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Originally Posted by Thinking Out Loud
I'm trying to start from the point of "is there a way/method for rigging or wrongdoing to be undetectable in individual hand analysis", which if true negates the first starting point.
When we talk about people who say things like "there are way too many bad beats on Site X", or "my AA never holds up on Site Y", then no. If patterns are so obviously detectable as to be noticed by mere observation, they would be trivially easy to prove statistically. That's just common sense, and I hope you can see that.
Of course more sophisticated rig theories that you're trying to come up with are a different matter.
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Originally Posted by Thinking Out Loud
Admittedly I'm out of my depth with regard to undetectable "rigs" but still interested in the discussion for now, yet the part about SuperUsers seems very basic and feasible. I asked awhile back ITT about what prevents another AP/UB SuperUser type scam and the general response was hand tracking but with anonymous tables and disciplined methods I don't see how that would be detectable in individual hand tracking.
To some extent, nothing, especially on anonymous tables. Now, I'm pretty sure that on Bodog they offer hand histories, after 24 hours, that show ALL hole cards, so that at least allows player to prove suspicious play - but they can't pin the histories outside of a single session to one particular player without the site's help. And on sites that are not anonymous, I think there would be a certain amount of superusing a person could get away with and have it be very unlikely to be detected. But it would require some very, very careful play - I'm inclined to think that the same energy could be put into playing well and net similar results. The more they take advantage of superusing ability to make it worthwhile, the more detectable they become. And if they use it at high stakes so a smaller edge makes them more money, they also come under much closer scrutiny as the player pool gets smaller and much, much savvier.
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Originally Posted by Thinking Out Loud
Like I asked Alien earlier, the "increased rake" statement I made aside, what's the proof that any alteration to the original order, no matter how incremental, can be detected as not random in hand analysis?
The bolded part is important, and takes us back to a debate we've had in this thread many times before.
Of course there's an amount of rigging you could set up that would never be detectable. If you were to rig one hand in a million, no matter how outrageously, it could never be proved from the outside. Or two hands. Ten. But of course 10 hands in a million isn't going to help the site either. Until someone proves otherwise, I'm of the belief that once a rig becomes significant enough for it to be a benefit to the site (accounting for the programming and coverup costs), it would be detectable.
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Originally Posted by Thinking Out Loud
If even they are random, they are also predetermined, making them exploitable, potentially without detection through individual hand analysis, right?
As for your particular scenario of moving around hands in your million hand sample, as others have said, that's no longer random, and should be detectable. But even if it wasn't - how the hell is a site going to use that to their advantage? How do you take a predetermined deal and generate more rake from it without having any idea what the given players will do with the hand?
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Originally Posted by GustavoGans
I do agree that by using a word like "countless" I might have exageratted but my premise is that there is solid amount of people online as you can already see within this poll on top of the page. 34.59% believe its rigged while 7.34% are undecided - overall 40% of people that have doubts towards online poker.
But 40% of what? I really hope you don't think that's 40% of 2+2ers. It's 40% of a self-selected sample. 40% of people who are inclined to open a "Poker is rigged" thread and vote in it have doubts. Well, actually less than 40% when you remove the joke votes and riggies who have used multiple accounts to vote.
I'm pretty confident that if there was a way to poll all 2+2ers, the number would be much, much lower. But no, I have no way of proving that. Just seems like common sense to me.