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View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
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Old 05-27-2009, 08:53 PM   #3826
toltec444
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
I'm still working on the java code, and right now I only have a sample database of ~2 million hands to work from. IndianaV8 (who has the 1 billion hand database) is going to be unavailable for a week or two to run my code against the full database. He already put one of my programs in his public distribution on pokerftp.com but you can't get the full database for your own use unless you are a qualified (published) academic researcher, and I'm not. So I have to submit my runs to him.

I had to brush up some on my java coding and use of objects/classes since I don't write code for a living, and way back when I did so I used mostly procedural languages, but it's coming along.

The full database has a huge amount of PS and FT hands (well over half), and a smaller amount of 4 other sites. I don't know if Indiana is going to let me get results broken down by site, as even generically identified (site #) it will be pretty obvious by the counts which is which. He is being careful to obfuscate site and player identities when he allows others access to the data. But I've written my code to separate them, so we'll see if he allows it.

So far I have a very clean all-in analysis working for preflop all-ins, broken down to a fine grain of equity vs. wins. I fixed the problems in the preliminary run that was posted, which didn't account for ties properly, and had small equity errors (<1%) by using 169x169 hand types instead of full outcome enumeration of exact suited hands (1326x1326), which it does now. I also am tabulating a corresponding summary of the hand types in each bracket, which is interesting in itself but it allows a drill down on any anomolies too, to see if particular hand types come out to expectation.

I'm also working on extending it to handle all showdowns that include an all-in at any street, and possibly doing all showdowns regardless of bets (but that will take days to run against the database). We also have the ability to segregate the equity analysis by player histories or stakes, with whatever criteria are interesting.

All this applies only to NLHE, which is the only game I'm working on.

Thats cool, I´m curious, but is 1 billion is enough to get statistically significant results on all these analysis.
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Old 05-27-2009, 08:54 PM   #3827
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Realistically, once the entertainment value of chatting with you fades there is zero reason to make any effort to help you understand the flaws in your grand theory, even if you hint that you may be open to change.

Why? The reason is simple, at the core you utterly believe in everything you have created, and even in the face of an immense amount of proof otherwise all that will happen is...



which is exactly why I am suggesting to spade that he smile, pat you on the head, bid you a fond farewell, and post some genuinely interesting stuff in the appropriate forum.




Do it yourself then. If you cannot do it then just stick with funny conspiracy theories that require no real data. If you can sucker spade into wasting more time on you then good for you I suppose.

Anyway, you were a breath of fresh air for a while, but that time has passed.

All the best




Ugg, all this will do then is create a new "NL is fine, but Badugi is rigged" following...


WTF are you talking about??

Do you want a fight partner? Not me, go find someone else.
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Old 05-27-2009, 09:16 PM   #3828
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Im saying I´m almost convinced my theory does not work, just would like to see the math showing it. I have no problem in throwing my theory away if I get what I think is a good argument that shows me it does not work. No problem in being wrong. Let it go. I´ve been learning to fold.

But, that doesnt mean that someday I come with an improved theory, and the fun goes on.


Dont take that as resigning, I still want to see the math showing the profit would be too low by changing 0,5% in the EV.
At what point do you simply acknowledge that more than likely the deal is fair instead of trying to find another theory that will allow for your belief that online poker is rigged?
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Old 05-27-2009, 09:18 PM   #3829
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Thats cool, I´m curious, but is 1 billion is enough to get statistically significant results on all these analysis.
It would be important to understand what comprises a reliable sample before coming up with anymore "theories".
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Old 05-27-2009, 09:29 PM   #3830
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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It would be important to understand what comprises a reliable sample before coming up with anymore "theories".


Yes. Reliability is everything in this globalized world.
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Old 05-27-2009, 09:56 PM   #3831
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

North korea are preparing a launch of new poker network called "Nuclear Poker" ... I am bored sorry.
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Old 05-27-2009, 11:34 PM   #3832
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

what's funny about the latest theory is the premise that when "fish" win more than they should it's allegedly so the money will stay on the table longer, thus allowing more rake to be paid.

if the better player wins the money he'll keep it and continue playing, so the rake will continue to be generated. I doubt the site who cares too much who pays them, so long as revenue is coming in.
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Old 05-27-2009, 11:49 PM   #3833
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PokerStars SCAM

All this sounds kinda Familiar.

http://www.ripoffreport.com/reports/...Off0399304.htm
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Old 05-27-2009, 11:53 PM   #3834
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Re: PokerStars SCAM

Meh, standard. Let these idiots be.
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Old 05-27-2009, 11:53 PM   #3835
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Markusgc View Post
what's funny about the latest theory is the premise that when "fish" win more than they should it's allegedly so the money will stay on the table longer, thus allowing more rake to be paid.

if the better player wins the money he'll keep it and continue playing, so the rake will continue to be generated. I doubt the site who cares too much who pays them, so long as revenue is coming in.
This point turns out to be very significant. I've talked to some folks who know, and when a poker site does revenue projections, there are really only two variables for cash games. How many players are sitting in seats on a 24/7 averaged basis (such as is shown on PokerScout) and what are the average stakes being played. The second one is relatively constant once a site is established and only changes slowly over time. And of course the rake scale is fixed. So the first variable is the one that must be affected by any rigging scheme if it is to be profitable. They have to have more players sitting in seats and being dealt hands. Nothing else matters.

So any plausible rigging scheme has to result in more players sitting in seats. That is the only way the site makes more money.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:00 AM   #3836
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
This point turns out to be very significant. I've talked to some folks who know, and when a poker site does revenue projections, there are really only two variables for cash games. How many players are sitting in seats on a 24/7 averaged basis (such as is shown on PokerScout) and what are the average stakes being played. The second one is relatively constant once a site is established and only changes slowly over time. And of course the rake scale is fixed. So the first variable is the one that must be affected by any rigging scheme if it is to be profitable. They have to have more players sitting in seats and being dealt hands. Nothing else matters.

So any plausible rigging scheme has to result in more players sitting in seats. That is the only way the site makes more money.
Will save everyone time

Expected Riggedologist reply:

Well, this "proves" the site rigs it because by keeping money in the fish's hands longer they stay at the table longer so more seats are being filled.

Regulars will just reload when they lose, but fish may leave when they get busted so that is why they rig it so they bust slower.

How? Eh, who knows, riggedology is not meant to handle details like that - it just gets done that is all that matters. Now that we know we have to make theories work toward more seats being filled, we can adapt.

That and the Russians are behind it.

Or the Lizard People.

Good night.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:08 AM   #3837
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Re: PokerStars SCAM

Cliff notes, quoted from link.

Quote:
I've signed up by many different account names.

Quote:
I lose all my money...happens everytime.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:17 AM   #3838
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Re: PokerStars SCAM

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wow you are dumb. learn how to play the game without selective memory. gg noob.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:20 AM   #3839
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Re: PokerStars SCAM

ur mom's a scam.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:25 AM   #3840
toltec444
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
This point turns out to be very significant. I've talked to some folks who know, and when a poker site does revenue projections, there are really only two variables for cash games. How many players are sitting in seats on a 24/7 averaged basis (such as is shown on PokerScout) and what are the average stakes being played. The second one is relatively constant once a site is established and only changes slowly over time. And of course the rake scale is fixed. So the first variable is the one that must be affected by any rigging scheme if it is to be profitable. They have to have more players sitting in seats and being dealt hands. Nothing else matters.

So any plausible rigging scheme has to result in more players sitting in seats. That is the only way the site makes more money.
So in that point my theory makes sense.

Lets imagine a HU scenario in an poker room where just these 2 players are connected and playing, to make the thinking more easy.

Lets imagine the bad player is wanting to waste maximum 2 BI playing HU before stop playing and going to sleep, the longer the better player takes to win those 2 BI more rake will be generated. The better player could be wanting to play more, but as the bad player went to bed theres no one more to play against. That means zero rake for the site.

This is a simplistic scenario but you can transpose it to larger scale. The poker rooms want to keep more players playing longer they can.


Another way to think that maybe easier is to imagine a site with 1000 players logged in. 500 of that players are fish and 500 are good players. In the long run the flow of money will go from the bad players to the good players.

Lets imagine the good players are all running very good and in 2 hours all 500 bad players lose all their bankroll and stop playing. All the 500 good players keep logged and playing.

What happenend? To the point of view of the poker room, in 2 hours there were 1000 players generating rake for them, and now they have just 500 players, so the profit rate went down 50%.

So it comes to:

1. More people playing, more rake

2. The longer the losing players take to lose their poker bankroll and stop playing more rake is generated to the site.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:26 AM   #3841
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Re: PokerStars SCAM

OP, next time post here.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:29 AM   #3842
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Re: PokerStars SCAM

This article is stupid and proves absolutely nothing. PStars is not a scam. If you believe it's a scam you just may be an idiot.... BTW.. I do know a few people who make a decent profit on PStars.... and no... they're not in cahoots with them.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:33 AM   #3843
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Will save everyone time

Expected Riggedologist reply:

Well, this "proves" the site rigs it because by keeping money in the fish's hands longer they stay at the table longer so more seats are being filled.

Regulars will just reload when they lose, but fish may leave when they get busted so that is why they rig it so they bust slower.
How? Eh, who knows, riggedology is not meant to handle details like that - it just gets done that is all that matters. Now that we know we have to make theories work toward more seats being filled, we can adapt.


Another point is that

That and the Russians are behind it.

Or the Lizard People.

Good night.

You missed one point, it doesnt matter if one of the players are fish or not. If two great players are HU but one is slghtly better than the other it is interesting to the poker room that the bad one go broke in the slower rate possible, because by that more rake will be paid by THE TWO PLAYERS.


Another thing: Its not about "fish may leave when they get busted ". You dont need that fish may leave. In the large and long run scale there are two kind of players, the one who will win money and the ones who will get broke and stop playing. They will stop playing because they have no more money to play with, not because tey get angry.

There is a money flow, this money flow means lost of clients (players) to the site. They have to costantly bring new players to the site to keep the traffic level. If they dont do that, in the long run they will get broke or get very small with the little elite players fighting against each other infinitely, if we assume they have the same skills.

Last edited by toltec444; 05-28-2009 at 12:42 AM.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:44 AM   #3844
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Re: PokerStars SCAM

This will not end well.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:44 AM   #3845
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Re: PokerStars SCAM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tilt-N-Spew View Post
This article is stupid and proves absolutely nothing. PStars is not a scam. If you believe it's a scam you just may be an idiot.... BTW.. I do know a few people who make a decent profit on PStars.... and no... they're not in cahoots with them.
lol @ cahoots

Just a funny word.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:50 AM   #3846
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Will save everyone time

Expected Riggedologist reply:

Well, this "proves" the site rigs it because by keeping money in the fish's hands longer they stay at the table longer so more seats are being filled.

Regulars will just reload when they lose, but fish may leave when they get busted so that is why they rig it so they bust slower.

How? Eh, who knows, riggedology is not meant to handle details like that - it just gets done that is all that matters. Now that we know we have to make theories work toward more seats being filled, we can adapt.

That and the Russians are behind it.

Or the Lizard People.

Good night.
I think it is a valid point though. I'm pretty sure that's why no-limit games weren't popular until relatively recently; because a cap on the buy-in wasn't standard in the old games, so fish would buy in for their roll every time (because obviously they had to match the stack size of everyone else at the table!) bust too quickly, realize they can't afford it, and just stop playing. Without the fish, the games died. So people stuck to limit. I think there's a 2+2 article about this.

But again, obviously the cons for rigging it this way outweigh the potential (not even guaranteed) pros, and described in spade's post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by toltec444 View Post
Another thing: Its not about "fish may leave when they get busted ". You dont need that fish may leave. In the large and long run scale there are two kind of players, the one who will win money and the ones who will get broke and stop playing. They will stop playing because they have no more money to play with, not because tey get angry.
You're leaving out an important fact: most casual players have an income from which they can draw from month after month to keep playing.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:57 AM   #3847
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

The basic ideas of my theory are good, but it has big problems as spadebidder pointed out.

He says that the small changes in the EV of hands that I suggest in my model are too small to make a good profit for the site, mainly if we take into account the risk of getting caught and losing the hole business.

Thats a big problem because my model presents a way to keep more players playing longer in the poker rooms. And that would be achievable through changes in the EV fo hands.


If spadebidder is right about his statemant, and the profit is too low with the small changes in the EV my model requires, it doesn´t work.


I believe his doing a statistical analisys of big database. That will be helpfull to clarify things.
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Old 05-28-2009, 01:01 AM   #3848
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

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Originally Posted by DMoogle View Post
I think it is a valid point though. I'm pretty sure that's why no-limit games weren't popular until relatively recently; because a cap on the buy-in wasn't standard in the old games, so fish would buy in for their roll every time (because obviously they had to match the stack size of everyone else at the table!) bust too quickly, realize they can't afford it, and just stop playing. Without the fish, the games died. So people stuck to limit. I think there's a 2+2 article about this.

But again, obviously the cons for rigging it this way outweigh the potential (not even guaranteed) pros, and described in spade's post.


You're leaving out an important fact: most casual players have an income from which they can draw from month after month to keep playing.

Yes, but that is the large scale and long run logic applied to a month scale. People have a month money they will spend on poker, and for that month they will be "broke". The logic of "the longer they get to go broke more rake for the site" still applies.
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Old 05-28-2009, 01:12 AM   #3849
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Re: PokerStars SCAM

[QUOTE]The reason i'm writting this ripoff report is because I feel that everyone should know this about Pokerstars before playing with their online poker program./QUOTE]

I stopped reading after the first sentence....
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Old 05-28-2009, 02:18 AM   #3850
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

playing online poker for the last 5 years it seems like after you deposit you get good cards and after you win for a while it goes away.
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