and now to -> 62.75

no josem, not particularly statisically significant over a period of months, but i was not talking months,

i was talking yesterday,

the point i was making, perhaps a bit obscure for you, was that if any one had been reading the thread for the last couple of days, and still voted yes on the poll, well, perhaps their eyes are not particularly open,

i have not gone into the figures, but over, say, the last 36 hours, for the number of votes for no to go up 0.5% of 3000 odd votes, well that looks like around 15 times more votes for no than yes

have i got any credibility back?

I don't know about that.

In the 162 days between the 13th Feb and the 25th Jul the 'no' proportion moved by 0.08% a movement of 0.00049% per day.

In the ten day between the 25th Jul and today it's moved 0.25% - a change in proportion of 0.025 per day.

That's around 50 times faster.

Of course, over such a short period variance is going to be much more of a factor but it seems an interesting blip.

an interesting blip indeed Watson

but we must remember,

Victory in the war is not victory in the argument about the war.

I don't think anyone takes this poll seriously, really.

Far too many people will have voted for the opposite of what they think just for devilment.

And the poll is invalid anyway as there's no 'Bastard!' option.

i voted 'bastard'

Where are you guys getting these stats?

My God.Do you realize that only 3% to 5% of full time players can make a living? That leaves 95% just arnt good enough. So please with the crying.

Interesting observation. What is your experience at the CakePoker site? Like so many online poker players, I had to leave PS and FT because of the doomswitch phenomenon, and I’ve been playing at Doyle’s Room for quite some time now. I’m happy to say that my card runs continue in a normal up and down pattern; no endless barrages of bad beats that drive you into the ground. The biggest problem with DR, however, is the light traffic. Is Cake busier?

As far as the nationality thing goes, I'm a US player and I place high and win my share of tournaments at DR (I've more than quadrupled my money since playing there, so I don't think there is any nationality favoritism.) I was just wondering about the doomswitch effect. It seems like that aspect would be the same as DR: none.

The only hope for getting the big sites to move “off the reservation” is the passage of HR 2267 (so they can be purchased by big casinos in the US and actually regulated for fairness.) And though HR 2667 is likely to pass the full house in the near future, when it hits the Senate, it may languish there for a long time. As we know, the brain-dead GOP Senators are filibustering nearly everything that comes down the pike, and there's a good chance they will do the same with this bill. In my view, the only hope is that they may just put partisanships aside because the country badly needs the revenue online gaming will generate.

Hey Shilltards: the GOP is your best friend on this one. If they knock the bill down in the Senate, which there is at least an even money chance they you will do, you shillies get to keep your minimum wage jobs. Ain’t life grand.

Shame that guy who posted the xenophobic rant is likely a one and done riggie as it would be quite interesting to watch different riggies discuss their various takes on their own personal doomswitches and paranoid beliefs.

That did not happen on the shill week off and I suspect even with this fellow's mild effort (props on that by the way as promised), the reality is we will never be truly entertained by a conversation of riggies comparing notes and observations.

Shame, as that would be entertaining. Just imagine...


Riggie 1: The sites help Germans

Riggie 2: The sites screw Germans and help Americans

Riggie 3: The sites help big stacks

Riggie 4: The sites help short stacks

Riggie 5: Can we all agree that the sites are cheating us

Chorus: Yes!


Perhaps a musical can be written one day.

All the best.

Want to get rid of the doomswitch? Just search your Stars folder and the hand histories folder for doomsw.exe and doomswitchon.exe Once you find them delete them. Now uninstall the client. Once you have done that run a search for "doomswitch" and delete the file you found. Re install the client and deposit at least $1000. Dont play below NL200. Now you should run good until you cash out.

can someone just explain to me the math and odds of running bad on up to 20 tables at a time??!?!?

im not asking whether u believe me, just what kind chances

Are you really that stupid or are you just pretending for a bet?

As Monteroy has pointed out many times, rigtard beliefs are not based on logic but a need to believe that the sites are rigged as a means to assuage their feelings of inadequacy at losing, or winning less than they think they should.

If the bill goes through and some large American concerns buy/start poker rooms all that will happen is that there will be general rigtard rejoicing, a few weeks of 'wow! it's so great to finally get fair cards' before they revert to type and start asking 'when are the government going to start doing their job and bust these cheating scumbags'.

Whether or not the bill passes the outlook for experienced shills is as rosy as ever.

You need to give a lot more information.

The odds of running bad for one hour at twenty tables are exactly the same as the odds of running bad for twenty hours at one table.

What you are interested in are the odds of running bad for some number of hands, no matter how you arrange to play them.

Given that downswings of 5000 (or even more) hands are not unheard of it's quite possible to run bad at 20 tables for considerably longer periods than an hour.

If you 'run bad' for longer than, say, 20,000 hands, the likelihood (but not certainty) is that you are not running bad so much as not playing poker as well as you think you are.


Edit: Given the information Spadebidder has provided below, I think you should carefully consider the sentence immediately above this.

100% if you think losing means the same as "running bad" and if you suck at poker.

In another thread you described going all in on a paired flop when you held just one pair, and then you called it a bad beat when the other guy had the trips. Hint: when the other player holds the best hand at the time the money goes in, it has nothing to do with "running bad" whatsoever. It has to do with putting your money in as a dog with 12% chance to win.

fish preservation system

small percentage chance for turn and river redraw that reduces the leading players odds, i.e. a 86-14 is actually 84-18 etc...

this runs part but not all of the time to prevent being detected

results in lower win rates for winners and lower loss rates for really bad players, the purpose being to keep everyone playing longer to maximize rake

proof: found only in the entire universe being +skalansky bucks but since none has the entire sample what can you do, also, its small enough to be explained by variance

other, profiling

those offerring sufficient info to allow a profile risk being tagged as someone who can and will redeposit over and over

such players will be doomswitched from time to time to trigger redeposits as sites understand the addictive nature of the game....most victims are loners who do not use tracking software and therefore are unlikely to perform or participate in statistical reviews

other, high profile individuals boomswitched in order to fulfill the "dream", often university players who are deeply connected via internet social networking and campus groups

there must be seen players in glory to maintain the illusion

believing in a fair deal is akin to belief in the tooth fairy, when in the course of human events ever has been a fair deal? name one

You see, if you actually understood any thing about statistics, you'd realise the inanity of the bolded section.

Nope. If you gummy the deal, by no matter how slight a degree*, as the number of hands available for analysis gets larger the probability that you cheating can be ascribed to variance becomes smaller and smaller.

There are millions per day on the on line poker sites.



* Obviously, if you rig the deal at such an absurdly small rate that it would take trillions of hands to detect you're not going to get caught.

On the other hand, you're not going to make any significant amount of money and no one is going to notice the effect.

I wonder why FT and PS are both campaigning hard for HR 2267, have both contributed money to support it, and are both delighted at the progress of this legislation? According to Rich Muny (who knows firsthand), "The bottom line is that the sites are thrilled with this bipartisan win in Congress."

when you got dealt your life

and i got dealt mine

How does it happen?
How often does it hapen?
How often should it happen?
How can you throw accusations about with no answers to these questions?

Stop lying.

You chose to leave because you couldn't win and blamed an imaginary phenomenon

Do you have any data showing the comparison between the sites or are you basing this on your imagination / memory again?

Could the low traffic mean there are less serious (good) players making it easier for you to win? Is it fair to say this is a more plausible explanation than your creative imagination?

So when you lose it is because of nationallity favouritism but when you win it isn't? Why?

Sigh...

Dear Jolyroger,

I have presented this hypothesis here during the rigtarded phases of my 2+2 existence. This argument does explain why programming adjustments could be used but no one has ever been able to show exactly how you would be able to hide it and make the poker site enough money to make it worth the risk.

The Shilltardigan says "It would most definitely show up in the hand histories".

The Rigtardigan says "How could you detect that in billions of hands that that no one but the site has access to all at once?"

The bottom line here is that if something like this was going on, wouldn't some disgruntled ex employee or programmer come forward with evidence or at least a statement?

Sincerely,

DonkoTheClown
Multiple Personality Specialist
Consultant/Counselor
Smart Ass
Demi-Genius
www.donkotheclownsplayground.com
800-eat-dirt
DonkoTheClown@moron.com

Donko,

It will out.

joly

That's only one argument, Donko.

One based on maths and statistics is:

If you can detect some anomaly in the deal just by observation and without carrying out any meaningful analysis, the anomaly must be very significant and will be easily yield to detection using a comparatively small sample and proper statistical techniques.

3.50, I believe

What are you even talking about? 3.50?

PPA got their marketing boost from FT and PS with the PPA 5k freerolls.<Register with their site and get an entree>
As it was stated, any poker site that operated illegally will not be able to obtain a liscense.

FT and PS however, will not be granted licensing anytime soon. There will be a quick passage in the next few months that will allow new regulated US based sites, to accept US players under the authority of the US Treasury Department.

In the meantime, FT, PS and others will press for legislation that would allow them to enter the US market. That could take years and millions of dollars.

Party Poker settled out of court for around $25 million for misrepresenting their "Gambling Transactions." Therefore you will see Party Poker before FT and PS.


In all honesty, no matter how you look at it, the most influencial motivational drive to abolish Poker for the US Gov't is because of the operaters and their alledged activities. It's a war against the Sites, not the game.