What on earth are you wittering on about now?

This seems to be your latest ploy:

Post some facile comment that is completely unrelated to what you are quoting.

If it's deliberate I'd suggest you move on to some new trick because this is just making you look (if such a thing were possible) even more of an idiot than you already do.

If it isn't deliberate the maybe a remedial English course would help.

Of course he doesn't want to take the bet.

If even you admit he would have the best of it it's pretty much a given that he'd never see his winnings.

I think this information is useful. I know 1720 big cards or less would feel like a bad run.

Do you have the confidence % for 1-, 2- and 3-SD?

I really didn't intend to start a big fight. PStars does not provide this kind of information, but they could and I wish they would.

You have no idea about whether he'd see the winnings. At least, spade has provided some useful information.

Some sites seem rigged. From all the ones I've played at, Stars seems to be the most legit.

well that clears it up for me

For samples large enough to approximate a continous normal distribution,
1 standard deviation = sqrt(npq)
where n = sample size, p = probability of event happening, and q = 1-p.

2 SD covers approximately 95% of samples in a normal distribution, or in other words there is only a 5% chance to be outside +/- 2SD from the mean. 3 SD covers 99.7%. 4SD covers 99.99%. 1SD is only 68%, and so anything under 2SD really doesn't have enough significance to mean anything at all in a single sample.

If you look at a normal bell curve with the mean being the centerline, the point where the curve changes from convex to concave on each side is 1 SD from the mean. The area between those two lines on each side is 68% of the area under the curve.

Guess I should have just posted this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule

Honestly I'd be interested in this bet, but it seems like a lot of hassle. I'd only do it if funds were escrowed with somebody reputable and we took steps to ensure all of the data was legitimate. Would need an impartial judge (could be the person escrowing).

If people are willing to do that I'd put up my $50. Couldn't blame anybody for not wanting to though, as this bet really wouldn't prove anything. It's just simply +EV getting 2:1

The -EV is that if he wins the coin flip he gets to say, "see it is rigged just like I said" and he will be forever convinced he was right, as if a heads/tails proposition proves something. "Look, it happened twice in a row even!"

Well spade, the math you've already provided does plenty to prove that wrong, regardless of the outcome of the bet. Of course, that doesn't stop people from believing what they want to believe.

LOL. Yeah, what with all the flame and insults that are standard fare, I might rub it in, just a little.

I realize that winning the prop would not prove anything--it's just a prop and it helps keep my interest alive. Winning the prop would not convince me of anything except maybe I could collect.

In a more serious way, I find your discussion of SD very helpful and appreciate it. I have been on a bit of a bad run and it's good to put the run in perspective.

I thought this had an appropriate scale on it for some posters.



2.5% of all people are under 70, really? That explains a lot.


.

Whatever. People are not really giving your degen bet any merit because

1) It is a waste of time for a small amount even with a 2-1 edge

2) You probably will not bother to do it when push comes to shove, you seem the all talk no action kind of guy.


Here is what I will offer. Not even 2-1 , I put up $5,000 you put up $7,500.

We use a trusted escrow agent and use data that you have no control over yourself (ie: pick an exact starting time and then have Josem or whoever send the zipped 2,000 hands to you, me, spade and others to analyze).

I will even tell you what I will do if and when you accept this stupid bet. I will sell off my $5,000 in chunks for $6,000 so others can get 5-4 on their money for a pure coin flip situation. This will take me I expect about 1 hour to do, factoring in a 30 minute break to eat.

That way, no matter if you win or lose I will be up $1,000 due to you being an emotional degen, so while I would root for you to lose, I actually would not care that deeply if you did once I am arbitraged out.

I will happily do this if and when you want, and this is pretty much exactly the type of thing I have done with various inefficient systems in the past.

$1,000 for this will be worth my efforts and time given the variable (ie: I am pretty sure you would vanish before it happened). $50, heh whatever post your wager in the sports betting or BBV forums and you will have people within a second.

Your routine of whine, propose something, then rationalize when others here say it proves nothing and is not worth the effort for 50 bucks is boring. Put up for real or shut up ad let the superbot people back in the chat.

Riggedologists are entertaining and once in a great while thought provoking. Whiny degens are just annoying.

All the best.

Several things first before i list my statement.

I was a winning play in the casino. I am a winning player (though not as much a winner as the numbers tell me i should be) in the online poker.

I do not belive that online poker at the POKER STARS is fixed/rigged/juiced/ etc.

However.

However when I see wondrous things. Things that seem to be improbable happen with such seeming frequency, it makes me think something is strange, amiss or , to speak frankly, suspicious.

SO. The question.

Are there other winning players who believe that the poker stars shuffle is suspect.

I said I am a winning player i have done things such as fold an ace with an Ace on the board. Why? Because i encountered many many times where my ace ( a strong ace such as ace king. or ace queen) was made no good when some mule went all in with ace 3 or ace 2 and

sunrise surprise what comes on the last card. Yes, sure. I know selective memory. But no because i took a list of these all ins due to being warned by many people i played with.


i am not interested in the opinion of the mules, or the loosing players who do not win. Just the profiting player who also find something suspicios.

Thank you

also there was a poll that i voted in, and though i assume it is secret. I voted that yes, it is not legit. THough in truth i am not positive either way, but at the current moment i lean towards that.

Also, as i write this I am very angry as My ace king of clubs lost to ace king diamond/heart. When four hearts came for my opponent. That is no proof,m that is just the latest piece of the puzzle.But we both made the right move so i am not angry at him/her.

Giblet, if things like that DIDN'T happen in poker, it would be rigged. Do you see why? It's not a matter of whether it's going to happen, it's a matter of how long it's going to take before it does. You play enough, you see it all.

At the end of the day, you need to gain a better understanding of statistical probability and stop focusing on individual hands. Focus on the population as a whole and apply correct statistical analysis to it. Until you do that, we'll be talking in circles.

You are an idiot.

A verbose idiot but an idiot nonetheless.

Is this from the new rigtard handbook or something? How can they all start this way?

A while ago in this thread there was a phase where people were wondering if it was "semi-rigged," primarily to try to sound less like one of those guys on street corners yelling about the end of the world.

They they go into their soap boxes to preach about how it is the end of the online poker world.

I'm guessing this is the leftover manifestation of that.

I assumed that guy was a gimmick speaking in bad broken English poetry speak on purpose, but then who knows - could be the genuine thing. "Thought experiment" guy did that routine better anyway.

Verbose idiot

Bad poetry?

Are we speaking of Ms. Clampitt here?

This is a poker discussion

Please stop resorting to abuse when making your points. It is perfectly possible to disagree with someone and still treat them with respect. Insults betray a lack of confidence in your reasoning.

Who are you directing that towards? The good guys or the bad guys?

fwiw, obviously without having looked at his hand histories, i'd be willing to bet that his past hands conform to within 4 standard deviations of normal.

that'd surely be even more generous to him than anything monteroy is offering.

You know you're on a bad thing when people are jumping over each other to make the bets more favourable to the rigtard.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...nt-act-685943/

BTW, it's coming.....

key word: Consumer-Protection....

Since most of you are so stuck on paranoia and lizard people, how about you go to that thread and tell the PPA why "there is no need..." like you've been telling me..

I'm curious has to how irrelevant and worthless Spade HH analysis is going to be when just about every site he pulled HH's from(with the help of an illegal botting site and data mine bots), will probably be BLACK BALLED from the US market....

I think all countries should regulate this stuff. I think it is good that the USA will be following the leadership of countries like the Isle of Man, England and so on in doing this stuff.

FWIW, I think the English regime of evaluating the regulation in other jurisdictions and determining those that are credible and those that are not is probably another key part of any regulation process.