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 04-30-2009, 07:35 AM #2976 spadebidder Actually Shows Proof     Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: This looks interesting. Posts: 7,906 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition Here's an interesting analysis I just got back. This is showing all preflop all-ins for 102 million hands. People have asked for this type of study many times in this thread. This is a rough cut, but it clearly shows that preflop all-ins come out just the way they should in the long run. Number of hands parsed: 102,661,557 Preflop Equity %.....#All-ins...#Wins...% 0 - 10......................... 625 51 8% 10 - 20...................6368 1266 20% 20 - 30.................. 4835 1231 25% 30 - 40.................. 4333 1528 35% 40 - 50.................. 7020 3210 46% 50 - 60.................. 7098 3849 54% 60 - 70.................. 4333 2805 65% 70 - 80.................. 4835 3604 75% 80 - 90.................. 6368 5102 80% 90 - 100................... 625 574 92% Notice all but the end ranges are in the middle of their range. To see why those are not in the middle, all we have to do is look at what matchups occur in those ranges. Pair vs. same high card (dominated) is always pretty close to 92/8. That's why the 0-10% range wins 8% and the 90-100% range wins 92%. There aren't any other matchup types in that range. Now look at the 10-20% range and the 70-80% ranges. Pair vs. pair matchups are always between 82/18 and 80/20 And pair vs. lower suited connector is always around 77/23. What else can happen in this range? Not much, so that puts us at around the 80% mark and 20% mark. So this chart shows that of 102 million preflop all-ins on several major poker sites, they came out just where they would be expected to come out. No sign of rigging here. Last edited by spadebidder; 04-30-2009 at 08:01 AM.
 04-30-2009, 07:40 AM #2977 Username^^ veteran     Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reviewing hands in my dreams Posts: 2,784 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition come on man be more creative .. I am bored
 04-30-2009, 07:40 AM #2978 Username^^ veteran     Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reviewing hands in my dreams Posts: 2,784 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition this thread used to be fun.
04-30-2009, 08:07 AM   #2979
Actually Shows Proof

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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
I think it's fun now that we're getting some actual proof of not-rigged. Wonder if thread will die?

Note a typo in my post, the numbers are for 102 million hands, showing all the preflop all-ins. Not 102 million all-ins.

I posted this in a new thread and clarified and elaborated a bit:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28...rigged-473233/

Last edited by spadebidder; 04-30-2009 at 08:27 AM.

 04-30-2009, 10:11 AM #2980 SooperFish24 adept   Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 1,028 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition Gonna play more stars MTTs with my remaining BR. I predict multiple bad beats to KO me.
 04-30-2009, 10:28 AM #2981 Markusgc Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Noodles, Hockey & Punk Rock! Posts: 8,788 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition what's your name? I'll rail ya!
 04-30-2009, 10:34 AM #2982 DaycareInferno Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 18,279 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition what ever happened with that real deal thing?
04-30-2009, 10:54 AM   #2983
Doubting Thomas
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DaycareInferno what ever happened with that real deal thing?
I tried to sign up with them about a month ago for their freerolls and they said this to me

We are working on getting the website and game play into the best possible condition we can. I see that you have not pre-registered. If you create an account on www.realdealpoker.com we will keep you informed of our progress and timeline.

Sincerely

Customer Service

04-30-2009, 10:55 AM   #2984
qpw
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by SooperFish24 Gonna play more stars MTTs with my remaining BR. I predict multiple bad beats to KO me.
When you have lost all your money as a result of the sites being rigged, will you stop playing and entertaining us with your nonsense?

Or will you load up some more money and give us a running, paranoid, commentary as you lose that?

04-30-2009, 11:04 AM   #2985
Markusgc
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by qpw When you have lost all your money as a result of the sites being rigged, will you stop playing and entertaining us with your nonsense? Or will you load up some more money and give us a running, paranoid, commentary as you lose that?
I already suggested he make a thread like dangeraw's - basically "Busto or Robusto."

I definitely want to offer a blog spot to Sooper on my soon-be-launched (or RE-launched, more accurately stated) Shill Site. I think his antics would draw traffic.

What do you say, buddy?

04-30-2009, 05:08 PM   #2986
Markusgc
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by SooperFish24 Gonna play more stars MTTs with my remaining BR. I predict multiple bad beats to KO me.
how'd it got buddy? was your prediction correct?

04-30-2009, 05:25 PM   #2987
Markusgc
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by hitman4hire The article i will dig out from inside poker this refers to the STTs and the players bad down swing
you get this scanned yet?

 04-30-2009, 09:22 PM #2988 spadebidder Actually Shows Proof     Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: This looks interesting. Posts: 7,906 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition Post needs more love: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28...rigged-473233/ (updated info) I didn't mean to chase off the rig brigade.
05-01-2009, 04:02 AM   #2989
sharpmouth58
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Vandalar When i played more than 12 hours a day i started to think that its rigged too. Now i think it's not rigged (mostly). Although some little things might be slightly altered. But it is only a guess and i say it because there is a possibity for it. Just like saying that there might be some other life form like humans outside our galaxy or smth like that. So the point is very simple- if you can't handle the swings- get a bigger roll or move down or stop playing.
reconsruction of argument:
1. I think full tilt poker is rigged
2. To illustrate that this is likely, I will draw on an analagous situation.
3. There might be other intelligent life in the universe.
therefore: Full tilt poker is likely rigged

05-01-2009, 04:08 AM   #2990
qpw
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Re: Is Full Tilt rigged?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sharpmouth58 reconsruction of argument: 1. I think full tilt poker is rigged 2. To illustrate that this is likely, I will draw on an analagous situation. 3. There might be other intelligent life in the universe. therefore: Full tilt poker is likely rigged
Erm, that isn't what he's saying.

Even us 'shills' do not say that on line poker is not rigged.

We merely say that we have no evidence for it being rigged. (And spend considerable amounts of time trying to convince idiots that the fact they lose a few hands in a row does not mean the deal is rigged. )

It is possible that it is rigged just as it's possible that there are human type lifeforms elsewhere in the universe.

 05-01-2009, 04:10 AM #2991 batair Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: idiocracy Posts: 16,806 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition sick post bump
05-01-2009, 04:16 AM   #2992
qpw
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by batair sick post bump
This thread has been on the front page almost continuously for weeks, now.

 05-01-2009, 04:31 AM #2993 batair Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: idiocracy Posts: 16,806 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition Didn't mean you, the post he quoted is from the first page.
05-01-2009, 04:39 AM   #2994
qpw
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by batair Didn't mean you, the post he quoted is from the first page.
Oh, I see. The post rather than the thread.

05-01-2009, 06:49 AM   #2995
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by spadebidder I think it's fun now that we're getting some actual proof of not-rigged. Wonder if thread will die? Note a typo in my post, the numbers are for 102 million hands, showing all the preflop all-ins. Not 102 million all-ins. I posted this in a new thread and clarified and elaborated a bit: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28...rigged-473233/
But the hands in that analyzis u made is selected from variuos poker rooms, and when you are checking equity preflop of variuos players its completelly normal that it will give you correct odds, becouse if one loses another has to win (I hope you understand what i mean).

05-01-2009, 07:03 AM   #2996
DMoogle
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Username^^ But the hands in that analyzis u made is selected from variuos poker rooms, and when you are checking equity preflop of variuos players its completelly normal that it will give you correct odds, becouse if one loses another has to win (I hope you understand what i mean).
I think you're taking the word "rigtarded" to a whole new level.

05-01-2009, 07:14 AM   #2997
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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DMoogle I think you're taking the word "rigtarded" to a whole new level.
What ever ... I just say that anazlyzis you made has no sence.

 05-01-2009, 08:26 AM #2998 Username^^ veteran     Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reviewing hands in my dreams Posts: 2,784 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition I know 1 thing. Live poker is rigged for sure, becouse my mate just played a live tournament, he got ITM but he lost all times that he had AA and KK againt weaker pairs.
05-01-2009, 09:06 AM   #2999
Actually Shows Proof

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Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Username^^ But the hands in that analyzis u made is selected from variuos poker rooms, and when you are checking equity preflop of variuos players its completelly normal that it will give you correct odds, becouse if one loses another has to win (I hope you understand what i mean).
You should think a little before writing.

We compared the preflop equity at various ranges, to the actual all-in win rates. They matched. If the favorite won less than the expectation, they would not match. If the underdog won more than the expectation, they would not match. Your point that if one loses another has to win is true, and it means if you increase the win rate of the underdog, you alse decrease the win rate of the favorite, and so now you have two brackets in the study that should show skew. None do. The favorite always wins at expectation over time, and the underdog always loses at expectation over time. The brackets are paired, with the 20% equity being on the other side of hands with the 80% equity. Look at the matching hand numbers on the bracket pairs.

Number of hands parsed: 102661557
Total all-in situations: 400804 (Once per 256.14 hands).

Preflop Equity %.....#All-ins...#Wins...%
0 - 10.....................13675 1026 8%
10 - 20................124839 25435 20%
20 - 30................. 72605 21361 29%
30 - 40................. 77187 28437 37%
40 - 50................111568 51068 46%
50 - 60............... 113428 61430 54%
60 - 70................. 77187 48750 63%
70 - 80................. 72605 51244 71%
80 - 90................ 124839 99404 80%
90 - 100................ 13675 12649 92%

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Username^^ But the hands in that analyzis u made is selected from variuos poker rooms
IndianaV8 actually made a joke when he got these results for me, that since it is more than one site mixed, they could be colluding with each other to cancel out each other's riggedness, and make the totals come out right. So I guess you're on to something dog.

Last edited by spadebidder; 05-01-2009 at 09:24 AM.

 05-01-2009, 10:41 AM #3000 Username^^ veteran     Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reviewing hands in my dreams Posts: 2,784 Re: The great "Poker is rigged debate" - Collected threads edition You are right proably, anyway. I had an upswing not long time ago. And actually, i figured out that only limits i cant beat are the lowest stakes, and super turbo tournaments. I have played over 500 sngs in past 10 days in 5\$ limit (it is not high, but definetly different playing style than 1\$) And i played them with 25% ROI. I was also playing 7\$ super turbos, i played around 30 tournaments, and finished them with -50% ROI. I Finally got my decent MTT wining putting me in overall positive ROI and overall \$ winings. I had enough br to play 10\$ sngs, i played around 50 (-10% ROI) But i am possitive that i can beat them in the long run. Anyway, it was fun to discuss with you guys, and as i always said i never thought that OP was rigged. I just dont have enough proves that it is not. I am glad that you bothered your selfs in such researches, and i am kind of proud that next person that presents it self here will get real proof, and will have to stfu.

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