Thanks, I'm going to try those out later today.

Way to go K13!

Not to sound condescending or anything, but, this! It seems K13 was mostly blowing off steam with his bad beats ITT, and since he stopped doing that, has proved to be a lot more reasonable than I though at first.

K13, I don't know if there's an easy way to bring off one hand versus another reports, but my concern would be that you need a pretty large sample size to do that.

Just as an example, let's say you had 100,000 hands and tried to compare how AA fared against KK. At 1/220 for pocket pairs, you should only even have AA about 500 times (454.5), and it will only come up against KK a handful of times.

Not saying you shouldn't pursue this, just pointing out some of the limitations.

Here's my graph for SNG's from SNGLuck,
is this mean I'm running better than expected?

Thank you for your response. So, you have been a decent winning live player. Unfortunately, you stopped playing online. If you had become a winning player online, it would add up to "not rigged" side position.

I live in Las Vegas. Go figure

Wait....are you just looking for examples of players that are good live as well as online? What exactly is your point?

Another weekend, another running 50% below expectation on my high-equity showdowns set after set after set after set after set after set. ****ing chinese water torture. I realize how stupid I sound. But that still doesn't nullify the fact that this will never stop. Ever.

so many bad beat online...

is because people are more likly to play more vairty of hands?
Cause i notice that i dont see people go all in with pair 2s but i do see that often online...

and sometimes i even see people go all in off suit 7 2...

which makes online harder to predict.....

It just seems like the worse the players get the worse I run. Ppl are so bad in my games right now. Summer is always good since a lot of the grinders are dinking around at the WSOP. But I just can't get a break.

I honestly can't remember ever having a winning holiday weekend. And those are always the worst of the worst players.

I'm sure it's just an anomaly. But it's so hard to fight every instinct in your body telling you something is messed up.

I feel like the better the players are, the worse I run. Much worse because it's harder to win it back.

35 AA's on AP so far, 100% win rate. I almost don't believe it.

I think that argument could be made. There is also the element of "being embarrassed" if caught in a bluff or bad play during live poker whereas online you are more anonymous.

That said, online players (obviously) multi-table a lot and this cuts down on the range of hands being played. Also, in live poker there are less hands dealt so it takes more patience to just play premium hands thus the range could be larger for that reason.

I'd have to see what the data suggests, but those are just some thoughts to consider for each side of the equation.

K13 - I think you are starting to see the tremendous power that selective memory has in causing suspicions of riggedness. When you actually accumulate a hand history and evaluate it, it really doesn't take that large a sample to see that you approach the true expectation for your hands, and that you get dealt the expected number of each hand type as well. In the samples I look at, you can select as few as a half a million random hands and not really find any significant deviations in there worth noting, no matter how you slice and dice it. But with just five hundred hands, you could easily run total robusto or total busto even playing perfectly. With 134 million possible 7-card holdem hands it can take a while for the long run to catch up with you.

I'm glad you're on the right track.

Amen to that.

Every time a rigtard sees the light an angel gets h(er/is) wings!

???????????????????????????????????????????

You better be joking because I don't see how villain could have possibly played it worse.

POT ODDS TO CALL?
What fkn planet do you live on?
And if villain is working for the site, then they made $200 if he wins.

Yay just had my first winning set on the 6th try. +$15. Every draw gets there against, I lose every race, my draws never get there. etc. etc. Same story 8 weekends in a row now. One set was one of the best sets I've ever had to start. Doubled up on like 3/4 of my tables, alive and healthy on all. Then as soon as the equity gets high, switch gets flipped, can't win a thing to save my life.

Not rigged, I know. But might as well be because this will never end.

You know it's pretty easy to look up the overall results of the villain in that hand. Post or PM me his screen name, I'll be happy to look it up and we can see just how much money he's making working for the sites.

He's obviously a donk based on the preflop call. After calling off $120 preflop it doesn't surprise me much that he called off $80 more. Pretty positive your opponent was just a big time loser who got lucky on you. He was 1.1 % to win the hand, and he did. We see 98 to 1 shots happen in life often enough. It doesn't mean rigged.

In life and in poker.

Maybe a couple of times an hour on a fast table.

98 to 1 would be what, runner runner perfect?

yeah running trips, three eights left in the deck and he had to hit two of them... actually 1.1% would be more like 90 to 1 or something close depending on rounding. It won't happen often mainly because it's incredibly rare for somebody to be that far ahead in an all in situation. Normally there's a better chance of a suckout or the villian is just plain drawing dead.

Nonetheless, for every 90-100 times it does happen, the underdog is going to win one.

No, runner runner perfect is 998 to 1. That's when only two exact cards in the deck can make the hand if you hit them both on the turn and river, such as for straight flush or quads.

The single hand that scooper showed as proof of rigging was not 989 to 1. It was not 98-1.

AcKs vs Ad 8d on the Kh7dQh board


Gives AK a 93.74% chance to win

Gives Ad8d a 4.75% chance to win

and there is 1.52% chance to tie


so it is more like 19-1 or so.


The hand I posted from the WPT was more like 200-1. Thus, live poker on TV is about 10 times more rigged then online poker. Also, since about 5,000 times the amount was at stake on the WPT this now makes live poker 50,000 times more rigged then online.

Riggedology math. Learn it, live it, love it.

Hand frequencies were never really in doubt. That would be too easy for anyone to spot. There's too many variables to prove anything one way or another. I would need more stats and more situations.

I'll just keep playing till I lose.

ah never saw the backdoor flushdraw.... we're even less rigged now lol