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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,449 34.95%
No 5,524 55.98%
Undecided 895 9.07%
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Old 06-02-2009, 08:31 AM   #4101
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by BucketFoot View Post
If they alter one card out of 100 hands would any data realistically be able to determine the alteration.
Yes. Let's say we see a flop 50% of the time, turn 30%, and river 25%. Every 100 hands we have 205 board cards. Altering one of them is a whopping half a percent, and that would be a huge skew in large samples, and immediately obvious statistically. It also would throw off the balance of more than one board type, as the hand was destined to be one type and was altered to make it another type. So the card distribution would be off on the altered street(s), and the board type distribution would be off in multiple categories. The data I'm working on doesn't show this to be happening.

The other side of the problem is how altering 1 card in 100 hands can affect player behavior and outcomes enough to increase the house rake a meaningful amount. I don't think it could.

Last edited by spadebidder; 06-02-2009 at 08:40 AM.
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Old 06-02-2009, 11:46 AM   #4102
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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I strongly believe in the 'newcommer-fish-heater' dogma.
It makes sense from a casino's perspective to feed a beginning gambler initially with great luck, just to reap his degenerate deposits for a long period afterwards.

It's people like you that make me glad I'm not a dealer anymore. I am curious though.. is luck spoon fed or do you need a fork? (Put derogatory name here)

Great money does not equal happiness!
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Old 06-02-2009, 11:48 AM   #4103
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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If it looks and feels like something isn't entirely honest, then chances are it's not.
It's far more likely that you're not nearly as good at poker as you think you are. Also, you probably don't understand the true nature of variance. You might think you do, but you don't.
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Old 06-02-2009, 12:03 PM   #4104
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

How many of you guys have ever ate pie & mash? (London, East End style) Not many is my guess and boy, you don't know what you are missing.


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Old 06-02-2009, 12:08 PM   #4105
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by BucketFoot View Post
If they alter one card out of 100 hands would any data realistically be able to determine the alteration.
1. Possibly, yes. Especially over a large sample of hands. I mean, that IS the idea, isn't it? To alter results significantly? If the results aren't altered in a way that a statistical analysis reveals, then the house edge isn't so much that expert play wouldn't counteract it.

2. If the board changes once in 100 hands played, that doesn't guarantee your results are different. What if the 100th hand happens to be one in which you are heads-up against another player designated by the conspirators as a loser? What if you catch bad on the river but your bluff pushes the opposition out of the pot? What if the only cards that can hurt you and help the opponent have already been seen, then folded by players not in the pot?
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Old 06-02-2009, 12:46 PM   #4106
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

I've had bangers & mash. Does that count?
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Old 06-02-2009, 03:32 PM   #4107
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
Yes. Let's say we see a flop 50% of the time, turn 30%, and river 25%. Every 100 hands we have 205 board cards. Altering one of them is a whopping half a percent, and that would be a huge skew in large samples, and immediately obvious statistically. It also would throw off the balance of more than one board type, as the hand was destined to be one type and was altered to make it another type. So the card distribution would be off on the altered street(s), and the board type distribution would be off in multiple categories. The data I'm working on doesn't show this to be happening.

The other side of the problem is how altering 1 card in 100 hands can affect player behavior and outcomes enough to increase the house rake a meaningful amount. I don't think it could.
Say a 7c is supposed to come on the river but instead a 9d shows up instead.
Now 200 hands later a 9d is about to be dealt but instead the 7c shows up.
Please tell me how this would be detectable.
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Old 06-02-2009, 03:34 PM   #4108
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by _Towelie_ View Post
It's far more likely that you're not nearly as good at poker as you think you are. Also, you probably don't understand the true nature of variance. You might think you do, but you don't.
LOL. I've never heard that one before. If that's all you got please don't waste your time posting.
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Old 06-02-2009, 03:36 PM   #4109
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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I've had bangers & mash. Does that count?
You talking about those 2 little kids from Dragon Quest 8? That game kicked ass.
And T. A. Schwitters, you are about as bright as that kid in your avatar.
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Old 06-02-2009, 03:38 PM   #4110
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by BucketFoot View Post
Say a 7c is supposed to come on the river but instead a 9d shows up instead.
Now 200 hands later a 9d is about to be dealt but instead the 7c shows up.
Please tell me how this would be detectable.
so you're saying they pick the "correct" river card, but then discard and replace it to help a certain player win the pot based on decisions everyone in the pot made pre-flop, on the flop and turn?
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Old 06-02-2009, 03:53 PM   #4111
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Markusgc View Post
so you're saying they pick the "correct" river card, but then discard and replace it to help a certain player win the pot based on decisions everyone in the pot made pre-flop, on the flop and turn?
Ya basically, but i don't think they determine it by what decisions players make.
More likely by how much money you are up or down. This ensures that fish don't go broke and regs don't make too much. I'm not saying this happens, but would it be easy to find if it did happen?
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Old 06-02-2009, 04:14 PM   #4112
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Ya basically, but i don't think they determine it by what decisions players make.
they have to. or are you just saying they randomly decide to change river cards for no reason?

in order for this "improper" card to help someone win a pot, it has to make their hand better than their opponents'. frequently, poor players make bad calls pre-flop and then more calls on the next streets without proper odds. if the player with the best hand plays his hand well, the decisions he makes affect how the guy who's gonna get his miracle river is going to play. how does the software know the bad player won't fold on the turn? or that the good player will put anymore money in on the river?

this concept of the software keeping track of tens of thousands of hands and adjusting them on the fly to help folks it has determined need a little more help to play for another hour, or day or even week is pretty ludicrous.
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Old 06-02-2009, 05:31 PM   #4113
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by BucketFoot View Post
Say a 7c is supposed to come on the river but instead a 9d shows up instead.
Now 200 hands later a 9d is about to be dealt but instead the 7c shows up.
Please tell me how this would be detectable.
It's possible it could be done to cancel out like that, but it also probably wouldn't help the site increase rake. And it would almost certainly be detectable anyway, depending on the context. If the added card was always put in to complete a certain type of hand, the correction would have to negate one of that same type of hand, or else you would have two board types skewed from what they should be, and it would be detectable. And hole cards completing certain hands would be happening at different rates they they are supposed to, which would also be detectable.

Let's say that 9d is put in to make a 3-flush on the board, to complete a hand for someone holding a suited hand. That increases the number of 3-flushed boards. So when the 7c is put back into the count 200 hands later to make the card distribution right, it still won't make the board distribution right unless it is dealt at a time when a 3-flush board was supposed to show up, but doesn't. The number of expected 3-flush boards can be calculated for a random deal (5.176% on the flop, 12.36% to turn the 3rd suited board card, etc.). The number of 9d hitting the turn spot can be calculated for a random deal (1.923%). The number of 7c hitting the river spot can be calculated for a random deal (1.923%). The times a person holding suited hole cards should complete a flush can be calculated for the flop, turn and river, etc, etc. There are many interdependencies to be managed, not to mention throwing in betting, player profiles, and other factors that the site would need to consider for such a scheme. They'd need the NSA's computers to keep up with it.

Everything has to come out right. It's very very difficult (if not impossible) to rig any cards and then balance them out statistically later, and at the same time accomplish increasing rake for the site.
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Old 06-02-2009, 07:03 PM   #4114
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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LOL. I've never heard that one before. If that's all you got please don't waste your time posting.
Yeah that ones almost as good as;

"Your playing way more hands online so your going to see more bad beats blah blah blah"
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Old 06-02-2009, 07:07 PM   #4115
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Markusgc View Post
so you're saying they pick the "correct" river card, but then discard and replace it to help a certain player win the pot based on decisions everyone in the pot made pre-flop, on the flop and turn?
Im sure alterations are happening during hands. Probably vs house players/house bots or new players on a manipulated initial upswing. That and hands are set up pre flop to guarantee an action hand.
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Old 06-02-2009, 07:20 PM   #4116
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
Im sure alterations are happening during hands. Probably vs house players/house bots or new players on a manipulated initial upswing. That and hands are set up pre flop to guarantee an action hand.
Commandment 2: Thou shalt state an opinion and declare it a fact

Commandment 4: Thou shalt assume

Commandment 5: Thou shalt have no time to test thy theories

and a little bit of implied

Commandment 1: Thou shalt ask others to prove it false


All you new riggedologists recognize what a seasoned vet can accomplish in terms of commandments followed per words used.

Note also how Scooper will never say anything bad about a fellow riggedologist, even the guy who said it was the Russia/Israel mafia at fault, so he is even following commandment 6


Commandment 6: Thou shalt support they brethren unconditionally



Quote:
Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
Yeah that ones almost as good as;

"Your playing way more hands online so your going to see more bad beats blah blah blah"
Hmm, there should be some commandment in this type of sarcastic response to an obvious fact (that more hands = more beats, maybe it should be less to riggedologists somehow).

Will have to think about this, but it is good to see one of the senior riggedologists back in action to show these raw newer ones the proper way to follow the commandments.
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Old 06-02-2009, 07:22 PM   #4117
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

your != you're

It really grates on the eyes to see that repeatedly. I suggest not using contractions and sticking with "you are" when your not sure.
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Old 06-02-2009, 07:38 PM   #4118
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by SooperFish24 View Post
new players on a manipulated initial upswing.
Here's a list of sites that where I started losing immediately after I started playing on the site:
Ultimate Bet
Full Tilt Poker
Some Prima Poker sites I can't remember the names of
Titan Poker
SunPoker (Cryptologic network)

Here's a list of sites where I started winning immediately after I started playing on the site:
PokerStars
Interpoker (Cryptologic network)
Some Prima Poker sites I can't remember the names of.
Empire Poker (an old Party skin)

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"blah blah blah"
The main riggedologist defense vs. logical arguments.
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Old 06-02-2009, 08:24 PM   #4119
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by BucketFoot View Post
Say a 7c is supposed to come on the river but instead a 9d shows up instead.
Now 200 hands later a 9d is about to be dealt but instead the 7c shows up.
Please tell me how this would be detectable.
If you're afraid of a site fiddling the community cards (as you seem to imply) then you should play at a site where this sort of activity is demonstrably impossible.
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Old 06-02-2009, 09:18 PM   #4120
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

So people have seen that statistically AA wins the proper amount of times over a large statistical sample as well as all the other hands winning at their expected win rate. But have they ever tried to measure if hands win at their expected rates during crucial hands?

How do we define crucial? I guess it could be defined different ways but during a tournament a good one would be during the bubble or during high-blinds heads-up when its push/fold fest. Cash I suppose it could be something like any pots over x BBs or something.

Why would it matter? Because another one of the complaints I hear often is that suckouts happen in favor of the big stack to make tournaments end faster or that AA gets sucked out during big cash pots to increase the rake.
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Old 06-02-2009, 10:40 PM   #4121
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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You talking about those 2 little kids from Dragon Quest 8? That game kicked ass.
And T. A. Schwitters, you are about as bright as that kid in your avatar.
Nice ad hominem. It's only appropriate, since all the other logical fallacies have already been beaten to death itt.

Oh, and as long as I rock half as hard as that kid, brightness can take a back seat.
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Old 06-02-2009, 11:03 PM   #4122
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Oh, and as long as I rock half as hard as that kid, brightness can take a back seat.
LMAO well said
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Old 06-02-2009, 11:13 PM   #4123
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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So people have seen that statistically AA wins the proper amount of times over a large statistical sample as well as all the other hands winning at their expected win rate. But have they ever tried to measure if hands win at their expected rates during crucial hands?
So which "non-crucial" hands would the site choose for evening out the bonus cards by taking them away from someone else? You can't alter any hands without affecting the entire distribution in multiple interconnected ways.
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Old 06-02-2009, 11:21 PM   #4124
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Everything has to come out right. It's very very difficult (if not impossible) to rig any cards and then balance them out statistically later, and at the same time accomplish increasing rake for the site.
I agree it would be very difficult for them to do so but nobody said it was supposed to be easy. We went to the moon because it was hard right, not because it was easy. If sites were to try this scheme they would probably make it as complex as possible to avoid detection. And it's not necessarily about increasing the rake per hand. Keeping the fish alive as long as possible and limiting the amount of money regs can make keeps everyone playing longer hours.
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Old 06-02-2009, 11:24 PM   #4125
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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So which "non-crucial" hands would the site choose for evening out the bonus cards by taking them away from someone else? You can't alter any hands without affecting the entire distribution in multiple interconnected ways.
Interesting cycle.

They make up stuff.

You explain why that made up stuff cannot exist

They make up more stuff



It's like a bad sci fi show



Quote:
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I agree it would be very difficult for them to do so but nobody said it was supposed to be easy. We went to the moon because it was hard right, not because it was easy. If sites were to try this scheme they would probably make it as complex as possible to avoid detection. And it's not necessarily about increasing the rake per hand. Keeping the fish alive as long as possible and limiting the amount of money regs can make keeps everyone playing longer hours.

Honestly, if a site cheats people it generally will be in the easiest way possible. Like not paying out withdraws. This super duper fantasy AI stuff is completely impractical as a crime.
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