this has all happened in the last 10 minutes after a mod press on pokerstars. In fact keeping track of these for the last 6 months its amazing ones sudden and immediate bad run of luck after sarcastic emails and mod prsses on pokerstars. Its pretty scary. I know I know * thats poker* Just anotherr bad run of sudden luck after mod presses on pokerstars. Let me go read there integrity statement so I feel better! Random yes. If this pattern hasnt happend for over a year here which I have been keeping percise track of on another computer with the help of a computer/numbers savy friend I wouldn't quite believe it myself..)



Dealt to foldemFedero [Qd As]
Fischer666: raises 40 to 80
foldemFedero: raises 850 to 930 and is all-in
Fischer666: calls 850
*** FLOP *** [Ts 2s 9d]
*** TURN *** [Ts 2s 9d] [3c]
*** RIVER *** [Ts 2s 9d 3c] [Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
foldemFedero: shows [Qd As] (high card Ace)
Fischer666: shows [Qh Ks] (a straight, Nine to King)
Fischer666 collected 1860 from pot
foldemFedero finished the tournament in 2nd plac


Dealt to foldemFedero [9c 9h]
iori_dimitri: calls 40
foldemFedero: raises 240 to 320
iori_dimitri: raises 1108 to 1428 and is all-in
foldemFedero: calls 1108
*** FLOP *** [Kc 4c Ac]
*** TURN *** [Kc 4c Ac] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [Kc 4c Ac Js] [Qs]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
foldemFedero: shows [9c 9h] (a pair of Nines)
iori_dimitri: shows [As 5c] (a pair of Aces)
iori_dimitri collected 2856 from pot


Dealt to foldemFedero [Ks Kd]
foldemFedero: raises 20 to 40
tribleplayer: raises 320 to 360
foldemFedero: raises 1040 to 1400 and is all-in
tribleplayer: calls 1040
*** FLOP *** [6h 2d 4d]
*** TURN *** [6h 2d 4d] [Ah]
*** RIVER *** [6h 2d 4d Ah] [8s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tribleplayer: shows [As 3d] (a pair of Aces)
foldemFedero: shows [Ks Kd] (a pair of Kings)
tribleplayer collected 2800 from pot


Dealt to foldemFedero [Qd As]
Fischer666: raises 40 to 80
foldemFedero: raises 850 to 930 and is all-in
Fischer666: calls 850
*** FLOP *** [Ts 2s 9d]
*** TURN *** [Ts 2s 9d] [3c]
*** RIVER *** [Ts 2s 9d 3c] [Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
foldemFedero: shows [Qd As] (high card Ace)
Fischer666: shows [Qh Ks] (a straight, Nine to King)
Fischer666 collected 1860 from pot


Dealt to foldemFedero [Qd Qc]
foldemFedero: raises 60 to 90
RikAfonso: raises 210 to 300
foldemFedero: raises 520 to 820 and is all-in
RikAfonso: calls 520
*** FLOP *** [3c 4h Ah]
*** TURN *** [3c 4h Ah] [6d]
*** RIVER *** [3c 4h Ah 6d] [9h]
RikAfonso said, "ouch"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RikAfonso: shows [9s Ac] (two pair, Aces and Nines)
foldemFedero: shows [Qd Qc] (a pair of Queens)


Dealt to foldemFedero [Kd Kc]
foldemFedero: raises $1 to $1.50
vitinja: raises $8.50 to $10 and has reached the $10 cap
foldemFedero: calls $6.85 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($1.65) returned to vitinja
*** FLOP *** [5s Ts 9s]
*** TURN *** [5s Ts 9s] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [5s Ts 9s 7d] [8s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
vitinja: shows [2c As] (a flush, Ace high)
foldemFedero: shows [Kd Kc] (a pair of King

I mean this is one months worth of beats live all after a mod press within 10 minutes.. Same as yesterday. And the day before. Pretty sad what the **** goes on on the * big sites* I can only imagine the smaller ones

tl;dr:

Problem: Sending sarcastic emails or pressing the mod button on PS results in an immediate and severe doomswitching.

Proposed solution: Do not send sarcastic emails or press the mod button on PS.

Doctor, it hurts when I hold my arm like this.

Consider yourself kicked.

[QUOTE=delta6788;27344859]] You riggies are the biggest bunch of idiots in the poker world!

Kid, don't sell yourself short! Its a very close race from where I stand.

I disagree, I believed I proved more earnings than your lifetime online profit with two live tournament results.

I notice you don't say my house. Really, be honest - it's MOMMY'S HOUSE. Where you play in the basement, piss in a bottle and eat day old pizza. Have you ever paid a gas, electric or water bill in your life, let alone a mortgage payment? It's rhetorical, don't answer.

By that fact.... ah another one of your theories based on actual factual premises.... Grinding: the only way to have any achievements in this game.... another fine theory, kid.

I bring it up to show you your lost opportunity cost of how you grind a "living" at poker. Go to Wikipedia, look it up and maybe, just maybe, you will understand my point.


Now that prediction is just ****ing hysterical. New poker boom......

I guess I would rather have an outgoing expense than be one (ask your Mom, she will understand). It's actually a BMW and I got the underwear from your Mom's drawer and it fit my 220 lb ass, plus it feels soooo sexy.

Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me. Look at me.

Not even enough to pay off my AMEX this month.

Boom.....we have to put this in the vault and revisit it in a year. Classic.

You supplied a good answer for how the rig might be detected. The table that you posted after that raises a question though.

For illustrating the concept of detection the table seems fine, but as a realistic example of the extent of distortion that might be intentionally induced it is rather extreme because it seems like people might really be able to see it without any analyis. You show 12 people in the middle range and then 400 in the 0-10% and 30-40% ranges.

So what? Well earlier you made a sweeping statement that implied that statistical significance was largely synonymous with monetary significance, and thus any relevance whatsoever. I can't immediately agree or disagree with this notion.

The implications of that essentially seem to be that the RNG cannot be realistically rigged no matter who devises a scheme, be it someone with rudimentary knowledge such as myself or a team of experts.

Wiki, your answer was essentially that first you identify the rig, then test for it with millions of hand histories and it will stick out like a sore thumb. In theory you have answered the question but have not provided any practical method of proving it within any SD.

How do you identify the rig to test? How would you prove my proposed rig? What is your starting point to crunch the data?

Unless you are conceding to blantantlyrigged and can just see it because it is so obvious, you have answered in theory only.

FTP suspended... Money gone for good... Epic Ultimate rig...

gg FTP... nice bluff

/thread

That was a statement of logic, and thus anyone is free to disagree with it if they want to point out why it is not logical.

What I was saying was that to say that the rig is of significance to anyone it would surely be necessary to demonstrate that they had demonstrably gained or lost.

i.e. That you could not prove that a site was rigging the deal to favour some group of 50% of players at the expense of the rest to the extent of 1c per player per month.

One of the limits in detecting a rig is that you can't do it if the effect is swamped by normal variance in play.

Rather in the way that you could not realistically suggest a shop worker was dishonest if you were short changed once but could if you were short changed once a month over the course of two years but were never given too much change.

Yes, sort of.

It would be possible to rig it but it would be detectable if it was done to an extent that was demonstrably disadvantageous to someone.

The problem with so many of the riggie claims is that they are saying that they are detecting something disadvantageous to themselves but are never able to provide evidence.

The fact that you need to identify some specific rig is the very root of the problem of not being able to prove, conclusively, that OLP is not rigged.

I provided an outline of a method that would show the rig suggested by 14cobster. To provide working code would take thousands of lines of rather arcane programming.

Again, that is the main problem.

Sorry, which is your proposed rig?

I only answered for 14cobsters.

I can only answer that with a specification of the rig in question. If you reiterate your rig I will provide you an overview of how you would go about detecting it.

I was only attempting to answer in theory.

From the theory, however, it should be obvious that someone could programme an actual check and thus the rig is not undetectable.

My only purpose was to show that the rig was not undetectable in principle.

All of the repeated claims that these "island regulators" are just token agencies with no authority and are in the pocket of the poker sites, just got 100% disproven this morning with the shutdown of Full Tilt Poker. About 8 hours ago Alderney pulled their license, and Full Tilt had to shut down all worldwide operations (for now). Zero players on site.

Seems that AGCC has some power after all.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29...alted-1059820/

----
In before a dozen numbskulls say this proves they were rigged.

Your redundancy seems to suggest that you are perhaps rather inconclusive. Also, you do not make any comment on whether variance can mask a rig that was nonetheless relevant.

Sorry, I don't understand what you mean by that.

I'm trying to do whatever is necessary to explain how you would detect the rig you came up with.

If you don't think it is well enough explained, please state the problem and I will refine the answer.

That is a function of sample size.

Even if you only rigged one hand in a million, you would still be able to detect the result if you had a sample of a trillion hands.

Conversely, if you rigged one hand in ten, you would not be able to detect it in a sample of one hundred.

But he sees a pattern in the thread that gives him insight into peoples playing output and stakes. Thats like hard evidence.

I don't know if I would agree with your conclusion or your 100% disproven calculation. Alderney only acted after the DOJ conduct on BF and FT has been operating for the last 2 months without indicating a plan to pay back its customers. As a regulating entity, they have more power than just pulling a license, but have failed to exercise their power. Pulling the license may simply be another nail in the coffin...

Eventually, with these types of relationships (like our S&L bailout), when the government entity starts to be embarrassed, the private entity always gets kicked to the curb. Someone at the AGCC will be blamed as well.

I will be interested to see how long it takes for FT to get back up and running, fully licensed from another island regulator or tribal community. Or if they simply go bankrupt and fold.

ROFLMAO!

It's like one of those sci-fi programmes where one person gets split in two.

One becomes the die hard riggie who is convinced he sees patterns in the deal and one becomes a die hard shill who becomes convinced he sees patterns in peoples posting/playing habits.

Perhaps if we could get monty and blatantly rigged to merge in a transporter we would have a well adjusted individual who did not believe they could detect any non existent patterns.

Sorry, bit busy today, but a quick comment.

Exposure to literally thousands of players and coaching and staking applications have earned me a lot of experience in knowing what I am dealing with in terms of what type of player a person is simply by how he posts with regard to poker.

Guys like you and Wiki are clearly very casual players from how you post as are many of the other shills (but I actually respect their opinions so I don't trivialize them for this like I do for you two). If you want me to prove you are a casual player I will simply cite my considerable experience in being able to identify what people are from their perspective of the industry.

Am I right 100% of the time? Nope, but I am right pretty close, and all it takes is for you or Wiki or a riggie to prove me wrong by showing me that you are not what I say or riggies are not what I say. So far, I am basically 100% in that as well, and you are free to search the thread to prove that wrong.

Riggies are fairly simple creatures that fall in a few categories:

- Emotional bad beat whiners

These are not genuine riggies, all they are are the guy that has to whine every time he loses a hand. We all know players like this and every loss is as if the world was against them. They will say all sorts of random stuff like that foldem guy is now whenever they lose, but they do not really care or believe it's rigged, that is a simple venting process, nothing more. Foldem is a real grinder so he keeps grinding and when he wins he does not whine.


- Genuine riggies

These guys do often play, but a fairly casual volume, usually under 20 MTTs a week and at relatively low buy ins. Every single genuine riggie so far has fit this category, and that is frustrating because I want to find a genuine riggie who is not whining about freerolls because that will be a riggie I can work with in helping create a more logical riggie theory. These nanostake guys need it to be rigged to screw them out of 10 cents and I cannot come up with any logical system that would do that.


- Bonus whores

A few of the riggies are guys who did the bonus whoring thing and made money even though they never had to learn poker. Many failed to improve and when the bonuses slowed down and the games got tougher they started blaming the system when all it was was their niche was ending. Again, not pure riggies though some may believe it is rigged.



The shills come in a few categories as well


Douches - Wiki is the obvious example, and a couple others pop in now and then who fit this category

Arrogant Dicks - My posting character in this thread for the most part, and it is nice to see jjj working on it from the riggie side


Nice guys/Stats guys - Arouet/spadebidder/Pyro etc These guys do try to help the riggies but eventually they realize that is a pointless task. Arouet is one of the last holdouts in this regard :P


Real players - Lego, NFUego and a couple others - these guys get offended when inane riggies mock the hard work they do by dismissing the validity of the games. I can relate to this and feel it to once in a while.


Both sides also have people who actually post mainly for entertainment value as well, and that is what this thread is - entertainment.


I openly admit to using this thread for self serving purposes, and some fun in seeing how I can mix things up at times. Shill boycotts, tossing riggies at the stats guys, and my latest thing was going to be helping the riggies argue with the shills, but truth be told I simply will not have time given the recent turn of events at Tilt (which as evil as it sounds is a great opportunity for many players while also being a harsh new reality to others as well) to finish that little project. The whole little chat with you Batair (and talking with you is unfortunately quite boring as I mentioned) was to try to serve that agenda.


You and Wiki can yammer on about how experience does not matter in these areas, but that was never the actual point. The point was to get the riggies to realize that switching from a "what do you shills get paid?" to a "you shills do not even play, LOL!" tactic will be much more effective and will be a nice change of pace for the thread. Whether they do it or not is their choice, as after this post I will have to take some time off to do some real work for a while :P.


Anyway, carry on as you no doubt will, and likely I will see you in the next lull of activity in this industry. For those who want to see what our assessment was of Tilt, UB et. al you can check our site for an update in the next couple days about that as well, but needless to say we were well prepared for what happened today like we were for Black Friday.


Have fun shills and riggies, think of all the new Tilt rigged theories that will come out now!!

All the best.

Until Black Friday, I doubted that any of the bigger sites rigged their RNG's. Now I wonder because it seems to me that FTP and Cereus were not intended by their owners to be a long term business. After Black Friday, Cereus has virtually disappeared. FTP refused to pay its US players, failed to promptly pay many non-US players and now its licensed is suspended.

OTOH, as many on this forum point out, how could a larger site rig its RNG without skilled mathematicians like Spadebidder being able to detect it. The only way that I could figure that a site could rig its RNG in a manner that no player could detect it would be to have two RNG programs. The fair and random program would be used for all preflop deal and all flops. It would also be used for any all in hands. But for the turn and river in non-all in hands a rigged RNG would be substituted to slightly benefit the underdog after the flop. IMO, the only way to detect this rigging would be to know all the players' hands and properly audit all hand histories. Because someone like Spadebidder could not know the cards in non-showdown hands, it would be nearly impossible to tell if flush draws hit slightly more than they should. Of course, since Poker Stars does not reshuffle its decks after the preflop deal, I believe that its deals are fair and random. I don't believe that it could lie about not reshuffling after the deal and get audits of its RNG program.

I have much less confidence for FTP, Cereus and the other US online poker sites. None have ever presented audits of hand histories.

Since I can no longer play on PS, I have decided not to have over $500 on any US site and to only play for low stakes for fun (NL10). I will continue this policy until sites licensed by a US state gambling commission open for business. IMO, such sites will eventually have to provide audits of hand histories to prove the fairness of their RNG programs to state regulators; something no current online poker site has ever released.

In fact, I consider this aspect and safety of players money, the only good aspects of potential US regulation.

See, there's three kinds of people: dicks, pussies, and aholes. Pussies think everyone can get along, and dicks just want to **** all the time without thinking it through. But then you got your aholes, Chuck. And all the aholes want us to sh** all over everything! So, pussies may get mad at dicks once in a while, because pussies get ****ed by dicks. But dicks also **** aholes, Chuck. And if they didn't **** the aholes, you know what you'd get? You'd get your dick and your pussy all covered in sh**!

Anyone wanna consider now that it may have been rigged so you go on a downswing after a big cash out. Always seemed to happen to me and before the trolls post it no im not a losing player. Just always had sick downswings after cash outs. I always used to joke about it with friends that i would have to go through my run bad punishment for cashing out.

It is now obvious FTP executives are willing to break myriad laws as well as engage in ethical behavior that is highly suspect. Why would such concerns now be completely warranted? GREAT POST OP! Maybe the tin foil hats don't seem so ridiculous now.

We have all been part of one of the greatest hustles of the information age. Let's not continue to live in ignorance. FTP had some damn funny things happening over the last year or so. WE HAVE ALL EXPERIENCED IT! It's time for everyone to apologize to the so called conspiracy theorists. It was their version of reality, as we are finding out, that most closely reflected the truth. FTP was a scam that would stop at nothing to get your money, by any means necessary. ACCEPT THAT THERE ARE MORE ANGLES HERE!!!

You are probably one of the same people that said lets ban the op when the guy said full tilt would be shutting down on june 29th. How did that ban work out for ya? Such an ignorant dope.