The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition - Page 171 - Internet Poker

"rigtard" as I would be called here. I prefer skeptic.

I started my painstaking hand analysis. So far I am just looking at pf all-ins (this is all heads up) and just have a few days of data. My record is 48-56, my average equity 54%. I have to admit, though its running bad, I thought my record would be much worse and my equity a little higher. This does include 3 cases of QQ against a higher pair (bringing down my average equity). There were no case of my going all in preflop with a bigger pair than my opponent. I have about 45 days worth of data, looked at 5 so far.. I will be looking at big pairs (1010+), and flopping two pair or better, which all seem to lose a lot more often than they should given that I am playing heads up. I know that I am a net loser when flopping trips, and with KK (huge loser with KK heads up).

So far I am surprised at the mildness of the running bad but I don't think I have hit a bad stretch in my data yet.

Quote

06-05-2009 , 03:58 PM

#4252

Markusgc

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Quote:

Originally Posted by burden2

"rigtard" as I would be called here. I prefer skeptic.

that's healthy, but different from a Rigtard. the difference is a skeptic might lean towards that belief but would reserve judgment until verifiable evidence is presented. Rigtards just go on a "feeling."

Quote:

So far I am just looking at pf all-ins (this is all heads up) and just have a few days of data. My record is 48-56, my average equity 54%. I have to admit, though its running bad, I thought my record would be much worse and my equity a little higher. This does include 3 cases of QQ against a higher pair (bringing down my average equity)... I have about 45 days worth of data, looked at 5 so far...

sick sample size

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06-05-2009 , 04:49 PM

#4253

batair

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Quote:

Originally Posted by K13

Its so ****en bull**** how you can have KK, QQ lost to Ax hand after hand after hand.

That's actually the biggest flaw in the PS RNG along with flush draws, you play somewhere else and the RNG plays completely different. So which is "random"?

Quote:

Originally Posted by K13

you can't even ****en play poker on PS even when you know what people have.

Another KK lost to Ax.

EDIT

and another and another

stop ****en defending this ****. Its beyond ****en probabilites.

play Ax fold AA KK QQ you will thank me later, i would like a cut of your profits for my excellent tip.

Quote

06-05-2009 , 04:51 PM

#4254

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by burden2

So far I am just looking at pf all-ins (this is all heads up) and just have a few days of data. My record is 48-56, my average equity 54%. I have to admit, though its running bad...

Not all that bad for the sample size. In a sample of this size, your chance of losing >=56/104 with 54% average equity is about 7%. That means every time you look at a 104 hand trial with 54% average win equity, 7% of those trials will have 56 or more losses. When you get to 500 allins it should be pretty close to equity. Make sure you don't cherry pick sets from a larger population, you must use all that you have records for, or pick smaller samples totally randomly. Even picking the smaller sets sequentially as you appear to be doing, introduces biases and isn't representative of the whole population.

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06-05-2009 , 05:01 PM

#4255

DMoogle

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spadebidder

You're quite wrong here. We don't need to know any hole cards at all to analyse the board and determine if the community cards follow their expected distributions. Having all hole cards would allow a determination of whether all 1326 possible hands are dealt evenly, but that isn't of much use by itself anyway, as the site could switch hands between targeted players and not change the hole card distributions. Knowing all the seen community cards and all the hole cards that made it to showdown, is sufficient to do a very comprehensive (and conclusive) analysis of whether the deal is fair.

The board might be *slightly* weighted towards low cards, because the more high cards that are out in players' hands, the higher the chance of there even being a board.

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06-05-2009 , 05:12 PM

#4256

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by DMoogle

The board might be *slightly* weighted towards low cards, because the more high cards that are out in players' hands, the higher the chance of there even being a board.

Code:

[Card]   Flop1   Flop2   Flop3    Turn   River    Mean

[ 2c ]  1.943%  1.925%  1.964%  1.953%  1.954%  1.948%
[ 2d ]  1.958%  1.939%  1.931%  1.965%  1.952%  1.949%
[ 2s ]  1.933%  1.957%  1.947%  1.968%  1.965%  1.954%
[ 2h ]  1.963%  1.931%  1.944%  1.983%  1.956%  1.955%
[ 3c ]  1.929%  1.936%  1.947%  1.961%  1.961%  1.947%
[ 3d ]  1.963%  1.947%  1.947%  1.946%  1.949%  1.950%
[ 3s ]  1.945%  1.946%  1.959%  1.939%  2.004%  1.959%
[ 3h ]  1.960%  1.942%  1.952%  1.962%  1.927%  1.949%
[ 4c ]  1.952%  1.922%  1.938%  1.952%  1.937%  1.940%
[ 4d ]  1.919%  1.931%  1.936%  1.946%  1.982%  1.943%
[ 4s ]  1.944%  1.953%  1.950%  1.946%  1.947%  1.948%
[ 4h ]  1.939%  1.945%  1.941%  1.939%  1.959%  1.945%
[ 5c ]  1.953%  1.917%  1.932%  1.929%  1.923%  1.931%
[ 5d ]  1.947%  1.935%  1.915%  1.934%  1.940%  1.934%
[ 5s ]  1.950%  1.954%  1.940%  1.955%  1.936%  1.947%
[ 5h ]  1.949%  1.946%  1.921%  1.936%  1.954%  1.941%
[ 6c ]  1.952%  1.929%  1.926%  1.944%  1.916%  1.934%
[ 6d ]  1.942%  1.922%  1.943%  1.934%  1.949%  1.938%
[ 6s ]  1.911%  1.927%  1.932%  1.920%  1.953%  1.929%
[ 6h ]  1.934%  1.938%  1.940%  1.946%  1.928%  1.937%
[ 7c ]  1.924%  1.912%  1.935%  1.916%  1.909%  1.919%
[ 7d ]  1.933%  1.935%  1.944%  1.932%  1.925%  1.934%
[ 7s ]  1.905%  1.932%  1.926%  1.926%  1.939%  1.926%
[ 7h ]  1.931%  1.939%  1.924%  1.896%  1.952%  1.929%
[ 8c ]  1.927%  1.917%  1.917%  1.916%  1.942%  1.924%
[ 8d ]  1.938%  1.931%  1.924%  1.949%  1.924%  1.933%
[ 8s ]  1.899%  1.898%  1.905%  1.929%  1.919%  1.910%
[ 8h ]  1.924%  1.938%  1.936%  1.906%  1.936%  1.928%
[ 9c ]  1.915%  1.936%  1.917%  1.920%  1.924%  1.922%
[ 9d ]  1.899%  1.927%  1.916%  1.932%  1.914%  1.918%
[ 9s ]  1.917%  1.918%  1.936%  1.929%  1.928%  1.926%
[ 9h ]  1.926%  1.929%  1.910%  1.932%  1.917%  1.923%
[ Tc ]  1.908%  1.919%  1.932%  1.903%  1.934%  1.919%
[ Td ]  1.917%  1.921%  1.927%  1.917%  1.925%  1.921%
[ Ts ]  1.929%  1.923%  1.920%  1.920%  1.881%  1.915%
[ Th ]  1.894%  1.898%  1.926%  1.932%  1.926%  1.915%
[ Jc ]  1.915%  1.930%  1.913%  1.898%  1.883%  1.908%
[ Jd ]  1.907%  1.937%  1.918%  1.890%  1.907%  1.912%
[ Js ]  1.908%  1.912%  1.911%  1.909%  1.896%  1.907%
[ Jh ]  1.890%  1.906%  1.921%  1.913%  1.924%  1.911%
[ Qc ]  1.898%  1.896%  1.918%  1.894%  1.900%  1.901%
[ Qd ]  1.911%  1.898%  1.926%  1.910%  1.907%  1.911%
[ Qs ]  1.925%  1.921%  1.909%  1.911%  1.896%  1.912%
[ Qh ]  1.913%  1.891%  1.914%  1.904%  1.893%  1.903%
[ Kc ]  1.915%  1.893%  1.896%  1.896%  1.883%  1.897%
[ Kd ]  1.921%  1.920%  1.888%  1.898%  1.944%  1.914%
[ Ks ]  1.905%  1.914%  1.894%  1.905%  1.884%  1.900%
[ Kh ]  1.898%  1.921%  1.899%  1.915%  1.861%  1.899%
[ Ac ]  1.884%  1.890%  1.882%  1.838%  1.866%  1.872%
[ Ad ]  1.889%  1.881%  1.871%  1.847%  1.832%  1.864%
[ As ]  1.869%  1.878%  1.876%  1.899%  1.869%  1.878%
[ Ah ]  1.878%  1.896%  1.864%  1.862%  1.866%  1.873%
[ ALL]                                        100.000%

The more interesting stuff I'm working on is the board types analysis, with the frequencies of about 30 board types that affect hand outcomes.

Again the sample above is only two million hands, so don't try to read it too granularly at this point. I just wanted to illustrate the effect you refer to.

Last edited by spadebidder; 06-05-2009 at 05:18 PM.

Quote

06-05-2009 , 05:20 PM

#4257

DMoogle

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Is that all from FR? There'd be a significant different between a table of 9 players and a table of 2 players.

Quote

06-05-2009 , 05:25 PM

#4258

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by DMoogle

Is that all from FR? There'd be a significant different between a table of 9 players and a table of 2 players.

No, that example is mixed. The skew for heads-up is bigger, with dueces showing up on the board about 14 times per 10,000 more often than Aces. Still a very small effect. We're analysing by number of seats and a lot of other variables.

Quote

06-05-2009 , 05:26 PM

#4259

Markusgc

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spadebidder

That is a well-known effect and it shows a predictable slope, with the difference being very small. In large samples you'll see dueces hitting the board spots about 7 in 10,000 more often than Aces, and the rest are sloped in between. Knowing that, it is easy to evaluate other skews or discrepancies.

Here's a small sample from 2 million hands. This is also part of my larger analysis that isn't ready to publish:

...

The more interesting stuff I'm working on is the board types analysis, with the frequencies of about 30 board types that affect hand outcomes.

Again the sample above is only two million hands, so don't try to read it too granularly at this point. I just wanted to illustrate the effect you refer to.

BORING!!!!!

Quote

06-05-2009 , 05:40 PM

#4260

peetar69

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,553

Something smells bad for sure. Today is TYPICAL.

AA 14 (pt didnt register 2 of them) won preflop 5 times.
1 small sd won
1 pf AI won
7 times AI ahead and ended up losing ( not to draws, all kk qq ect.)

The typical part is not that I had a horrible strech with a 14 hand sample. Its the every other day doomsessions. I had a run good session last night. I had shut down today after 13 AA hands, took a break, started loading tables and my first AA got all in vs KK on a Qhi flop, and you know what happened. I shut everything down that second.

I play just about every day, and these unGodly runs happen at least a couple of times a week. Its like waves in the ocean. Its the consistency of days like today that "feel" like something isn't right.

This is mostly just a vent / rant, but seems like there is a fource out there that wants me to grind hands but only breakeven.

its 6/5/09, my MGR is $1078.51 on the month, and all I have to show for it is some FPPs and aPT that doesn't work. (after today I'm down for the month, but PT has me in the green).

end rant/

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06-05-2009 , 06:16 PM

#4261

KingOfFelt

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Quote:

Originally Posted by peetar69

You know there is a whole different forum for bad beat stories?

The force you speak of is called skill.

And /rant I think is what you were aiming for. What you wrote was "end rant end".

Quote

06-05-2009 , 07:13 PM

#4262

burden2

banned

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 969

KK K9o lose 2200
KK A10 lose 2560
KK Q10 lose 1600
KK 64o lose 2400
KK ? win 50
KK ? win 420
KK ? win 200
KK K5 win 1450
KK ? win 20
KK 22o win 420
KK J3 win 320
KK Kq win 2040

these are my last few with KK. I played them all well imo. Notice how I net lose with it. That is not even including the really bad stretch with KK. All heads up. All day long, every day, no regression to the mean. The second column is the opponents holding.

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06-05-2009 , 07:18 PM

#4263

DMoogle

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Quote:

Originally Posted by burden2

I played them all well imo.

I'm sure you played them well in your opinion. I doubt you actually played them all well.

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06-05-2009 , 07:20 PM

#4264

KingOfFelt

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Quote:

Originally Posted by burden2

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06-05-2009 , 09:09 PM

#4265

Monteroy

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Quote:

Originally Posted by burden2

Then just charge into and become a full believer in riggedology already. You will see things like this at every site at times so you no matter where you play you will eventually feel like there is a massive conspiracy to screw you specifically for whatever reason.

I had a day last week where I could not win with KK as well. It happens. My sharkscope shows a nice downturn on that day as a result. That is called variance.

Lots of paranoid people in the world, so you will not be alone. Not sure what else you want, is it validation that you special at poker?

Stop dilly dallying already and get on with it. Take some time and read Scoopers posts. After that choose to become a full fledged riggedologist like him or snap out of it and stop whining about short term variance. Just make up your mind already on this.

All the best.

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06-05-2009 , 09:46 PM

#4266

K13

banned

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 531

Quote:

Originally Posted by burden2

You'd be lucky to win50% if that with Kings.

Another lost to JJ on the river. on and on and on.

80% my ****en ass.

Quote

06-05-2009 , 09:50 PM

#4267

K13

banned

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 531

This is how not random it is.

Have KK. Buddy is over. "You want to see KK lose?"

pre, JJ. perfect. "don't worry that J is coming on the river"

Yup, its as real as the WWE.

Quote

06-05-2009 , 10:02 PM

#4268

K13

banned

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 531

Why is it when someone is in with the worst in like a 3/4 person shove they win almost 50% of the time?

Shoved 85o into four people and ofcourse a hit a boat. what a joke. Next hand someone has aa and kk and idiot jumps in with q3o and hits trip queens obviously. This happens way too often. yeah yeah so many hands. its not when it happens a bunch of times in a turbo game with only thirty hands.

I won't even bother typing anymore. No one can prove anything anyway. As long as the sites are making millions they could really give a ****.

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06-05-2009 , 10:04 PM

#4269

toltec444

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 496

Quote:

Originally Posted by peetar69

Agreed!!!! I feel the same way. Never felt like this playing live.

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06-05-2009 , 10:06 PM

#4270

otatop

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Quote:

Originally Posted by K13

You'd be lucky to win50% if that with Kings.

Another lost to JJ on the river. on and on and on.

80% my ****en ass.

Quote:

Originally Posted by otatop

If you request all your thousands of HH's from PS and post a screenshot from PT3 or HEM showing AA, KK, and QQ winning less than 70% of the time, I'll ship you $100 on Stars.

That doesn't mean you can show me that you've lost money with them, or that you can show me a screenshot with 70 hands where your kings got beat by A3o, I'm talking a 20,000 hand+ database where you got each hand about 100 times, and managed to lose 30 of those 100 times.

Offer still stands, easiest $100 you'll ever make.

Quote

06-05-2009 , 10:08 PM

#4271

toltec444

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 496

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monteroy

You will see things like this at every site at times so you no matter where you play you will eventually feel like there is a massive conspiracy to screw you specifically for whatever reason.

All the best.

I think you missed the KEY point, it´s not at times. It´s at regular basis, often, very frequent, very normal, very expected. Sometimes I can know what will happen, I see two pair and a backdoor flush and I say, thats not right, now its going to happen, perfect situation, the dog will hit the flush. I am the Daniel Negreanu of the bad beats, I can read them because they are so predictable.

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06-05-2009 , 10:09 PM

#4272

Arouet

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Now I know why Bucklox had such amazing results. I used to think he was joking, but now I think he had just figured out the rigged algorithm and was pwing hard because of it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqRjP...e=channel_page

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06-05-2009 , 10:13 PM

#4273

toltec444

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 496

You are right Monteroy, those you call rigtards and I call "people that feel something is wrong and want to know for sure if it really is wrong or not (thats a pretty long definition)are not alone.

Why do you think theis post has 80K views and 4100 replies? Thats a huge success.

I think I know your answer, because the majority of people are paranoid. But if you call the majority of people paranoid, doesn´t that make YOU the paranoid one?

Quote

06-05-2009 , 10:17 PM

#4274

too many beers

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo_Boy

Oh dear it looks like you have had TOO MANY BEERS. Hahahahaha! Do you see what i did there? I used your name to insult you and used CAPITALS to make it even more funny. It's like i'm telling you your own bad joke. Thanks for the idea. I hope it "might help me to sound above a 2 year old".

On a less moronic note, the paragraphs quoted below clearly imply that you believe any / all poker sites may be cheating their customers and that any / all governments are turning a blind eye as much as they possibly can.

The reason you "have never accused anyone of anything" directly is because you don't have any evidence. Instead you are discrediting the integrity of thousands of Government and Online Casino Employees whilst hiding behind a veil of "I don't know but..." type nonsense.

If you enjoy or profit from online poker please stop treating it with such utter disdain because you are only further tarnishing the reputation of an industry which already has to battle against criticism which is often unfair. If someone like you who plays poker and claims not to believe its rigged can freely make sweeping acusations, is it any wonder many "outsiders" feel the way they do about the industry.

wow what a wonderful and well thought out reply compared to your other replies , who wrote it for you ?

see this is a question that merits debate , or an answer , rather than your first attempts at lackluster trolling , ill bring your mind back to edible .

ok i have said i enjoy online poker , i play on four sites , i have never put down those sites or the integrity of them , would you like me to name those sites and say they are great and above board or i think so anyways ?

there are a few sites i have closed my accounts on , for bad service , bad payments , one i couldnt win on regardless of how bad or well i played and i will name 2 ap and ub , i refuse to give them one cent
they handled the cheating badly
the guy who did it was never punished ( i believe they and the cheater came to a mutual agreement ) people never left them in droves and sent them bankrupt ( which is one of the major arguments of why a poker site wouldnt cheat )

as for the argument side of things i have stated my opinion
ill use the word skeptic as someone used before as ****** means to stop or slow down or hamper
skeptic ... poker is rigged ( i have no proof)
non skeptic ... no its not its a big business they would never cheat (i have no proof )
non skeptic (someone would have detected it in poker tracker ) no you wouldnt , without seeing every hand dealt on a site including hole cards there is no way to prove a sites rng is working fairly

ok so everyone is at loggerheads so we have a debate , discussion , opinion on it some are amusing , some are fun to read and other trolls are just bad

your first reply to me was to point out i wrote edible chocolate , oh wow all chocolate is edible ha ha , well except for carob

in america its illegal to play online poker , a lot of people here still do ? why they think the law is stupid , they hide their playing so they dont get caught , lie to the banks about where their checks come from , so these people who are breaking the law because they make money ? if the poker players themselves are breaking the law , why should i take the opinion of a lawbreaker that everything is above board with a site ?

are you an american bingoboy ?

Quote

06-05-2009 , 10:33 PM

#4275

too many beers

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 42

actually i would like to ask
is there any poker site that is legally allowed to accept american players or do they just allow them still to play ?

thanx

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