Quote:
Originally Posted by spadebidder
Sounds like you have a pretty good understanding of what "random" means. Most people think it means things should come out neatly in the expected ratios and even card distributions. Nothing could be further from the truth in the short term, it takes a while for that to mostly be true, and by that time selective memory sets in. Remember that bumper sticker sht happens? That's what random means.
Few really appreciate how powerful the selective memory process is when they see weird stuff happen, and I guess one thing that makes my eyes roll is that the stuff riggedologist complain about are what regular players see every day because it should just happen with enough hands.
They also only notice the really bad plays that work. Just looking at my tournaments in the past 30 minutes, one featured a special player that would certainly generate lots of rigged beliefs after winning some hands the way he did.
PokerStars Game #34890711243: Tournament #209371360, $30+$3 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2009/11/03 19:54:34 ET
Table '209371360 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: crispin1 (3760 in chips)
Seat 4: Monteroy (1710 in chips)
Seat 6: yapik78 (8030 in chips)
yapik78: posts small blind 100
crispin1: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [Kd 3d]
Monteroy: folds
yapik78: calls 100
crispin1: raises 3560 to 3760 and is all-in
yapik78: calls 3560
*** FLOP *** [Qs Jd 4s]
*** TURN *** [Qs Jd 4s] [8h]
*** RIVER *** [Qs Jd 4s 8h] [8s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
yapik78: shows [Kc Qc] (two pair, Queens and Eights)
crispin1: shows [8d 3c] (three of a kind, Eights)
crispin1 collected 7520 from pot
Must be rigged after all. What they always leave out are the other hands that do not stand out like that where his bad play results in what it should.
PokerStars Game #34890584382: Tournament #209371360, $30+$3 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/11/03 19:50:58 ET
Table '209371360 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: el_simoca (2426 in chips)
Seat 2: crispin1 (1659 in chips)
Seat 4: Monteroy (2385 in chips)
Seat 6: yapik78 (7030 in chips)
Monteroy: posts small blind 75
yapik78: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [As 8s]
el_simoca: raises 150 to 300
crispin1: calls 300
Monteroy: folds
yapik78: folds
*** FLOP *** [6c 3h Jh]
el_simoca: checks
crispin1: checks
*** TURN *** [6c 3h Jh] [Ad]
el_simoca: checks
crispin1: checks
*** RIVER *** [6c 3h Jh Ad] [Jd]
el_simoca: checks
crispin1: bets 450
el_simoca: calls 450
*** SHOW DOWN ***
crispin1: shows [7d 2h] (a pair of Jacks)
el_simoca: shows [Qh Qd] (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
el_simoca collected 1725 from pot
There were several more plays of this level that won and lost him pots in the sit and go as there will be when a player like this plays like he does, nothing more nothing less.
All he is is a manaic that will get in very strange spots because the action is what matters to him. No fancy rigging needed, lots of guys are like this and generally their long term results are horrific. The fact that crazy things happen when maniacs play is a byproduct of how they play.
What would a riggedologist do? They would post the hand where he got runner runner 8s and leave out all the rest and assume it meant something. Well, ok most riggedologists would post hands from freerolls or 10 MPP tourneys they play, but the point still stands.