Here I go again on Full Tilt...

I found a table (cap no limit) for which one person is going all in on every hand for the past 400 hands. Yes he is losing but I am running so bad that it is hard to believe.

It is once again at the limits of what I feel might happen due to variance and does not feel like a normal game.

I am down close to 9 buyins but my $EV stats show that I should be up 4 full buyins.

It is just sick to get all in ahead over and over and watch the worst player get absolutely incredible flops holding 7,3 off.

Gah!

Is that Russian or Native American?

This is "also live access." Perhaps you should research beyond the link I provided.

I sat here using Poker Stove to see how my pockets faired against a total random hand a only pushed when I was about 65% or better and just got roasted by any two random cards for about 500 hands.

So sick.

Jesus Christ - is he that Mexican footballer?

This scenario keeps begging the question, when hell is my luck going to fall on the other side of the variance offset.

When am I actually going to be the winner with a difference of a 12 buyin $EV in my favor.

I other words, when am I going to get a rush of luck that magnifies my winnings 12x more than they should be because I have gone on plenty of runs just the opposite where my EV is up but my winnings are down the toilet.

You would think I would get thrown a bone every now and then but not for the past 70k hands.

If I ever ran half this bad live, I would be broke in no time.

Are you making any point other than bitching about bad beats over a small sample?

It is also kinda funny that in the midst of this horrible run, the site throws me a bone and lets me hit a royal flush on the river to pick up a baby pot.

The above demonstrates why your analysis of your 'luck' is suspect.

A lot of that is perception, Xevoius. We have all hit HUGE hands that didn't pay off because no one else hit anything worth playing.

I always found it a bit frustrating at first, but watch the pros on shows like Poker After Dark. I see them hit crazy hands, get no action, take down the pot, muck their masterpiece without any reaction and move right on to the next hand.

Just because we sometimes pay off others' big hands doesn't mean we're entitled to be paid off on ours.

Yeah, I had posted a few times about how Full Tilt just seems screwy and how the deals promote action at microstakes cashgame which happen to be where they cut the rake the most.

I feel very suspcious of this site.

I know it can feel like it, trust me. But there are just so many crazy options that can come out that LOOK rigged.

AA vs. KTs small preflop raise and call... flop... 4KT... seems rigged, yeah? but what about if the flop just had two of the KTs's suit? or if the flop was like QJx or AQJ or QJ9... or TTx... KKx... etc. There really are a lot of options that could make these hands battle it all the way to the river.

I hear ya and thanks for the understanding.

I think I am totally burned out on Full Tilt and need to find another place to play so that my recent results do not effect my play.

My results ran so bad after about 60k of losing that I put together little tests to see how I was running in the short run to compare to my live games. And once again for each one of those tests it has been painful.

I have had some modest winning sesions mixed in but when it is losing, it more than makes up for it. Things such as slow playing two pair on the flop or letting a free card peel off when I flop a set on dry boards just set myself up for a nightmare bad beat but often pay out good when playing live in a heads up pot.

I have had very good success on other european based sites having actually runs of really good luck significantly effecting my bankroll but Full Tilt has taken the cake for giving me my worst runs ever.

Definitely take a break if it's affecting your play in a bad way.

I burned myself out on cash play online for awhile, since the swings can be so brutal. According to PTR I'm a 4+BB winner at cash, but it feels like such a damn rollercoaster of ups and downs.

For now I picked up playing some SnG's. It has swings too, but much less severe (as long as you're using proper bankroll management).

Aren't those small Euro sites extraordinarily easy? I always thought Tilt and Stars have tougher competition than most of the Euro sites. Maybe that could explain your downswing?

Perhaps your play hasn't adapted to being able to beat the better players on FTP.. I dunno

Oh and is that 60k cash you lost or over 60k hands? What limits are we talking as well?

Bingo

The amount of times I am running bad and then can't get action on Aces or Kings the next 4 or 5 times I have them is extraordinary.

When it rains, it pours.

Im convinced the only way to win in Stars tournaments is to get in behind. I lose every race Im ahead and when I do get it in behind I suck out. Its the twighlight zone and Im surprised more people are recognizing this. PokerStars has reversed odds most likely to close the gap between good and bad players so everyone stays alive and contributing rake. Otherwise 80% of the players would be gone by the end of the month. I literally question if the half the people are trying to lose.

Haha hey buddy here is a variance simulator example a very astute poster called Fulzgold recently alerted my attention to.

It is for cash games but the different colours represent the different resulats over either 100k or 1 million hands you can have in exactly the same cirumstances.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...ulator-535212/

Page Not Found

Sorry take 2- PLEASE every rigtard read this link

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...ulator-535212/

Now that's a cool ass link! Many thanks!

Edit: It's cool to see how much variance plays a role amongst players of exactly equal caliber.

Thanks!! Just goes to show how bad variance can be.

I dont understand what it is exactly. I just know I got knocked out of the last 12 tournaments on stars to 7 river 2 outers...3 turn 2 outers...1 river 1 outer for a straight flush..and 1 guy who flopped quad 2's after shoving over top of my aces preflop for a 120k pot 5 spots before a bubble. I can post all this. Its literally funny. Something is wrong with the RNG. This is beyond variance.

No it's not. Take a look at the graph below, it represents 100k hands for 100 players who have the exact same EV going into the sample. In other words, the difference between the light blue guy who is up $125k and the poor dark green guy who is down some $40k is purely due to variance.



Edit: You play tourneys, there's a similar calculator out there for tourneys as well, but I don't have the link right now. Basically you will find that among say 100 9% ROI SnG players there will always be the poor guy who runs cold as hell and loses 80+ buy-ins (and the extremely running hot guy and everything in between - which of those players do you think are more likely to believe that poker is rigged and end up posting their bad beats in this thread?).

Ok cool so lets answer the question. Why do some people consitantly run cold. I posted earlier how I have 5 accounts on 5 different sites. 4 of them have nothing under a 45%roi and then I have a Stars account that is 5% and I feel like no matter what I do I always get forced to lose. And when I started a second account on there in 2007 to prove it I went on a terror and won 4 donkaments in one month. I had a 285% roi before they shut it down I went back to running like death. How is this possible without it actually being rigged? How is the graph possible without it being rigged?

It's been answered already. Variance.

You completely don't understand probability and what the random nature of the cards can and does cause to happen over periods of time.