Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > > >

Discussion of Poker Sites General discussion of online poker sites.

View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes 3,444 34.94%
No 5,522 56.02%
Undecided 892 9.05%
Voters: 9858. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-03-2009, 10:07 PM   #3051
spadebidder
Actually Shows Proof
 
spadebidder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,906
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by senjitsu View Post
just curious what are the 46 hands in the 4%-6% range... 3 way all ins?
Realize those are the same 46 matchups shown for the 94-96% range. They are two opponents, one with 4-6% equity and the other with 94-96% equity.

The only matchups in that range are pair vs same high card dominated, such as QQ vs Q2o or KK vs K2o or JJ vs J2o. It could also be QQ/Q3 or KK/K3 if the 3 matches one of the favorite's suits. They all have to be one of those. The underdogs are all just under 6%. None of them are 3-way. That would be possible with QQ vs Q2o vs Q2o but the counts would show the difference. Since they match (46) they are all two way hands.

Last edited by spadebidder; 05-03-2009 at 10:16 PM.
spadebidder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 03:16 AM   #3052
senjitsu
banned
 
senjitsu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: λαγχάν
Posts: 3,058
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
Realize those are the same 46 matchups shown for the 94-96% range. They are two opponents, one with 4-6% equity and the other with 94-96% equity.

The only matchups in that range are pair vs same high card dominated, such as QQ vs Q2o or KK vs K2o or JJ vs J2o. It could also be QQ/Q3 or KK/K3 if the 3 matches one of the favorite's suits. They all have to be one of those. The underdogs are all just under 6%. None of them are 3-way. That would be possible with QQ vs Q2o vs Q2o but the counts would show the difference. Since they match (46) they are all two way hands.
interesting, the only pp dominated hands ive ever bothered to run odds for are ones that connect enough to make a straight (which usually in the 8-10% range). But a quick check of your example shows that they can indeed go as low as 4 percent or so.
senjitsu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 10:27 AM   #3053
Bingo_Boy
old hand
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 1,872
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Username^^ View Post
omg .. was running so good in 22, in top20 most of the time, than i get this AK mp, i raise got reraised. I think for a while and decide to call. Flop Axx 2 clubs, i check he shoves i call. He had QQ .. Q on the river. Ok, no big deal its only 1/3rd of my stack. Few hands later i get QQ, a small stack shoves, i reraise all in everyone folds, he has 77 good i thought, i have him dominated .. But **** manages to turn the seven .. WTF ?? Ok never mind, its only 200 people left till money and i am still in top600. 4 hands later i get KK in sb then i told to my friend look this is my last hand. Early pos raise, i reraised he shoved and i called. Ofcourse, he has an overpair. So, from being in top20 to going out in less than 30 hands. Not bad ..
The thread is finally getting some sensible analysis and intelligent discussion and most of the rigtards soon go quiet. Its nice to have a little story though, thanks.
Bingo_Boy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 11:45 AM   #3054
Monteroy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 14,055
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo_Boy View Post
The thread is finally getting some sensible analysis and intelligent discussion and most of the rigtards soon go quiet. Its nice to have a little story though, thanks.
He just likes chatting for the sake of chatting and belonging, so who knows if he is a rigtard or not. Not sure he even cares whether sites are rigged.

However, true hard core rigged believers will never let go of their beliefs regardless of the data presented in the face of what they "know" which is their right. Maybe they will adjust their rigged beliefs a bit in reaction (ie: sure the data falls within expected results but the sites carefully let "fish" magically win more - that type of thing).

It is still interesting to see the large data results though.
Monteroy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 01:32 PM   #3055
spadebidder
Actually Shows Proof
 
spadebidder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,906
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
However, true hard core rigged believers will never let go of their beliefs regardless of the data presented in the face of what they "know" which is their right. Maybe they will adjust their rigged beliefs a bit in reaction (ie: sure the data falls within expected results but the sites carefully let "fish" magically win more - that type of thing).

It is still interesting to see the large data results though.
With Indiana's plan to set up an ftp site with a large hand database, and provide software to analyse it, more and more rigged theories are going to get shot down.

See http://pokerftp.com/index_files/Page300.htm

Files can't be downloaded yet, but soon. For non-qualified researchers, you'll be able to download a few million hands to experiment and perfect the query you are interested in, then get the site (Indiana) to run it against the full database. They currently have 1 billion and hope to get 10 billion before long. They also will allow you to separate by site, but they won't identify the respective sites.
spadebidder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 05:14 PM   #3056
Monteroy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 14,055
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder View Post
With Indiana's plan to set up an ftp site with a large hand database, and provide software to analyse it, more and more rigged theories are going to get shot down.

See http://pokerftp.com/index_files/Page300.htm

Files can't be downloaded yet, but soon. For non-qualified researchers, you'll be able to download a few million hands to experiment and perfect the query you are interested in, then get the site (Indiana) to run it against the full database. They currently have 1 billion and hope to get 10 billion before long. They also will allow you to separate by site, but they won't identify the respective sites.
I respect your statistical expertise, but I can assure you that the odds of hard core rigged believers ever changing their views are much , much smaller then you suspect. You are using logic as a guide, but that is not the same handbook they use to form their beliefs.

Speak to a conspiracy addict for 5 to 10 minutes and you will see that no matter what evidence or logic or proof you offer, all that will happen is that they will at most adjust their theories to incorporate the results (:ie sure Stars sets up the games to look fair but they choose who will win - prove that wrong for example). A real life conspiracy guy recently told me "mind control" when all else failed to explain some evil doings - good luck disproving that... The other choice is they will assume you are a "shill" in on it.

That said, the results are still good to see and no doubt they will help some realize that perhaps the games are in fact dealt in a fair manner, and it is good to see those actually capable of doing proper statistical analysis looking at this.
Monteroy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 05:25 PM   #3057
maryannman
banned
 
maryannman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: racist Black America
Posts: 127
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

how would they go about rigging against one player?

Their just picking on you - Poker Stars AND FullTilt, so you p.o.'d Chris furgeson and Danny Negranaeu at some private meeting and now their out to get you. You didnt mention that in your Bad Beat post. Look up "variance" it's part of the game.
maryannman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 05:41 PM   #3058
Username^^
veteran
 
Username^^'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reviewing hands in my dreams
Posts: 2,784
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by maryannman View Post
how would they go about rigging against one player?

Their just picking on you - Poker Stars AND FullTilt, so you p.o.'d Chris furgeson and Danny Negranaeu at some private meeting and now their out to get you. You didnt mention that in your Bad Beat post. Look up "variance" it's part of the game.
Who are you dude ? And wtf does that supose to mean ? Your post is like Coca-Cola+Beer+Mashed Potatoe+Redbull+Carrot Juice.
Username^^ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 07:41 PM   #3059
BitterChris
adept
 
BitterChris's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Bittertown, USA
Posts: 831
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

After taking my latest bad beat, I realized that online every other allin is a bad beat - what's up with that? Just like on TV, except on TV they edit out most of the hands where the dominating favorite wins. Flopped TPTK and NFD and got checkraised allin by MPPK and of course he rivers a T as a ~9-1 dog. You always have a sweat online - what's it gonna be this time, the backdoor flush, running straight cards, two board pairs over my pocket pair for a high-card win?

This weekend I was in a $600 pot with AA vs KK allin preflop and wasn't even worried. Flopped an ace and that was that. Online you can NEVER be comfortable.

I guess we'll just have to declare an armistice - you guys can have the math, and I'll take the money. While you may be "pot equity millionaires" with disabled cashout buttons I'll be swimming in Scrooge McDuck-like piles of chips, which I can use to buy things like currant jelly and rhubarb pie.



So long for now, stay tuned for my farepoorly address.

- Bitterness is joy with a bad attitude
BitterChris is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 08:08 PM   #3060
KingOfFelt
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
KingOfFelt's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: West Coast
Posts: 7,233
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by BitterChris View Post

This weekend I was in a $600 pot with AA vs KK allin preflop and wasn't even worried. Flopped an ace and that was that. Online you can NEVER be comfortable.

So you are saying live play is rigged. As in Aces always hold up in this situation even though they should lose about 20% of the time?
KingOfFelt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 09:10 PM   #3061
dbcooper279
old hand
 
dbcooper279's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Under 23ft of water
Posts: 1,678
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Chris, where do you play live? I might have to make a special trip to put some live bad beats on you.
dbcooper279 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 09:14 PM   #3062
Username^^
veteran
 
Username^^'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reviewing hands in my dreams
Posts: 2,784
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Everyone just do like me, i exclude my self for 3 days after series of bad beats. It is a second time i am doing this, and i played 2 days in a week ... It doesnt mean that you will get less bad beats, but atleast you have some time to think with a clear head before taking another beat and broking a monitor (2 monitors in less than a month).
Username^^ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 09:22 PM   #3063
BucketFoot
grinder
 
BucketFoot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Boston
Posts: 500
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

rigged
BucketFoot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 09:28 PM   #3064
ShovingStation
journeyman
 
ShovingStation's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Southern Hemisphere
Posts: 248
Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PLAYOFFS View Post
life is rigged, get over it
qft
ShovingStation is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 09:37 PM   #3065
otatop
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: unstuckpolitics.com
Posts: 12,727
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Username^^ View Post
Everyone just do like me, i exclude my self for 3 days after series of bad beats. It is a second time i am doing this, and i played 2 days in a week ... It doesnt mean that you will get less bad beats, but atleast you have some time to think with a clear head before taking another beat and broking a monitor (2 monitors in less than a month).
Frequent self exclusions are a good way to get banned for being a potential problem gambler on some sites.
otatop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 11:26 PM   #3066
BitterChris
adept
 
BitterChris's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Bittertown, USA
Posts: 831
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbcooper279 View Post
Chris, where do you play live? I might have to make a special trip to put some live bad beats on you.
Cache creek in CA. The Feds will be waiting for you,
BitterChris is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2009, 11:33 PM   #3067
dbcooper279
old hand
 
dbcooper279's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Under 23ft of water
Posts: 1,678
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by BitterChris View Post
The Feds will be waiting for you,
I'm one of them......
dbcooper279 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2009, 11:12 PM   #3068
webiggy
grinder
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 408
Wink Here's one for the "Online Poker is Rigged" conspiracy theorists

If I didn't see this for myself, I wouldn't believe it. This happened late in a $2 tounrey in consecutive hands (about 100 players from the money). Is it bad play with luck being the whore that she is? Probably... Is it a big stack looking to capitalize on pushes? - maybe...But this sort of thing gets you shaking your head.

I would never believe that the site is rigging play, but you gotta wonder about packet stealers ;-) I have seen a rash of these types of plays as of late...

PokerStars Game #27907848265: Tournament #160529646, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2009/05/06 22:43:58 ET
Table '160529646 15' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Martinelli80 (18532 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero (3793 in chips)
Seat 3: whattheblip (7180 in chips)
Seat 4: jakey1118 (9564 in chips)
Seat 5: grayszoo (26503 in chips)
Seat 6: VoltUk (7425 in chips)
Seat 7: ytown17 (23635 in chips)
Seat 8: rhino0623 (14445 in chips)
Seat 9: movieman123 (6453 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [9c 8h]
VoltUk: calls 400
ytown17: folds
rhino0623: raises 1600 to 2000
movieman123: raises 4403 to 6403 and is all-in
Martinelli80: calls 6403
Hero: folds
whattheblip: folds
jakey1118: folds
grayszoo: folds
VoltUk: folds
rhino0623: raises 7992 to 14395 and is all-in
Martinelli80: calls 7992
*** FLOP *** [4c Ad Jc]
*** TURN *** [4c Ad Jc] [8s]
*** RIVER *** [4c Ad Jc 8s] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
rhino0623: shows [Kd Kh] (a pair of Kings)
Martinelli80: shows [2h Jh] (two pair, Jacks and Deuces)
Martinelli80 collected 15984 from side pot
movieman123: shows [Ac Kc] (a pair of Aces)
Martinelli80 collected 20659 from main pot
JFS1986 is connected


PokerStars Game #27907880845: Tournament #160529646, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2009/05/06 22:45:09 ET
Table '160529646 15' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Martinelli80 (40730 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero (3743 in chips)
Seat 3: whattheblip (7130 in chips)
Seat 4: jakey1118 (9314 in chips)
Seat 5: grayszoo (26053 in chips)
Seat 6: VoltUk (6975 in chips)
Seat 7: ytown17 (23585 in chips)
Seat 9: JFS1986 (12220 in chips)

grayszoo: posts small blind 200
VoltUk: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Jc Ah]
ytown17: folds
JFS1986: raises 800 to 1200
Martinelli80: calls 1200
Hero: raises 2493 to 3693 and is all-in

whattheblip: folds
jakey1118: folds
grayszoo: folds
VoltUk: folds
JFS1986: raises 8477 to 12170 and is all-in
Martinelli80: calls 10970
*** FLOP *** [9h 6c 6h]
*** TURN *** [9h 6c 6h] [Qs]
*** RIVER *** [9h 6c 6h Qs] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JFS1986: shows [Th Ac] (a pair of Sixes)
Martinelli80: shows [8s Tc] (two pair, Eights and Sixes)
Martinelli80 collected 16954 from side pot
Hero: shows [Jc Ah] (a pair of Sixes)
Martinelli80 collected 12079 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 29033 Main pot 12079. Side pot 16954. | Rake 0
Board [9h 6c 6h Qs 8c]
Seat 1: Martinelli80 showed [8s Tc] and won (29033) with two pair, Eights and Sixes
Seat 2: Hero showed [Jc Ah] and lost with a pair of Sixes
Seat 9: JFS1986 showed [Th Ac] and lost with a pair of Sixes

Makes you want to drink...

Last edited by webiggy; 05-06-2009 at 11:20 PM.
webiggy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2009, 11:15 PM   #3069
Pokerdemic
old hand
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Rolling in G-bucks
Posts: 1,238
Re: Here's one for the "Online Poker is Rigged" conspiracy theorists

Send this to the press. And call your local government representatives. Consumers need protection from this type of thing.
Pokerdemic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2009, 11:20 PM   #3070
KingOfFelt
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
KingOfFelt's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: West Coast
Posts: 7,233
Re: Here's one for the "Online Poker is Rigged" conspiracy theorists

Probably should have been posted in BBV.
KingOfFelt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2009, 11:21 PM   #3071
webiggy
grinder
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 408
Re: Here's one for the "Online Poker is Rigged" conspiracy theorists

Oh yeah - this one happened three hands before...

PokerStars Game #27907776596: Tournament #160529646, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2009/05/06 22:41:23 ET
Table '160529646 15' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Martinelli80 (8541 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero (11584 in chips)
Seat 3: whattheblip (7930 in chips)
Seat 4: jakey1118 (10114 in chips)
Seat 5: grayszoo (25603 in chips)
Seat 6: VoltUk (8775 in chips)
Seat 7: ytown17 (23785 in chips)
Seat 8: rhino0623 (14595 in chips)
Seat 9: movieman123 (6603 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Kd Ac]
whattheblip: folds
jakey1118: folds
grayszoo: raises 800 to 1200
VoltUk: calls 1200
ytown17: folds
rhino0623: folds
movieman123: folds
Martinelli80: calls 1000
Hero: raises 10334 to 11534 and is all-in

grayszoo: folds
VoltUk: folds
Martinelli80: calls 7291 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (3043) returned to hero
*** FLOP *** [4d 9h Kh]
*** TURN *** [4d 9h Kh] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [4d 9h Kh Tc] [Jc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Martinelli80: shows [Kc Qd] (a straight, Nine to King)
hero: shows [Kd Ac] (a pair of Kings)
Martinelli80 collected 19832 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 19832 | Rake 0
Board [4d 9h Kh Tc Jc]
Seat 1: Martinelli80 (small blind) showed [Kc Qd] and won (19832) with a straight, Nine to King
Seat 2: Hero (big blind) showed [Kd Ac] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 3: whattheblip folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: jakey1118 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: grayszoo folded before Flop
Seat 6: VoltUk folded before Flop
Seat 7: ytown17 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: rhino0623 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: movieman123 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
webiggy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2009, 11:23 PM   #3072
webiggy
grinder
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 408
Re: Here's one for the "Online Poker is Rigged" conspiracy theorists

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokerdemic View Post
Send this to the press. And call your local government representatives. Consumers need protection from this type of thing.
Well, d'uh! Don't you think I did that already? I'm bringing this whole establishment down, man!
webiggy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2009, 12:29 AM   #3073
DMoogle
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
DMoogle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Northern VA, USA
Posts: 7,132
Re: Here's one for the "Online Poker is Rigged" conspiracy theorists

Quote:
Originally Posted by webiggy View Post
II would never believe that the site is rigging play, but you gotta wonder about packet stealers ;-) I have seen a rash of these types of plays as of late...
I'm fairly certain (someone confirm?) your hole card information is encrypted when it's sent to you, so you shouldn't have to worry about a middleman.

However, trojans on your computer that allow someone else to see what you see ARE an extremely dangerous threat.
DMoogle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2009, 01:07 AM   #3074
webiggy
grinder
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 408
Re: Here's one for the "Online Poker is Rigged" conspiracy theorists

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMoogle View Post
I'm fairly certain (someone confirm?) your hole card information is encrypted when it's sent to you, so you shouldn't have to worry about a middleman.

However, trojans on your computer that allow someone else to see what you see ARE an extremely dangerous threat.
Well, that theory is a little too "tin hat" for me... I'm more concerned about the UB/Absolute/paradise issue of super accounts. I would think that doing it in cheap games is better (a little at a time) than going for big scores. The scam would require a fair amount of collusion for it to work well. Win a bunch of quick hands, then donkey them off to another player...

I'm sure it's dumb luck, but I have witnessed a number of really strange all in calls (and pushes) where the players with the worst of it (by a mile) have hit... and it seems to happen in bunches... This was just one example...
webiggy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-07-2009, 01:12 AM   #3075
dbcooper279
old hand
 
dbcooper279's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Under 23ft of water
Posts: 1,678
Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Spadebidder brings in distribution analysis of millions of hands and the rigtards bring three hands. Who am I to believe?
dbcooper279 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:08 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive