Quote:
Originally Posted by BallPeenHammer
One more question -
I'm not a complete noob to MTTs by any means, but am certainly more of a low-mid stakes MTT player and not someone who understands the kind of spots you mentioned once or twice where a player should be jamming river with his entire range. Obviously I'm sure the situations which would call for this have a lot of variables, but can you point me towards any threads or situations or just... things to think about where I could start to understand that kind of play? I feel like it's something that I'd really like to know more about.
Thanks!
BallPeen--
First, thanks for your very kind words earlier. That's exactly the kind of forum contributor I want to be.
There were two hands where I said that a player should jam or make a big bet with his whole range--Enon's hand on day 5 (that he was kind enough to give details of above) and my hand against Apathy on day 3. Those are very different hands, and there were two fundamentally different kinds of reasons for the two conclusions.
When I thought that Enon should jam his whole range, it was simply because the river bet looked weak. The board had come out with a four-straight and his opponent, a middle-aged guy who had raised preflop and bet both the flop and the turn, made a small bet and looked very uncomfortable. Some players are good actors in this spot, but I was willing to bet that he really hated the board--enough to fold to a raise--yet felt obligated to bet anyway. Also, the stack sizes were excellent for a jam: Enon reports that the guy bet 60k into 240k with roughly 200k behind. That means that Enon was jamming 260k total to win 300k that has already been bet, which is an attractive price against an opponent who is likely to hate his hand. Note also that the other guy was faced with a 200k call to win 520k; those odds are not so good that he will be forced (in his mind) to make a crying call with something like AA or AK. It's possible that there's a hand or two that Enon should call with, but either most or all of his range either (i) can get folds from better hands a lot of the time or (ii) can get value from the other guy's AA/AK those rare times he
does make the crying call.
My hand against Apathy was (a bit) different, and when I said that he should jam the river I meant that I thought that was the game-theoretically optimal thing to do for him. Here I'm heavily indebted to Chen and Ankenman's
Mathematics of Poker, in particular section 14.1, which examines situations where:
(a) One player has just bluff-catchers, and both players know it;
(b) The other player can beat a bluff-catcher with >50% of his hands; and
(c) Stacks are deep.
(Actually, Chen and Ankenman's example is more specific than this, but the generalization is easy to see.)
The idea is that when X's range is much stronger than Y's, and stacks are deep, X should (when he can) bet enough that Y can't call
ever. And when this is the case, simple game-theoretic reasoning lets us conclude that this is the
optimal strategy for each player. (Why would X do anything that lets Y get value on the river, given that he has a way to limit Y to zero value on the river? And since Y has a strategy available to him--folding--that guarantees him zero value, why would he ever let himself get tricked into doing anything else?)
Anyway, this is not exactly what was going on between Apathy and me, but he was close enough to being in X's situation in our hand. The river just hit his range a whole lot better than it hit mine, and we had roughly 1.75x the pot left in the effective stack, enough for him to make it impossible for me to call with bluff-catchers. He ended up betting 75k instead of 200k, but that is probably enough given (i) that it's a tournament and (ii) that he didn't know much about me.
I hope those explanations help.
All my best,
--Nate