Quote:
Originally Posted by BucketFoot
Say a 7c is supposed to come on the river but instead a 9d shows up instead.
Now 200 hands later a 9d is about to be dealt but instead the 7c shows up.
Please tell me how this would be detectable.
It's possible it could be done to cancel out like that, but it also probably wouldn't help the site increase rake. And it would almost certainly be detectable anyway, depending on the context. If the added card was always put in to complete a certain type of hand, the correction would have to negate one of that same type of hand, or else you would have two board types skewed from what they should be, and it would be detectable. And hole cards completing certain hands would be happening at different rates they they are supposed to, which would also be detectable.
Let's say that 9d is put in to make a 3-flush on the board, to complete a hand for someone holding a suited hand. That increases the number of 3-flushed boards. So when the 7c is put back into the count 200 hands later to make the card distribution right, it
still won't make the board distribution right unless it is dealt at a time when a 3-flush board was supposed to show up, but doesn't. The number of expected 3-flush boards can be calculated for a random deal (5.176% on the flop, 12.36% to turn the 3rd suited board card, etc.). The number of 9d hitting the turn spot can be calculated for a random deal (1.923%). The number of 7c hitting the river spot can be calculated for a random deal (1.923%). The times a person holding suited hole cards should complete a flush can be calculated for the flop, turn and river, etc, etc. There are many interdependencies to be managed, not to mention throwing in betting, player profiles, and other factors that the site would need to consider for such a scheme. They'd need the NSA's computers to keep up with it.
Everything has to come out right. It's very very difficult (if not impossible) to rig any cards and then balance them out statistically later, and at the same time accomplish increasing rake for the site.