, I see the difference between statistical experiment and statistical analysis based on a biased sample. The latter though theoreticaly possible, needs so enormouse sample size, which is practically unreal for players.

pokerftp.com claims following:
"We support no opponent profiling policy. Therefore we are taking measures to prevent usage of this database for opponent profiling".
Do you know if it's still possible to identify strong / weak player, even under their fake ID's. It would only be possible if real ID's always correspond to new ones.
You should know for sure if it's possible.
I doubt again (sorry), because (theoretically) in this case I could take those HH, compare to my own HH's, by some criteria identify myself, then by comparison identify my opponents and get them profiled.

Please, respond.

Preflop all ins are verry random without any doubt, the games are rigged in a more clever way. Its simply a kind of moneymanagment from the sites to increase the RAKE. Simple rigg is too easy to detect.

They are uniquely identified, just obfuscated. So you can track a specific player's record, you just don't know who they are.


Yes.

See this thread too:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...h-beta-452536/

Ah, I see now.
Please to be explaining how that works.

I wish there were a way to determine the religious affiliation of riggedologists around the globe. My assumption is that deep down most of them are actually "believers". Hey, since life is rigged..

Just irrelevantly curious

He can't and he is paranoid, but to give him some credit he at least has the sense to believe in the logic that if the sites are rigged they are not rigging it in one of the easiest manners to detect. Other riggedologists can learn from this one.

you're an idiot. look all over this thread that's the main argument of discussion from rigged-believers. you guys will just say anything and everything as a response to someone's post it's so rediculous.

Indeed.

Including but not limited to: "FFS, learn how to spell 'ridiculous'."

Thank you for your time.

Oh, and BTW, run on sentence.

" you guys will just say anything and everything as a response to someone's post it's so rediculous."

I did. Whole lotta whining about all in luck and other easy to prove/confirm ideas.

Oh yeah, some mafia/entropy/50% house bot player theories as well. Those are indeed harder to prove or disprove...

Then why are you lieing?? Oh - must be because you've run out of responses. I'll let you get the last word

I already used that "you must get the last word" routine on qpw the other day so do something else. Show some creativity.

Also I hope "lieing" was a clever level to annoy qpw. Odds are it was not, but one can always hope.

I am a lerker around here, I love to read posts and browse the forum a lot, and I am also not here to say pokerstars is rigged. I came to a conclusion, i think pokerstars is trying teach you a lesson though.. because this his happened to be twice..
I decided to deposit $100 because I was bored and I haven't played on stars for a while. I decided to play PLO8 and first hand I got delt was like 8D,8s,Ks,Ad and I the flop comes 8C, 9C, 2C, JC, and there was 6 of us. The pot was $100 and I decided go all in with like $70 bucks left, everyone folded.. blah blah, next like 4 hands I keep getting SETS and they held up going all in. Then I get quad aces later, and then a straight flush 2 hands later.. and im not lying, I took screenshots and saved them in a folder.. I got up to $700 dollars..

NOW, this happened to me 2 months ago playing NLHE, I had KJ, and the flop is J, blah blah I dont remember, but I shoved all in and rivered the K, two pair.. and the pot was like $575. The player had AA, and QQ. Now.. I realize is that after going on a heater pokerstars turns that **** completely around, now you're getting your set beat, or ur straight beat, etc.. I completely LOST it all lol.. I think pokerstars makes your first deposit in a while a huge heater then you go on a bad run later in the night.. idk has anyone else experienced this before? I am still playing pokerstars but not as much after I go up.

Wouldn't the site giving you an advantage at the start and "forcing" you to lose later be the definition of rigged?

There is a whole thread on that which may be useful to you.