If you identify the odds are always set against you, you can achieve the highest EV by stopping immediately and forever.

Luckily(lol), the 1-4 looks different for poker.

1. Study the system -- always ongoing process
2. Identify its flaws -- different for each individual player
3. Beat players by making better decisions than them.
4. Profit.

There are two simple reasons why that comment is particularly annoying.

1) When debating something what matters are the facts and logic presented in the debate. To try and tie the merits of this argument to whether or not someone actually plays poker is a form of argumentum ad verecundium.

2) Even if it had the slightest validity you have shown on evidence for the assertion whatsoever.

You were not by any means the first to bring up that particular irrelevance. Various 'tards had tried it as well.

It was the fact that you seem to periodically get very bitchy about something that is completely off topic to the matter at hand that led me to make the observation that you were behaving like a woman suffering from PMS. Of course, they have a perfectly good reason for acting bitchily whereas you seem to be doing it just for the hell of it.

You seem, generally, to have a reasonable level of intelligence and yet you allow yourself to be sidetracked and start attacking other posters on off topic matters and in a style that is usually exhibited only by the most stupid and most desperate posters. I really do wonder why.

It's not the simple fact of being called a non player - that's happened many times over the last year or so. It is seeing someone who usually posts in a fairly sensible and rational manner let himself down and make a fool of himself by posting such a blatantly flawed and totally irrelevant argument and, moreover, doing so with with no evidence.


Of course you're not.

You just fancied having another little bitch.

I wonder.

I wonder if you will, at last, actually see how idiotic you have made yourself appear by harping on and on about something for which you have no evidence and which is completely and utterly irrelevant anyway.

It would be nice to think that is the case.

For the sake of converstation.

The poker application can easily track stats on you just like Holdem Manager. Any of this information can be used to trigger events in the application.

I used to work on MMORPGs (Online Video Games) for a living where we did just that while tracking statistics on millions of players playing in a virtual world. We called them trigger events and they would happen in a matter of milliseconds.

If you think that a site could not determine the amount a player has invested in their site, the amount of wins the player has achieved, the amount of time the player has played on their site, the amount that is in the pot vs the amount the player has left in thier stack or bankroll, etc., between the deal of the turn and river card, then I you might be a little too trusting of poker software.

I personally do not think this is being done but it is definately possible.

Exactly, there is a reason why these sites keep people very far from their servers. All of this is taking place. No doubt in my mind. When you see the same donk in a SNG who makes bad call after bad call and win his 30% hand 90% of the time you know there is a third party at work making sure he always has money in his account to enter tourneys and pay entry fees

Of course this can be done, and probably actually is for legit reasons. In fact these things and more are almost certainly profiled by major sites. They even advertise for player analyst jobs. But if that information were used to manipulate the deal, the resulting skewed output would be detectable.

Edit:
http://www.pocketkings.ie/Jobs/DJ07
http://www.pocketkings.ie/Jobs/SM01

duh

Indeed there is.

But it has nothing to do with hiding rigging.

You'll find that all sites keep people 'very far' from their servers.

Thanks for the "duh" bud. Much appreciated.

Again, you claim the data would be obvious if the deal was tampered with and once again you over simplify the issue. You do not think the site can hide unrealistic results in the window of "variance" a player is suseptable to?

"You can't post smart stuff in here arctic, not allowed. Stay away or this thread will make you dumber." - You might want to take your own advice since you are so polarized on this issue.

This will be my last post directed at you since you seem unable to discuss this topic on a mature level.

There are other arguments to this debate that say "Why would they want to risk it?".

This is a business and since when has a company just played fair because it was the "right" thing to do or since they just make enough money anyways.

There never is enough money made with most businesses as they have to think about their future and what is the risk of being caught when there is no legal body that could put them out of business for unfair practices (ok, I am making an assumption here on the legal part).

Again, to just assume all is fair in online poker seems very naive.

Just something as simple as (under specific conditions) removing one of the player's outs that is ahead in an all-in hand would be simple, could make business sense and be very hard to spot pouring through statistcal data.

The other day I called a preflop raise and call with K7s because I knew it would connect, not because I was getting decent odds. The flop was 7K7. Call me an idiot for saying I can do this or that I will be mainly wrong, but it still happens to me on a regular basis.

But how much did you lose?

Who is over-seeing and making sure such abuse doesn't occur?
So, with the factual evidence we've gathered...
I guess it's safe to assume that since there has never been any sanctions or prosecutions towards Customer or Poker Site, that abuse and fraud in Online Poker Land is non-exsistant.
I am gathering a Utopian poker world, that the USA is selfishy trying to destabilize b/c they are jealous...Just like Jonestown!



Makes sense to me...

LoL, the sad thing is, I believe you. I would devulge more, but you know what "they're" going to say....

I never claimed to lose the hand, nor to be a losing player. This hand was not a strong winner because no one else really connected. The original aggressor bet out on the flop and I smooth called him, hoping for another bet on the turn. He checked the turn after a blank comes up, and I put a smallish value bet out that any K should call, but he folded.

Sometimes catching a monster pays off and sometimes not. I got what I could from him. I could've checked the turn, but handing out free cards is not what I'm about unless I have the stone cold nuts.

Don't be so sure.

What I would say is this

If you play the game for fun, social reasons and/or the thrill of the gamble and are playing within your limits then playing K7s or any hand that feels lucky is totally appropriate as your needs for why you play are being met. Not everyone plays to win money or to make a career out of poker and that is fine.

If you call there because you have position and you know the person before you raises a lot and becomes weak post flop then as well this is a reasonable call as is the call/check bet line as that represents that you hit the flop well and a hand with a king is reasonable to be a calling hand with, as well as potentially trips, so you can win this hand whether it was K7 or 23 by doing this approach if the other person missed the flop (which will happen often). You are playing the player and happened to smash the flop which is a nice bonus.


If you play seriously and you call there because you "feel lucky" and if you miss the flop you give up and forget about the hand then thank you for long term contributing to the poker economy whether you win that specific hand or not. Maybe your luck will change when you re-deposit.

This hand was in Rush Poker and I had no reads on any players at the table.

I think part of me WANTS to be wrong, so I can feel more confident about proper play.

A serious reply.

The next 20 times you have K7 suited play them the same way and see how it works out. Is 20 a massive sample? Obviously not, but it will at least remove the 1 hand feel lucky aspect of your result there to some extent.

First, I love your site, and I don't believe that online poker is rigged.

But does actually show that the flop is not manipulated in any way to match the hole cards for action? Maybe there is some evidence or proof in there, but I just missed it.

Image a deal where there are in fact two separate random deals taking place - one for the hole cards, and one for the board. A statistical analysis of all hole cards, and separate analysis of the board cards both show they are totally random, because indeed they are.

But each dealt set of board cards are placed into a pool from which the system picks a set that a) fits the already dealt hole cards so that there are no duplicated cards, and b) will create action after the pre-flop betting. Each set of board cards would eventually be used from the pool so it would still appear random.

Is there anything in your analysis that shows that this is not happening, or would it be possible to do further work with the hand histories that you have to show that its not.

I don't think K7s is lucky, though it certainly was in that hand. If I were to play it that way every time, I'm sure it would be -EV.

Let me share another hand from that cash session.

QQ in middle position, folded to me. I have maybe 30BB in front of me. This particular QQ was going to lose and I knew it (don't ask me how), so instead of raising, I limp. The button makes a standard raise. Both blinds fold. Given my short stack, I could try to reverse the mistake of limping, by putting in a re-raise here, but my dread made me just call. The flop was very favorable for my hand. All low cards, rainbow, no obvious straight draws. Still hating my hand, I check. The button makes a fairly strong pot-sized bet. I think briefly of folding, but I needed confirmation, so I instead check-raise all-in (roughly 3 times his bet). He snap calls and shows AA, which holds up.

While I was right that the QQ would lose, I can see now that my play of it pretty much guaranteed maximum loss.

Say I had made a standard raise preflop with QQ. Nearly always I would think he would re-raise with AA in that spot, giving me a chance to escape preflop, or at least give me a better idea of what he may be holding. By my poor preflop play, I broadened his playable hands to see that raggedy flop, making my QQ seem even stronger than it should have post-flop. He could have had TPTK with A8s, for all I knew. How can I possibly fold overpair to such a broad range?

I feel like a recovering alcoholic, but I can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Over 100k hands these are some the things that have happened to me

1. Running into Quads 3 times in a session when I had a full book each time

2. Getting Pocket Kings twice in a row on the same table and making quads both times

3. Seeing 2 Royal Flushes ( one of them mine ) in one session and then not seeing another one for the whole 100k hands

4. Flopping 10 sets in the space of 400 hands and then not flopping a set for 1.5k hands.

It's all random data rigatrds. Just like live poker, there are no patterns. Those who deal best with these situations win and those who don't deal well with the situations poker puts them in, lose money.

If one of your riggies can show me clear-cut evidence that online poker is rigged I you will pay you $500

I don't think anyone would say the sites couldn't track this stuff, it's just that unlike an MMORPG, it's easy for literally anyone to check up on the sites, because the odds of poker are well known and widely published, where the "randomness" of an MMORPG isn't really random and isn't really known.

It's like the difference between flipping a coin and being able to keep track of heads v. tails, and guessing a number someone's thinking of.
Wow, if only there was an easy way to track this, like possibly a website that could show you just how often the sites "help out" bad players.

If you could do that, you'd be like...a kajillionaire for busting Full Tilt wide open!
spadebidder's had the same offer going for a few months now, only you get his $500 if you can suggest a method that could provably increase the site's profits and isn't ******edly easy to detect.

For some reason, no one's even attempted.

Hear that rigggies, that's 1k. $500 from me and $500 from spadebidder if you provide proof that online poker is rigged!!

I already showed the 5 ace thing... what up?

the only thing i notice a lot over 4 years besides always able to grind up from my initial deposit then run disgustingly bad and lose it all...is that when you raise you seem to ALWAYS hit the flop in some way.. not saying u win by the river but it seems like 80% of the time you hit the flop in a big way when u raise (with crap or not). either you get a flush draw, open ender, or top pair... but everyone is in denial that online is rigged even tho like 85% of the players are losing

That seems like something exceedingly easy to prove. I know for a fact my hand histories do not support your theory. Do yours?