Realize those are the same 46 matchups shown for the 94-96% range. They are two opponents, one with 4-6% equity and the other with 94-96% equity.

The only matchups in that range are pair vs same high card dominated, such as QQ vs Q2o or KK vs K2o or JJ vs J2o. It could also be QQ/Q3 or KK/K3 if the 3 matches one of the favorite's suits. They all have to be one of those. The underdogs are all just under 6%. None of them are 3-way. That would be possible with QQ vs Q2o vs Q2o but the counts would show the difference. Since they match (46) they are all two way hands.

interesting, the only pp dominated hands ive ever bothered to run odds for are ones that connect enough to make a straight (which usually in the 8-10% range). But a quick check of your example shows that they can indeed go as low as 4 percent or so.

The thread is finally getting some sensible analysis and intelligent discussion and most of the rigtards soon go quiet. Its nice to have a little story though, thanks.

He just likes chatting for the sake of chatting and belonging, so who knows if he is a rigtard or not. Not sure he even cares whether sites are rigged.

However, true hard core rigged believers will never let go of their beliefs regardless of the data presented in the face of what they "know" which is their right. Maybe they will adjust their rigged beliefs a bit in reaction (ie: sure the data falls within expected results but the sites carefully let "fish" magically win more - that type of thing).

It is still interesting to see the large data results though.

With Indiana's plan to set up an ftp site with a large hand database, and provide software to analyse it, more and more rigged theories are going to get shot down.

See http://pokerftp.com/index_files/Page300.htm

Files can't be downloaded yet, but soon. For non-qualified researchers, you'll be able to download a few million hands to experiment and perfect the query you are interested in, then get the site (Indiana) to run it against the full database. They currently have 1 billion and hope to get 10 billion before long. They also will allow you to separate by site, but they won't identify the respective sites.

I respect your statistical expertise, but I can assure you that the odds of hard core rigged believers ever changing their views are much , much smaller then you suspect. You are using logic as a guide, but that is not the same handbook they use to form their beliefs.

Speak to a conspiracy addict for 5 to 10 minutes and you will see that no matter what evidence or logic or proof you offer, all that will happen is that they will at most adjust their theories to incorporate the results (:ie sure Stars sets up the games to look fair but they choose who will win - prove that wrong for example). A real life conspiracy guy recently told me "mind control" when all else failed to explain some evil doings - good luck disproving that... The other choice is they will assume you are a "shill" in on it.

That said, the results are still good to see and no doubt they will help some realize that perhaps the games are in fact dealt in a fair manner, and it is good to see those actually capable of doing proper statistical analysis looking at this.

how would they go about rigging against one player?

Their just picking on you - Poker Stars AND FullTilt, so you p.o.'d Chris furgeson and Danny Negranaeu at some private meeting and now their out to get you. You didnt mention that in your Bad Beat post. Look up "variance" it's part of the game.

Who are you dude ? And wtf does that supose to mean ? Your post is like Coca-Cola+Beer+Mashed Potatoe+Redbull+Carrot Juice.

After taking my latest bad beat, I realized that online every other allin is a bad beat - what's up with that? Just like on TV, except on TV they edit out most of the hands where the dominating favorite wins. Flopped TPTK and NFD and got checkraised allin by MPPK and of course he rivers a T as a ~9-1 dog. You always have a sweat online - what's it gonna be this time, the backdoor flush, running straight cards, two board pairs over my pocket pair for a high-card win?

This weekend I was in a $600 pot with AA vs KK allin preflop and wasn't even worried. Flopped an ace and that was that. Online you can NEVER be comfortable.

I guess we'll just have to declare an armistice - you guys can have the math, and I'll take the money. While you may be "pot equity millionaires" with disabled cashout buttons I'll be swimming in Scrooge McDuck-like piles of chips, which I can use to buy things like currant jelly and rhubarb pie.



So long for now, stay tuned for my farepoorly address.

- Bitterness is joy with a bad attitude

So you are saying live play is rigged. As in Aces always hold up in this situation even though they should lose about 20% of the time?

Chris, where do you play live? I might have to make a special trip to put some live bad beats on you.

Everyone just do like me, i exclude my self for 3 days after series of bad beats. It is a second time i am doing this, and i played 2 days in a week ... It doesnt mean that you will get less bad beats, but atleast you have some time to think with a clear head before taking another beat and broking a monitor (2 monitors in less than a month).

rigged

qft

Frequent self exclusions are a good way to get banned for being a potential problem gambler on some sites.

Cache creek in CA. The Feds will be waiting for you,

I'm one of them......

If I didn't see this for myself, I wouldn't believe it. This happened late in a $2 tounrey in consecutive hands (about 100 players from the money). Is it bad play with luck being the whore that she is? Probably... Is it a big stack looking to capitalize on pushes? - maybe...But this sort of thing gets you shaking your head.

I would never believe that the site is rigging play, but you gotta wonder about packet stealers ;-) I have seen a rash of these types of plays as of late...

PokerStars Game #27907848265: Tournament #160529646, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2009/05/06 22:43:58 ET
Table '160529646 15' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Martinelli80 (18532 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero (3793 in chips)
Seat 3: whattheblip (7180 in chips)
Seat 4: jakey1118 (9564 in chips)
Seat 5: grayszoo (26503 in chips)
Seat 6: VoltUk (7425 in chips)
Seat 7: ytown17 (23635 in chips)
Seat 8: rhino0623 (14445 in chips)
Seat 9: movieman123 (6453 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [9c 8h]
VoltUk: calls 400
ytown17: folds
rhino0623: raises 1600 to 2000
movieman123: raises 4403 to 6403 and is all-in
Martinelli80: calls 6403
Hero: folds
whattheblip: folds
jakey1118: folds
grayszoo: folds
VoltUk: folds
rhino0623: raises 7992 to 14395 and is all-in
Martinelli80: calls 7992
*** FLOP *** [4c Ad Jc]
*** TURN *** [4c Ad Jc] [8s]
*** RIVER *** [4c Ad Jc 8s] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
rhino0623: shows [Kd Kh] (a pair of Kings)
Martinelli80: shows [2h Jh] (two pair, Jacks and Deuces)
Martinelli80 collected 15984 from side pot
movieman123: shows [Ac Kc] (a pair of Aces)
Martinelli80 collected 20659 from main pot
JFS1986 is connected


PokerStars Game #27907880845: Tournament #160529646, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2009/05/06 22:45:09 ET
Table '160529646 15' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Martinelli80 (40730 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero (3743 in chips)
Seat 3: whattheblip (7130 in chips)
Seat 4: jakey1118 (9314 in chips)
Seat 5: grayszoo (26053 in chips)
Seat 6: VoltUk (6975 in chips)
Seat 7: ytown17 (23585 in chips)
Seat 9: JFS1986 (12220 in chips)

grayszoo: posts small blind 200
VoltUk: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Jc Ah]
ytown17: folds
JFS1986: raises 800 to 1200
Martinelli80: calls 1200
Hero: raises 2493 to 3693 and is all-in
whattheblip: folds
jakey1118: folds
grayszoo: folds
VoltUk: folds
JFS1986: raises 8477 to 12170 and is all-in
Martinelli80: calls 10970*** FLOP *** [9h 6c 6h]
*** TURN *** [9h 6c 6h] [Qs]
*** RIVER *** [9h 6c 6h Qs] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JFS1986: shows [Th Ac] (a pair of Sixes)
Martinelli80: shows [8s Tc] (two pair, Eights and Sixes)
Martinelli80 collected 16954 from side pot
Hero: shows [Jc Ah] (a pair of Sixes)
Martinelli80 collected 12079 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 29033 Main pot 12079. Side pot 16954. | Rake 0
Board [9h 6c 6h Qs 8c]
Seat 1: Martinelli80 showed [8s Tc] and won (29033) with two pair, Eights and Sixes
Seat 2: Hero showed [Jc Ah] and lost with a pair of Sixes
Seat 9: JFS1986 showed [Th Ac] and lost with a pair of Sixes

Makes you want to drink...

Send this to the press. And call your local government representatives. Consumers need protection from this type of thing.

Probably should have been posted in BBV.

Oh yeah - this one happened three hands before...

PokerStars Game #27907776596: Tournament #160529646, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2009/05/06 22:41:23 ET
Table '160529646 15' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Martinelli80 (8541 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero (11584 in chips)
Seat 3: whattheblip (7930 in chips)
Seat 4: jakey1118 (10114 in chips)
Seat 5: grayszoo (25603 in chips)
Seat 6: VoltUk (8775 in chips)
Seat 7: ytown17 (23785 in chips)
Seat 8: rhino0623 (14595 in chips)
Seat 9: movieman123 (6603 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Kd Ac]
whattheblip: folds
jakey1118: folds
grayszoo: raises 800 to 1200
VoltUk: calls 1200ytown17: folds
rhino0623: folds
movieman123: folds
Martinelli80: calls 1000
Hero: raises 10334 to 11534 and is all-in
grayszoo: folds
VoltUk: folds
Martinelli80: calls 7291 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (3043) returned to hero
*** FLOP *** [4d 9h Kh]
*** TURN *** [4d 9h Kh] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [4d 9h Kh Tc] [Jc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Martinelli80: shows [Kc Qd] (a straight, Nine to King)
hero: shows [Kd Ac] (a pair of Kings)
Martinelli80 collected 19832 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 19832 | Rake 0
Board [4d 9h Kh Tc Jc]
Seat 1: Martinelli80 (small blind) showed [Kc Qd] and won (19832) with a straight, Nine to King
Seat 2: Hero (big blind) showed [Kd Ac] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 3: whattheblip folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: jakey1118 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: grayszoo folded before Flop
Seat 6: VoltUk folded before Flop
Seat 7: ytown17 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: rhino0623 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: movieman123 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Well, d'uh! Don't you think I did that already? I'm bringing this whole establishment down, man!

I'm fairly certain (someone confirm?) your hole card information is encrypted when it's sent to you, so you shouldn't have to worry about a middleman.

However, trojans on your computer that allow someone else to see what you see ARE an extremely dangerous threat.

Well, that theory is a little too "tin hat" for me... I'm more concerned about the UB/Absolute/paradise issue of super accounts. I would think that doing it in cheap games is better (a little at a time) than going for big scores. The scam would require a fair amount of collusion for it to work well. Win a bunch of quick hands, then donkey them off to another player...

I'm sure it's dumb luck, but I have witnessed a number of really strange all in calls (and pushes) where the players with the worst of it (by a mile) have hit... and it seems to happen in bunches... This was just one example...

Spadebidder brings in distribution analysis of millions of hands and the rigtards bring three hands. Who am I to believe?