OP, I don't think you're getting a "Real Deal" online.

It definitely happens more frequently online but that's only because there are zillions of more hands dealt online...but that's just semantics and being silly and I know what OP is trying to say.

I don't play live very much. I've had KK vs. AA multiple times in the same session live. No big deal. Not that QQ vs. AA is the same but many people include that too and it leads me to when I saw this stuff the most live: The one time I played the WSOP Main Event in 2005. 2nd level I get QQ and hit a set and bust some guy who called my all-in with AA. 30 minutes later I get KK and get it all-in preflop and lose to someone with AA (didn't bust me though since I had doubled-up earlier). A little while later two other players at this same table got all-in with AA vs. KK.

That's life. Anyway, yes..memory can play some funny tricks on you. Anyone who says, "I play live and I can just tell that online they try to set up more action hands like AA vs. KK" is pretty much a bad player who doesn't know what he's talking about regardless of how long he's played.

I've also had blackjack dealers tell me that after 30 years of dealing they know that when they have a 16 they will catch a 4 or a 5 WAY more than they should just because that's how the cards always seem to 'flow'.

They will have an upcard of 6 and will say that the 6 will bust out about 80% of the time and they know this because they remember it about right and have been dealing forever. The true number for such an event is about 41-42% but they will swear to their last dying breath that everywhere they have been where they have dealt and played for 30 years that it is definitely closer to about 80%.

They will even go so far as to tell you that when they have a 6 as an upcard that they will have a 10 as their down-card about 50% of the time. Ummm, only 4 out of the 13 cards are valued as 10. "Yeah...but when a 6 is the upcard then it's more like 50% that the downcard will be a 10."

Ummm, huh?

In other words, people are morons at math even if they don't act completely ******ed at other things. Doctors, lawyers and other semi-intelligent professionals in most respected fields still can't get this stuff and their memory ends up playing some pretty odd tricks on them.

That's about 5000 hands. A day's play on the internet. Live play is rigged if he's seen it more in his life time than an online player will see on average every day.

Selective memory, small sample sizes (much smaller for live), and the desire to see patterns like this for online among those who say "I'm not saying it's rigged but" are a healthy combination behind what you think you see and believe.

Also, consider the following - if in fact the sites were going to rig their games, do you really think they would do it by having way too many AA vs KK hands? That's the first thing anyone would notice if it was indeed true as it is one of the easiest things to check for in hand history databases.

Have faith that if the sites are cheating you they are at least doing it in a way that is a bit smarter then that


That being said, what the heck...


POKERSTARS GAME #26763602590: TOURNAMENT #147621594, 100FPP HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VI (100/200) - 2009/04/05 17:29:32 ET
Table '147621594 91' 10-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Az cards 09 (1995 in chips)
Seat 2: Stu_yo (2590 in chips)
Seat 3: dilandoss (7902 in chips)
Seat 4: look forward (3760 in chips)
Seat 5: Monteroy (6170 in chips)
Seat 6: Dharma51 (7627 in chips)
Seat 7: bolen428 (5630 in chips)
Seat 8: thara2607 (32606 in chips)
Seat 9: Mr Thorne (7720 in chips)
Seat 10: kaelm21 (3903 in chips)
bolen428: posts small blind 100
thara2607: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [Kd Kh]
Mr Thorne: folds
kaelm21: folds
Az cards 09: folds
Stu_yo: folds
dilandoss: calls 200
look forward: folds
Monteroy: raises 1000 to 1200
Dharma51: raises 1000 to 2200
bolen428: folds
thara2607: folds
dilandoss: folds
dilandoss said, ":/"
Monteroy: raises 3970 to 6170 and is all-in
Dharma51: calls 3970
*** FLOP *** [Th Tc 7h]
dilandoss said, "first time i try to slow play a good ha,d lol"
*** TURN *** [Th Tc 7h] [3c]
thara2607 said, "wow"
dilandoss said, "had QQ"
*** RIVER *** [Th Tc 7h 3c] [6c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [Kd Kh] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
Dharma51: shows [Ah Ac] (two pair, Aces and Tens)
thara2607 said, "nh"
Dharma51 collected 12840 from pot



Annoying since my gut was that min reraise was AA. Tends to be what new and really bad players do when they have AA.




I changed my mind, clearly it is rigged. Other guy even claims to have QQ. That proves it. Sign me up on the rigtard express.

This is true. I used to be a dealer but I have clumsy hands and people used to complain about my block riffle shuffle. heh. Luckily it doesn't matter at blackjack or casino stud poker but when I'd play holdem at home, if the flop was 888 and I dealt you an eight on the next hand, chances would be high you would flop an eight (playing heads up with a friend). Bet there are tons of ****ty dealers out there.

see it everyday online. If its not KK into AA, its KK into Ace Rag which results in 50% loss.

and this is why poker in all forms will continue to be profitable

thanks for another scholarly thread

See, this is the prefect thing that anyone with poker tracker can check. Just look at all of your KK hands and see which ones were all in preflop versus ace rag and see what the win and loss rate is overall.

Should not take too long, but the results probably will disappoint you as you find your KK actually does win about 65-70% of the time. Poker tracker is annoying that way, it does not only remember the bad beats.

Don't worry, no one expects you will back your 50% loss claim. I am merely suggesting how you could easily prove it if it were indeed true.

All the best.

Please read my post where I convey some anecdotes of other people who are about as ridiculous as you in their memory bias without any proof or histories to back up their claims.

You just throw out 50% loss because it feels right? This isn't hard to figure out. People's memories and selective bias kind of suck. You actually need to go through all your HH's to see if KK lost to Ace-rag all-in 50% of the time.

Other people on here have MILLIONS of hands in their databases and have shown this just doesn't happen. So your only other recourse is to claim that it pretty much only happens to you and not to others (even though you don't have any proof to back up your claim).

PROVE that your memory is correct by going your HH's. If you don't have your HH's then find someone who does. If you can't do that then have some trust in the people who have MILLIONS of HH's. If you don't want to trust them because it's a giant conspiracy on the internet designed to deceive you then just start keeping track of all your KK vs. Ax all-ins beginning now to prove whether you are right or not.

gold

The truth is it happens with the same frequency. It's just that live players are exponentially better than online players, so much so, that they muck that KK pre and so you never see it as often as you do online.

I've done a great deal of research on this, and AA vs. KK confrontations do happen more online. This is because 12.7% of live players fold AA to a raise because "it never wins" and 22.3% of live players fold KK to a threebet because their opponent has to have aces. These numbers are much smaller online.

This reminds me of one of my few live sessions, where a guy said this (and actually meant it!):

"I can't catch anything. I've been sitting here for 45 minutes and haven't gotten aces once!"

Either he thought there were only 24 combinations of hole cards or so, or his prior poker life to this point had been running REALLY REALLY well.

I mean what can I do....? You guys can do all the searching I can. You can even go to any ".Gov" site and write an email and ask....

Its closer to 60% than 70%.

50% was a slight exaggeration.

I'll see what I can do with poker tracker.

7

I can even say this thread is awful. The whole point: It is a fact that you see more hands online then live...why would it be this hard to concede to the fact that you would get KK vs AA online more often then live? Perhaps if you were to single out a single site others could indulge differently. As a general statement for online poker as a whole...epic failure....

you run into it more online bc its rigged!!!

Exactly. That's why I play online because I get AA twice an hour, and live I only get them once every 7 hours. Live poker is rigged fer sure.

I can go to irs.gov and ask if your 80 percenters lose more than 20 percent of the time?

C'mon now, give us a hint, would ya? Is it bigger than a breadbox?

Markusgc, i must ask.. do you have anything better to do with your time?

better than spotting obvious gimmicks?

This is what I dubbed the Kirshner syndrome (my name as I came up with this when I was 12. Mine has to do with catching green lights vs red lights. You only think about the times when you hit all the red lights but when they are green you do not think about it as you are continually moving. red means you have time to sit and think about it while stopped.

Awesome idea.