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Originally Posted by toltec444
Same here. And I have played live poker a lot before taking online more seriously. And I can tell that in live play AA loses a lot of PF all ins, but never so frequent as in online poker. AA losing to PP happens, but, if you play it 10 times it loses around 2 times. That gives you the sensation of safety, when that happens you feel that is infrequent, in online poker when I go all in with AA I have fear! It happens 3 in 4 times in a sequence, very often.
No way, you're telling me short term variance happens? This is a stunning revelation.
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That explanation of :"you play more hands online" does not work. If somthing is to happen 20% of time you will have the intuitively sense of rarity. Thats what you dont have in online play. And its not just about me, you see it happens all the time when others players are in the hand and you are out.
20% isn't that rare. Let's say you see 2,000 hands a day, and you only actually play 20% of them. So that's 400 hands. For simplicity's sake, we'll say that any hand you play actually plays out to showdown, and you're an 80% favorite preflop every time. You're still supposed to lose about 80 hands. That's almost 3 hours worth of live hands, and you lost them all, good God! Ignore the fact that you
won 320 hands, because obviously you should win all your 80/20s.
Basically it's just confirmation bias. I don't remember what the hell my opponent had the last 10 times I won with AA, but I distinctly remember every single action in the hand where my KK was beaten by 52s.
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About the data analisys:
The only trustfull data analisys that could be made is with a huge sample of the poker room hands, WITH ALL HOLES CARDS INCLUDED AT ALL STAGES OF THE GAME. I doubt they would give these information to anyone, because of privacy problems. So we can only make partial and uncomplete data analisys that are far away from being conclusive.
Cigital was given
every cash hand played on Stars above 25NL for December 2008, with all hole cards. They just checked whether the winning hand was determined by luck or skill, but I'm sure if a reputable company (i.e. not just some dude from 2+2 who might use the hands as a form of datamining) came to them offering to do an audit of their RNG, Stars would be more than happy to oblige.
But of course that company would just be a shell company to cover up the rigging, so it could never be trusted, and the cycle would go on.