Going for Supernova Elite in 5 months! - Internet Poker

Hey guys,
I'm at 17,000 vpps as of RIGHT NOW (July 17th). I decided I want to try to get to supernova elite THIS YEAR. Would anyone be interested in takkings bets against me?

Brad

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07-17-2009 , 08:41 PM

Sly Caveat

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,635

What is your history/games/stakes/profit/etc? Ever made SNE before? What games will you be playing?

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07-17-2009 , 09:08 PM

Stalrock

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 895

Never made SNE; was a 12-16 tabler on Full tilt until i switched to stars last week. Ran at 2.0 bb/100 at 1/2 nl 6 max and 2/4 nl 6 max. I will only be playing 1/2 nl 6 max in this pursuit (24 tables).

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07-17-2009 , 09:10 PM

Stalrock

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 895

maybe toward the end when im comfortable playing 24 tables of 2/4 will i switch to 2/4 when its crunch time.

I have to play approx 1.88 million hands between now and December 31st to get there.

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07-17-2009 , 09:11 PM

Sly Caveat

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,635

There's no way you'll make it.

well, almost no way.

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07-17-2009 , 09:11 PM

Stalrock

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 895

what odds would u be willing to lay me?

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07-17-2009 , 09:17 PM

Dire

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 8,581

1.88 million hands
5.5 months ~ 165 days
11.4k hands / day with zero days off
24 tabling = ~7 hours of grinding per day assuming 70 hands/hour.

Chances of success: ~0
Chances of success if profit>0 stipulated: 0

imo

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07-17-2009 , 09:22 PM

BLAABAR

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,699

Im intrested in taking bets againts you, yes.

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07-17-2009 , 09:26 PM

tercet

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 8,001

pokerpoopy v 2.0?

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07-17-2009 , 09:29 PM

#10

pairtheboard69

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by tercet

pokerpoopy v 2.0?

pokerpoopy had all those additional qualifiers that ****ed him like not using a HUD, etc.

this is pretty easy I def would bet in favor of him.

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07-17-2009 , 09:30 PM

#11

MaxRaises

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 6,510

I would like to bet against you making it.

We would need a 2+2 mod to Escrow/Judge

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07-17-2009 , 09:41 PM

#12

pairtheboard69

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,520

i plan on getting another 1M vpps this year. would anyone like to bet against me also? lol

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07-17-2009 , 10:12 PM

#13

MicroBob

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 61,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dire

If he really is able to play 24 tables of 6-max competently and quickly enough then I don't think 70 hds/hr is accurate. Sure he should be slowing down his own tables as he does this but I just don't see many 6-max tables in the 70/hr range or less.

This is assuming a lot of things for him and I don't think they are safe assumptions to make if he doesn't have any 24-tabling 6-max experience heading into this.

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07-17-2009 , 10:17 PM

#14

Stalrock

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 895

How would we do this properly? Ill take a total of 5k in bet and I havnt figured out odds yet.

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07-17-2009 , 10:27 PM

#15

BeerBottlez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,909

Just play Dario or skilled_sox 2000 times at the $5k HU sngs and you'll be SNE.

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07-17-2009 , 10:34 PM

#16

ShipItMehr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 3,669

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dire

ty Einstein!

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07-17-2009 , 10:36 PM

#17

Adam Monroe

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,073

What is the theoretical hourly of someone 24-tabling $1/2 NL going for SNE? Say 3-4 bb/100.

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07-17-2009 , 10:45 PM

#18

wavegoodbye

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,022

i would def. take action on this bet against you, assuming there are stipulations

i.e. you can't just say you are going to play 1-2, 2-4 and then go and play 1000-5000 HU sng's all day

if you agree to play only 1-2nl and 2-4nl i will give u 3-1 odds...

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07-17-2009 , 10:49 PM

#19

MicroBob

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 61,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adam Monroe

What is the theoretical hourly of someone 24-tabling $1/2 NL going for SNE? Say 3-4 bb/100.

3-4bb/100? Really?

And you can't figure out what the theoretical hourly might be for such a player?

Figure out how many total hands he plays an hour and go from there.

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07-17-2009 , 10:50 PM

#20

Adam Monroe

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,073

Quote:

Originally Posted by MicroBob

3-4bb/100? Really?

And you can't figure out what the theoretical hourly might be for such a player?

Figure out how many total hands he plays an hour and go from there.

Guess my question is really what is the rakeback per hand for SNE for $1/2 NL.

I can maintain 10bb/100 8-tabling $2/4 and $3/6 NL. I figure 3-4 is reasonable for a lower limit. The numbers can be adjusted easily obviously.

This is purely academic as I'd go insane 24-tabling anything for 7 hours a day, but I'm curious.

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07-17-2009 , 10:54 PM

#21

salty7

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 596

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adam Monroe

Guess my question is really what is the rakeback per hand for SNE for $1/2 NL.

I can maintain 10bb/100 8-tabling $2/4 and $3/6 NL. I figure 3-4 is reasonable for a lower limit. The numbers can be adjusted easily obviously.

This is purely academic as I'd go insane 24-tabling anything for 7 hours a day, but I'm curious.

I doubt this; but if true, nice.

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07-17-2009 , 10:56 PM

#22

Adam Monroe

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,073

Quote:

Originally Posted by salty7

I doubt this; but if true, nice.

I've played hrm... 1.2 millionish hands at this limit. Pretty sure I've got my winrate close. Thanks though.

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07-17-2009 , 10:58 PM

#23

Adam Monroe

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,073

I'm just always curious what these mass-tabling players make. I spent 50,000 hands short stacking $2/4 and $3/6 NL just out of curiousity. This might be a similar boredom experiment to try.

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07-17-2009 , 11:04 PM

#24

salty7

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 596

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adam Monroe

I've played hrm... 1.2 millionish hands at this limit. Pretty sure I've got my winrate close. Thanks though.

Are you saying that you have won at 10bb/100 (5ptbb/100) over 1.2 million hands? Am I misunderstanding? That doesn't seem very likely to me. But please show me a HEM screenshot or give me your username so I can PTR or something like that and prove me wrong. It would make my day.

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07-17-2009 , 11:10 PM

#25

MicroBob

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 61,575

Unless we're getting that whole BB vs. bb thing mixed up I don't think you are getting that high a win-rate....and even if it really is 5BB/100 that would likely put you as the very best player in online poker (or very close).

Looking up the highest winning players on 2/4 and 3/6 NL on Stars this year there is nobody in the 10.00 range with 100k or more hands.

There's one guy on FT at 2/4 NL who ran really hot for 70k hands at 17.64BB/100 ($99k).

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