I've been reading a bunch of threads, posts, reviews, scam alerts, what have you on Poker Stars. I came to this site by doing a search for "pokerstars scam". It's quite obvious what I have on my mind.
Let me start by saying I'm not a pro poker player, not by any stretch. From reading some of the posts here, I fully understand there are going to be those that are going to flame this and stab me with a pitch fork. I'm ok with this. I'd just like to share my observations.
I guess it's been three years that I've been playing on Poker Stars now. At first it was an easy 8 to 10 hours a day, but things have changed significantly and I don't have near the time to commit. I usually just play at night, and only the tournaments as the ring tables are full of morons that have no idea how to play poker and will call anything just because they can refill if they're wrong.
I only play with play money. I never play real money, I never have any financial stake. It is strictly for my entertainment, which is why I don't mind playing there and will continue to do so.
With all that said. There are a lot of things I've seen on the site that APPEAR to completely defy odds.
For a while as I was learning the game I used an odds calculator. PS staff had assured me that the only reason I was doing horribly was because I needed to learn what to hold, what to fold. That's fair enough, there was absolutely an element of truth to that.
What the odds calculator did for me was teach me how to play a tight game of poker. That's where it ended. After thousands of hands it became increasingly obvious that an odds calculator was of little use on the site.
Please note, once again, these are mere observations and hunches. I'm not going to spam hand histories, give you the play by play or what have you. However, here's what I've noticed:
- Seasoned poker players, stating odds to the fraction of a point, noting that statistically the hands are next to impossible at their current frequency. I've noted this bizarre trend over a dozen different sites, by dozens of different players. While this is not a "slam dunk", it absolutely raises red flags (or should, if you're even somewhat logical)
- One out of every three hands in the games I've played are pair/single flops. This strikes me as being exceedingly high. QQ5, AAK, T8T, etc. I'm a logical person. I don't believe in flukes. This frequency is too high to be a fluke. I'm satisfied that flops like this can assure at least two callers a piece of the action. Typical strategy would be a decent raise preflop to limit the contenders and increase your odds, along with a respectable follow up, depending on position and the action after the flop. It's reasonable to expect that even a bad hand can be a winner when played right. I respectfully note that in ring games with play chips, all bets are off unless you're sitting in a tight game
- I've noted that I've fluked some ridiculous hands against unbelievable odds. Tonight I gave up on a crappy table. The game play was horrible. I couldn't hit to save my life. 10k was expendable. I went all in with a J8o. An absurd hand with preflop odds of 10% or less. I fully expected to lose. Two callers came in with substantially better hands, one a face pair, the other suited connectors. Good, I'm done. Who was I kidding? I actually made that hand. With the river, PS filled in a straight. Absurd. Absolutely absurd. By all rights I should have lost. Accusations flew of "lotto poker". We're sitting here in disbelief, realizing the statistical odds of that happening were astoundingly low.
I can accept a one off. I can live with a one in a million shot happening once, although the fellow players at the table were choked. HOWEVER. What I can't swallow is the alarming frequency at which that has happened to me. I note that 50% of the time I say "Meh, screw it. I'll start over in a new tourney, no big deal" I pull off ridiculous hands.
- Tonight I dominate a tournament. The entire game I'm chip leader with at least four times the chip of the nearest stack. I'm playing tight, real tight. I even scrap suited connectors. I watch as the run of strange odds makes it's way around the table, players hitting no matter what they play. Suddenly it's over, they get comfortable and they're wiped out in a showdown as lady luck moves on. This goes on until the final three. My runner-up loses a hand to the short stack. A few thousand chips, no big deal. From that point on, the short stack hit EVERY SINGLE HAND until suddenly it was over, wiped out in one all-in bid by the runner-up.
It was a hell of a battle. Suddenly, the runner-up is in the lead. I'd been folding everything, checking on the bb as I had nothing but h/l os and rags. Not a big deal. Suddenly I hold pocket rockets. My opponent goes all in. I call. Big slick against AA. Not a bad gig. Preflop odds are in my favor. Flop is 3 suits in his favor. Turn is an A. River was inconsequential.
As an isolated incident, that's a bad beat and perfectly acceptable in the game of poker. When it becomes questionable is when it happens repeatedly. You're doing well, you get dealt a slew of garbage, then get hands that "lead you on". Another one is a flush draw and nothing else but a hit for your opponent. An outside straight and the out never comes. Decent enough odds, you call the reasonable bets, fold when someone pushes you out.
The point is this. These "leading" hands get expensive. It appears that PS gets to know what kinds of hands you'll call. I'm prepared to accept this as a load of hooey. However, with the frequency at which this happens, broken when you all of a sudden decide to play sloppy and break your pattern, SEEMS to be more than chance. I could be wrong, hammer away at will.
- A friend got tired of their nick. After over a year of playing it, they decided for a name change. PS cited an inability to do so. They decide it's just easier to open a new account. It's only play chips, no big deal...so they thought.
From the time of opening the account, in one night they won almost every single tournament they played in. When they didn't place first, they placed second. Pokerstars locked the account. It's against the rules to have two accounts. They moved quickly to move the winnings back into the old account. Well handled there, no complaints. They again refused to change the name or picture. Not a big deal, my friend felt that was liveable. Not ideal, but certainly liveable.
Almost by fluke, out of the next two dozen tournies played, they won once, other than that didn't place. I suppose it could be bad luck, bad vibes, whatever. I'm not a big believer in flukes. I'm not prepared to chalk it up to simple luck.
I have a ton more examples, but really I don't think they're needed to make the point. I've placed a lot of thought into it, simply because I'm an exceedingly analytical and logical type of person. If it's only play chips, what advantage would there be to skewering a game? What could possibly be in it for PS?
What I see is less than random flops. I see patterns emerging. I see exceedingly bad play and horrible calls being rewarded. I see people call huge pushes with absolutely nothing.. I mean 8/3o for example.. And pairing up on the turn or river. I see flopped quads. I've personally flopped quads. I've flopped full houses. Go me. Look at me, the awesome poker player.
I'm not buying it.
What I FEEL is in it for Poker Stars is the ability to convince anyone, no matter how good or bad a player they are, that they're a poker god. Lady luck is on their side. Every player is inundated with tantalizing deals to draw them into the real money. If your game sucked, if you always lost, there would be nothing tantalizing you. The carrot in front of your nose so to speak. No amazing action, no dramatic showdowns, no dipping into the wallet.
It is my now firm belief that all the action you see at play money tables is engineered for one thing. Excitement that draws you to your credit card. It's a business like any other. As a businessman, I respect business. I respect the desire to make money. Pokerstars isn't there for our entertainment. It's an enterprise with one goal in mind, making money.
This is, I believe, as it should be. If there's no gain for the company, there's no point. Please feel free to try and convince me otherwise that play money tables are only there for your benefit. Something for you to entertain yourself over a beer and pretzels.
I believe when you look at it from the eyes of a businessman, plus the comments of countless independent players (yes, some of them just don't have a clue how to play poker, granted), I think it's not a stretch to believe that it's not a completely random game at PS. In fact, I'm beginning to believe that it's an ingeniously engineered enterprise.
Take it for what it's worth, if anything. I've observed countless examples to support the theory. At this point it's ONLY a theory. I've observed that the longer you play without digging into your wallet, the less "lady luck" seems to shine on you....although she never gives up. It's almost like "God's love".
Your thoughts, comments, etc. are most welcomed.
Last edited by skepticalatbest; 08-23-2009 at 03:13 AM.
