Quote:
Originally Posted by strops
So, I'm the original poster and I was not trying to further some acrimonious debate about whether online poker is fixed. Especially for a site as large as Full Tilt, it would make absolutely no business sense for them to rig it, as someone would eventually find out and they would be ruined when that happened.
Acknowledging that, I do find it bizarre that by ratios that seem reversed, hands that are dominating lose all-ins pre-flop with such frequency, and this tourney was a great example. AQ beats AK, AK beats KK, A2 beats KK within the space of six hands total. This is not a one time occurrence, or it wouldn't have been worth posting. No I don't have a statistically valid database sample to back it up, as I don't go all-in pre-flop very often.
I also didn't intend this to be a debate about my playing skills, but just out of curiosity which of the all-in calls should I have folded, first AK, second AK, or KK, or all three?
Sorry if you got jumped on and you are NOT a rigtard.
You do, nontheless, have a problem with probability and it is this:
You do not appreciate that when billions of a certain even happen every year there will be a great many VERY unusual occurances.
For example, suppose you said to everyone playing on-line poker at a certain moment: "Please find a fair coin and throw it sixteen times".
There is a very good chance that at least one person woul throw 16 heads or 16 tails.
It's extremely unlikely that there would NOT be several people who threw a series of a dozen heads or tails.
If you see a 1 in 20 hand event, followed immediately and contiguously by 4 similarly unlikely events you need to realise that that is a 1 in 3.2 million probability and if there are 100,000 people playing poker at a time (a conservative estimate, I think) at a rate of 60 hands per hour, then a couple of tables will see an event like this
every single hour. If you play 10k hands per month you will see typically see something similarly improbable around every three years.