Quote:
Originally Posted by farf
OP: So, with 52 cards in the deck, and 8.06 x 10^67 ways for all 52 cards to be dealt out, you are going to argue that 100K is too large of a sample to get an accurate account of whether or not an RnG is good? If you had one hundred thousand 100,000 hand samples that might be enough to settle the arguement one way or the other, but until someone takes the time to accumulate that many hands, and analysis them, and accepts that even after that many hands (which is still less than 1 trillion trillion trillionth of 1 percent of the total number of possibilities) deviation is still a probability, you are not going to get the proof you need to show that online poker is or is not rigged.
As far as the deviation becoming too small to notice in your too large 100K hand sample, if that is what happens as the sample gets larger it means that the RnG is actually doing its job because the deviation is disappearing. If it remains as noticable, then there is a problem.
You can argue that if you want, but you are basing your argument on a false premise, that there should be 0% deviation from the norm. That would only be the case in a perfect, non-random world.
Taking a sample of under 100K hands and saying that because there is deviation, poker is rigged would be equivalent of taking a single lifeform from this planet and saying it is a proper representation of life on this planet. Lets hope you do not accidentally grab an amoeba.
That being said, based on your argument, I would be happy to sit down and play with you live.
Great job with the smoke and mirrors argument sir! Some deviation does not mean things are rigged. Cheating can be disquised and the best cheaters know this. If I got cheated 1 hand out of 100,000 - could I prove it to anyones satisfaction by statistical evidence alone. Obvioulsy not. The greater the sample size the easier to dilute the easier to decieve.
Hypothetical : I cheat you in live game by dealing off the bottom of the deck and win a $5000 pot off you. You dont see it and I only do it once. You win the rest of the hands. You end up down only $1000.00. Walk away never suspecting a thing. Just got unlucky.
But what if I deal off the bottom of the deck every hand and every hand u lose. So u start watching how I deal and u see Im dealing off the bottom. Im busted. You shoot me or never play with me again.
Now if i spread that dealing off the bottom over a much larger number of hands (sample) u are less likely to notice and I am more likely to make more money off you. I let u win sometimes and tell u see you just have to play 100,000 hands to see if I'm cheating.
Last edited by stackerhound; 03-26-2009 at 04:16 PM.