I will tell a little about me. I started playing hold em about five years ago and I only played on B2B (Entraction). My first 100 euro deposited went fast to 50 (bad play) and then I moved down in stakes and tried to learn the game. Now I have winnings of 10k+ euros so I am not a complete fish.
I am educated in statistics at the university (30 points, 40 points full year) and am a certified Java programmer. I can also program in other languages. Have a one year programming course and 20 points computer science). These are not my main subjects, but wanted to let u know that I have some knowledge in this area.
At the time I started playing at 24hpoker they had a lot of freerolls with good value so that was also a way to build a roll. After my first 50 euro loss I played small stakes for a long time and I only played cash games and freerolls.
My first account was T on 24hpoker. Since I didn't get any rake back I moved to 10bet. I was also sick of the "bad luck" and wanted to see if an account change would be different. There I created the account B and they had nice rake back. 10Bet also had a lot of freerolls with very good value. After that I created the account S. With all these three accounts I made money through freerolls. I also created the account D on Martinspoker.
With all these four accounts I played a lot of freerolls and occasionally cash games so I guess my ROI was very high on these accounts.
When I had played more than one year on account T I started to be suspicious since I thought the underdog won "too many times". I called it the "small stack rig", but it is probably a fish helping rig. Help the small stack so the game continues, help the fish so the game continues. It is nearly the same idea.
I didn't know how to check it out, since I had no knowledge about poker tracking software etc. When I had too much bad luck on all of these accounts I started writing about this in a swedish pokerforum, where nearly all called me a moron. There were representatives from sites "proving" it wasn't rigged, a few agreed with me and most did not.
I came across PokerEV (thanks Phil) and decided to do an investigation that didn't cost too much in risking money but was played by somewhat thinking poker players. So I decided to play 3 euro sit'n'gos and calculate allins before river. U have to manually edit the hand history, else poker tracker thinks it is play money.
I played with five accounts, but mainly I used three. I had S on PointPoker, didn't use this so much since I lost my money. I had B on Betsson, no rake back so I didnt use this either. Although I love Betsson I love rake back more. D on 24hpoker, which was D on Martinspoker before. D on Pinnacle with nice rake back the next day. and J on CardGrinders.
OK, I mainly played with three accounts. D, which I had and played a lot of freerolls with, D which I also played a lot of freerolls with and J which I didn't play any freerolls with.
In the beginning I played mostly with account J and to my surprise the allin luck was "normal". For u who know about PokerEV the luck was about 50 % which meant that u "got what u deserved". Had I been wrong all the time. Was my "bad luck" just a coincidence?
I also played with the other accounts and there it was impossible to win in "luck situations" (allin before river). I have continued to play sit'n'gos for about two years now and nothing has changed. Some accounts (the high ROI freeroll accounts have bad luck) and the no freeroll account has normal allin luck.
Here are graphs of all the accounts. Don't mind the sums, some are small and some are high. Focus on the percentage of the allin luck and the relation of the Sklansky bucks curve and the actual winnings curve.
First account T cashgames and freerolls.
http://imageshack.us/f/18/tompa.jpg
and the normal distribution
(P=19,6%)
http://imageshack.us/f/818/tompanormal.jpg
These graphs show that I was right in my suspicion that I had been unlucky, although the bad luck wasn't extreme.
The account B cash games and freerolls.
http://imageshack.us/f/135/boostn.jpg
and the normal distribution
(P=29,7%)
http://imageshack.us/f/193/boostnormal.jpg
The account D at Martinspoker freerolls and cash games.
http://imageshack.us/f/812/martins.jpg
The normal distribution for this account.
(11 %)
http://imageshack.us/f/69/martinsnormal.jpg
Another account S at this time cashgames and freerolls.
http://imageshack.us/f/200/suger.jpg
and the normal distribution.
(P=2,6%)
http://imageshack.us/f/716/sugernormal.jpg
And the sitngos accounts
Pinny with a lot of freeroll money and therefore high ROI.
http://imageshack.us/f/31/pinny.jpg
and the normal distribution
(P=1,9%)
http://imageshack.us/f/32/pinnynormal.jpg
D with a lot of freeroll money and therefore high ROI.
http://imageshack.us/f/190/damnu.jpg
and the normal distribution
(P=2,2%)
http://imageshack.us/f/864/damnormal.jpg
And J on CG with no freeroll money won and woops the allin luck is normal.
http://imageshack.us/f/40/48347724.jpg
and the normal distribution
(P=57,8%)
http://imageshack.us/f/834/cgnormal.jpg
And finally the five sit'n'go accounts in one graph.
http://imageshack.us/f/546/fivem.jpg
And the normal distribution.
(P=1,2%)
http://imageshack.us/f/219/fivenormal.jpg
One way to check my results would be to invite a third party to play with two of my accounts and see if the "bad luck" continues. That would be really interesting.
(This is not the original post. I have done my best to restore the post as it originally was).