Quote:
Originally Posted by hellojello
It's hilarious seeing this top poker of all time. Costa Rica, Malta, Gilbrater, Commonwealth of the Bahamas. LMFAO. Like WTF. I've never heard of ONE decent poker player from these countries ever. Canada? Russia? Sweden? Where are any of the know countries with good players. It's all little scum bag places, criminal paradises. British Indian Ocean Territory. Isn't that where Gilligan tried to rescue Mary-Anne and Ginger. Didn't think they still had electricty there. Must have a wireless laptop. What a crock.
I know hellojello doesn't have the inclination to read this and wouldn't understand it even if he did, but thought it might be interesting to others:
There are good reasons why large countries are not generally going to be in the top countries by winnings. You should consider that:
a) The 'average' player loses the rake.
b) Each player is in a sense, drawn from a normal distribution whose mean is the average player.
c) The larger the number of players drawn, the more their average results get close to the results of an average player.
d) Note that without rake, the result would not be true. You would expect large countries to be leading both the 'biggest winners' and 'biggest losers' lists.
You can easily simulate this result yourself in Excel. =RAND()-0.5 returns a result between -0.5 and 0.5, representing a random player who either wins or loses. However, we have some rake, so let's do =RAND()-0.55. Now this returns a value between -0.55 and 0.45, with the 'average result' being to lose 0.05 units.
We'll represent a 'big country' in column A. Just put =RAND()-0.55 in cell A1, and drag that down to all cells A1->A100. This 'country' has 100 players. In Cell A102, put =SUM(A1:A100). You will 'probably' see a negative result. Hit F9 to refresh your spreadsheet. Probably still negative right? Keep hitting F9, you will get lots of negative numbers, and *VERY* rarely, a positive number (you might not see one for a long time)
Now make a 'small country' in column B. Just do the same thing but only drag the results down to B10, and put =SUM(B1:B10) in cell B12. Keep hitting F9 to refresh again. Still mostly negative right, but you see a positive number quite often.
Country 'B' beats Country 'A' almost all of the time in terms of winnings. Even if you lower the rake by changing -0.55 to say, -0.51, you still see that B beats A more than 50% of the time. It's only when theres no rake at all that they are equally likely to be highest.
Note further that having 'the best player' doesn't matter. If you look through your 110 random numbers to see which one is highest, you will see that it is in 'country' A 10/11ths of the time, and in country B 1/11th of the time. But having a good player doesnt help, because it also has the worst player most of the time, and in general, just has more average players, and average players lose.
Even if you think country A's players are better *on average*, and change -0.55 to -0.54 in that column, their total result is still almost always worse than country B.
Of course that is no particular reason why a *given* small country should do well. We would have to look for external factors for that, I would suggest that they are simply more likely places for winning US/elsewhere regs to emigrate to if they can't/don't want to live in their own country. For example so far this month 'Thailand' is doing very well which is obviously a popular destination for poker players.
You would certainly expect that countries that have a large population of *native* poker players and that are not popular destinations for emigration would be the absolute worst, i.e. germany, russia, uk will always be near the bottom despite having some very competent individual players.