The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition
09-23-2009
, 06:38 PM
09-23-2009
, 07:04 PM
09-23-2009
, 07:43 PM
09-24-2009
, 06:16 AM
Quote:
I play Full Tilt (FT), so all my comments are based on that experience.
First, most players at small stakes are losers, for three reasons. Of course, it is hard to beat the rake. Second, there are a lot of players who won't fold a hand, so you will see more suckouts, which tends to reduce the value of good play and increase variance. Third, a combination of a better level of players than you would expect, and sniping by short-stackers makes it tough to beat. Be sure that you take notes on who the donkeys are, and use some kind of player statistics.
HOWEVER, there ARE winners at each level, so if you adjust your play to the level you are working, a really good player will win.
As far as the tables being rigged, I think that most players have the experience of having a real good run, and thinking because you are winning that you are a good player, and then having an equally bad run and losing all that equity. I see it in over half of the player equity charts I see, and I look at them every day. If you went to a casino one night and rolled good dice, and the following night they went cold and you lost it all, would you blame the dice? Would you be looking around for Danny Ocean?
As poker players, we get an exaggerated opinion of how important our skill is. Skill only counts for a small margin. If you estimate that you have an average 60% advantage on all your shoves, and if you consider a series of 6 shoves, Take 40% to the sixth power, and you will find that you're going to lose those six shoves in a row every so often. Pro players who feed their families on-line have losing days, and even losing streaks.
Bottom line to me is this: There ARE consistent winning players on Full Tilt. One of them is a good friend of mine, so they ARE real people. If you are not winning, look to the mirror first before you imagine evil programs in the FT computer designed to beat you.
I see AA vs AA too often, and it makes me suspicious. However, I'm never going to know if FT is skewing the odds to create more showdowns, so all I can do is adapt my game to what I see. I've seen quads vs. quads in live play, and every one-outer suckout there is, so only the insiders will ever know for sure.
For those of you who are convinced it's crooked, FT offers a 500K play chip tournament every night that allows a good player to win $2 by finishing in the top 18, which is not hard for a good player to do about 50% of the time. Win 50 of those, and you can have FT ship you a check for $100, without any risk on your part.
First, most players at small stakes are losers, for three reasons. Of course, it is hard to beat the rake. Second, there are a lot of players who won't fold a hand, so you will see more suckouts, which tends to reduce the value of good play and increase variance. Third, a combination of a better level of players than you would expect, and sniping by short-stackers makes it tough to beat. Be sure that you take notes on who the donkeys are, and use some kind of player statistics.
HOWEVER, there ARE winners at each level, so if you adjust your play to the level you are working, a really good player will win.
As far as the tables being rigged, I think that most players have the experience of having a real good run, and thinking because you are winning that you are a good player, and then having an equally bad run and losing all that equity. I see it in over half of the player equity charts I see, and I look at them every day. If you went to a casino one night and rolled good dice, and the following night they went cold and you lost it all, would you blame the dice? Would you be looking around for Danny Ocean?
As poker players, we get an exaggerated opinion of how important our skill is. Skill only counts for a small margin. If you estimate that you have an average 60% advantage on all your shoves, and if you consider a series of 6 shoves, Take 40% to the sixth power, and you will find that you're going to lose those six shoves in a row every so often. Pro players who feed their families on-line have losing days, and even losing streaks.
Bottom line to me is this: There ARE consistent winning players on Full Tilt. One of them is a good friend of mine, so they ARE real people. If you are not winning, look to the mirror first before you imagine evil programs in the FT computer designed to beat you.
I see AA vs AA too often, and it makes me suspicious. However, I'm never going to know if FT is skewing the odds to create more showdowns, so all I can do is adapt my game to what I see. I've seen quads vs. quads in live play, and every one-outer suckout there is, so only the insiders will ever know for sure.
For those of you who are convinced it's crooked, FT offers a 500K play chip tournament every night that allows a good player to win $2 by finishing in the top 18, which is not hard for a good player to do about 50% of the time. Win 50 of those, and you can have FT ship you a check for $100, without any risk on your part.
09-26-2009
, 07:09 AM
