Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoMoos
In accordance with what the Razor generally recommends, I suggest we drop the assumption that people/businesses know when they're making enough and the assumption that they won't run very large risks for very small gains.
Those are not in accordance to that principle.
Businesses compete in a marketplace and in order to succeed (especially in a very competitive industry), and to do so they need to be better run than the competition or else they will fail.
You seem to think that all businesses have no idea of what is enough or any concept of risk vs reward. Actually, you seem to ignore risk completely out of convenience. That simply is not how the marketplace works.
The Cryptologic network had a bonus and reward program that was far too generous and was brutally exploited. Eventually they ran out of money just like a bank who specialized in giving out change would over time. They were poorly run and eventually collapsed.
In contrast, the major sites today tend to be fairly well run through a lot of experience in the marketplace. They all make mistakes now and then (as do all businesses), but the ones who are succeeding now do not make inherent systemic errors, and your simplistic "they don't know how much is enough" principle is utterly impossible for any business to last in a competitive arena.
Do some companies run large risks for minimal gains? Sure. Those are the ones that fail, just like many of the poker players who play with no bankroll management and discipline.
Your beliefs are indeed simple, but they are inherently incorrect, so to say they follow "the Razor" just shows one of the ways riggies butcher that theory. The more common way riggies do this is with their intricate, yet unprovable conspiracy theories.
Do a little basic research on how marketplaces work and you may eventually understand what I am talking about.
All the best.